Ahead of tonight's Iowa caucuses, we thought we'd bring you a few key insights from Potomac Research Group Senior Analyst JT Taylor. Below is a brief excerpt from Taylor's "Morning Bullets" sent to PRG institutional clients each morning.
"TRUMPING THE COMPETITION?: The Iowa vote will be a referendum on Donald Trump's candidacy; if Trump can convert his massive crowds into turnout at the caucus tonight, then he should notch his first victory. Those hoping for a lot of Trump no-shows will probably be disappointed. He's been at the top of the polls for six (!) full months now, and one shouldn't doubt the enthusiasm. The last Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend showed Trump leading Ted Cruz by five percent, and higher turnout will be to his benefit, not Cruz's.
A win in Iowa would turn the Trump phenomenon into cold reality. In the event he wins Iowa, establishment-wing Republicans worry he'll have enough momentum to roll on through NH and then the Super Tuesday primaries with almost triple the number of delegates than anyone else. Cruz would be the most immediately hurt -- but what could he or the other candidates do to dent Trump in return? Cruz, meanwhile, has made a late shift towards attacking Marco Rubio in ads, rather than the frontrunner."