Here's a quick look at where we've been and where we're going. As you can see, our contrarian macro team continues to make some pretty epic (and accurate) calls.
1. July's stock market top? We called it. You know what happened after that.
2. Right now we're warning about the increasing likelihood of a full-blown U.S. recession this year.
3. We also made the call on commodity-price #Deflation about 18 months ago... well before it was ravaging investor portfolios.
4. Our #SlowerForLonger (growth) call still holds true, even though the Fed went ahead and raised rates.
5. And, while equities have fallen (which we warned about), our favorite position, the Long Bond (TLT), is outperforming. TLT up over 5% YTD versus down -11.6% for the Russell 2000 and -8.5% for the S&P 500.
6. We've also been questioning the Fed's nonsensical rate hike in the face of an economic slowdown.
7. Then there's China... still having serious issues telling the truth.
8. But have no fear, Super Mario Draghi is here!