In this Hedgeye TV video excerpt, Potomac Research Group Senior Energy analyst Joseph McMonigle weighs in on why Saudi Arabia wants lower oil prices, whether OPEC will call an emergency meeting, and provides an update on how the lifting of Iranian sanctions is affecting the price of oil.
Hedgeye highlights three key points from Ralph Lauren's (unimpressive) quarter courtesy of our veteran Retail analyst Brain McGough.
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Takeaway: Paul Ryan channels his inner William Wallace and Republicans take aim at Marco Rubio.
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Senior Analyst JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.
CHANNELING HIS INNER WILLIAM WALLACE
House Speaker Paul Ryan reiterated his vision for a 'Confident America' yesterday, exhorting Republicans to "Unite the clans!" a la Braveheart. He aims to channel the spirit of his mentor Jack Kemp and move the party towards a bold, aspirational, and above all positive image for the future of the country. He denounced the anger and disillusionment that has been a campaign staple, and is providing a striking counter-narrative. It's what gave Reagan his mandate, Ryan said, and we think that maybe Rubio has picked up on the message, with his recent shift away from the "doom and gloom."
BULLSEYE ON MARCO
Marco Rubio has lacked boots on the ground, but it's Governors Bush, Kasich, and Christie who are all at risk of being trampled in NH. Combined, the three governors have held more than 460 events in the state, all outstripping Rubio who has only held 76 events. Historically, NH has rewarded candidates who have put in more time on the ground; the governors have opened a new line of attack on Rubio -- that he hasn't made the effort and is trying to parachute in at the last minute.
New polls out this morning have Rubio surging to second place or a close third behind Cruz. Third place won't be good enough for Rubio -- he has to show continued progress and run the table on the three governors who have all placed big bets here. The nervous party establishment is looking to pick its candidate quickly, and there's lots of chatter about donors and endorsements on hold until after Rubio demonstrates a clear lead. He's got to win big enough to undercut the rationale behind his rivals' campaigns; and the sooner he can make this a three-way race, the better his chances.
In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question on whether it makes sense being long gold right now. In particular, whether what’s been a good “trade” recently, will ultimately manifest into a longer term “trend.”
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Takeaway: Our Macro team's U.S. #GrowthSlowing call gets stronger each day...
Still unconvinced of the increasing likelihood the U.S. economy slips into outright recession in 2016? What follows is a wrap-up of the latest economic data that's rolling over.
Here's analysis Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough emailed customers yesterday after the latest ISM services and manufacturing data:
"Yet another rate-of-change slow-down today on the #LateCycle segments of the US economy (Consumption and Employment). Our call remains that the GDP, Corporate Profits, Employment, and Consumption data all peaked in 1H of 2015. Now the world has to comp that for another 5-6 months. That’s why US #Recession probability (not certainty) is rising and Bond Yields are crashing."
While we're at it... here are a few other (lackluster) data points that caught our eye this week...
Evolving profit recession...
u.s. CEOs Are Concerned ACCORDING TO REUTERS
"So far this year, the number of companies whose executives have mentioned recession concerns to analysts and investors is up 33 percent from the same period a year ago; the first such increase since 2009. Some 92 companies have discussed a U.S. recession in their earnings calls, according to Thomson Reuters data."
Latest Challenger job cuts data? not pretty
More cause for concern from mccullough below
It's a lot to take in. And while a U.S. #Recession is not a certainty, the daily economic data coming in continues to bolster our call.
We're sticking with it.
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