Perhaps you saw this headline from the Wall Street Journal over the weekend.
Notwithstanding the headline, the story is seemingly amenable to one of Hedgeye's latest Macro calls – the increasing likelihood that the U.S. slips into a #Recession in 2016.
Then, about halfway down, WSJ holds up the old "ex-Energy everything is fine argument." That was Old Wall's favorite line last year for explaining away why client equity portfolios were crashing. It's false.
Here's Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in the video below on this ex-Energy fallacy.
Now, the WSJ hangs the rest of its analysis on the jobs market – which is "growing briskly" – and supposedly strong consumer confidence. The mistake here is in confusing absolutes with what really drives macro markets and is ultimately more predictive – rate of change.
In the video below, McCullough also dispels of these consumer confidence and jobs market narratives.
Bottom line: Old Wall needs to believe "this time is different" but economic reality always wins out.