BREAKING: Hedgeye Macro Team Nails U.S. GDP (Again). Consensus? Not So Much

Takeaway: Old Wall economists completely missed economic reality once again.

BREAKING: Hedgeye Macro Team Nails U.S. GDP (Again). Consensus? Not So Much - GDP cartoon 05.29.2015

 

BREAKING: US GDP hit the 0.7% Hedgeye forecast. We maintained our forecast of between 0.5% to 1.7% Q-o-Q for fourth quarter 2015 GDP all year, even while Old Wall consensus consistently ratcheted it back from 3% in July. 

 

Here's the inglorious breakdown: 

BREAKING: Hedgeye Macro Team Nails U.S. GDP (Again). Consensus? Not So Much - wall street 4q15 

 

In other words, our non-consensus macro team nailed the last five GDP reports while economic reality still confounds Wall Street's pundits. We'll say it again #GrowthSlowing

 

 

 

 

Here's the breakdown of today's GDP release via Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Note all the red in the right-hand column. (That's bad.)

 

 

It's funny. Supposed "blue chip" economists can hold up personal consumption expenditure (PCE) as an economic "bright spot" all they want. But staring at the absolute number of any data release tells you nothing about where we're headed.

 

At Hedgeye, our analysis is more dynamic and based on the year-over-year rate of change. By this measure, PCE is slowing. (That's also bad.)

 

 

The preponderance of economic data – from employment to incomes to PCE growth – is rolling over on a rate-of-change basis. We'll throw in one more metric for good measure: Credit growth.

 

See the chart below. (Again, bad.)

 

Interesting. All of these economic indicators peaked in 1Q 2015. 

 

Coincidence? We think not.

 

 

For investors (particularly long-only investors), the current macro environment presents an especially tough setup. Our Macro team has been highlighting the increasing likelihood of a U.S. #Recession in the 2Q or 3Q of this year.

 

Moreover, as Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough continues to reiterate, regardless of whether our #Recession call is right or not, the U.S. stock market is headed for a 20% correction. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

 

How do you play it?

 

Here are our top Macro ideas: Long bonds (TLT) Utilities (XLU)

 

 

In the meantime, stay (far) away from consensus forecasts.

 


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