Why The Likelihood of Recession Is Rising

Takeaway: Our Macro team's U.S. #GrowthSlowing call gets stronger each day...

Why The Likelihood of Recession Is Rising - recession cartoon 12.22.2015

Still unconvinced of the increasing likelihood the U.S. economy slips into outright recession in 2016? What follows is a wrap-up of the latest economic data that's rolling over.

Here's analysis Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough emailed customers yesterday after the latest ISM services and manufacturing data: 

"Yet another rate-of-change slow-down today on the #LateCycle segments of the US economy (Consumption and Employment). Our call remains that the GDP, Corporate Profits, Employment, and Consumption data all peaked in 1H of 2015. Now the world has to comp that for another 5-6 months. That’s why US #Recession probability (not certainty) is rising and Bond Yields are crashing."

Why The Likelihood of Recession Is Rising - ISM data serv

While we're at it... here are a few other (lackluster) data points that caught our eye this week...

Evolving profit recession...

u.s. CEOs Are Concerned ACCORDING TO REUTERS

"So far this year, the number of companies whose executives have mentioned recession concerns to analysts and investors is up 33 percent from the same period a year ago; the first such increase since 2009. Some 92 companies have discussed a U.S. recession in their earnings calls, according to Thomson Reuters data."

Latest Challenger job cuts data? not pretty 

More cause for concern from mccullough below

It's a lot to take in. And while a U.S. #Recession is not a certainty, the daily economic data coming in continues to bolster our call.

We're sticking with it.