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[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown

Takeaway: All active categories except muni bonds saw outflows in the 5 days ending Dec 30th while investors favored passive products and money funds.

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note which was originally published January 7, 2016 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

 

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

Most active products finished 2015 with a dull thud in the 5 days ending December 30th. All categories but tax-free bonds saw outflows during the last week of the year. Domestic equity funds again bled out another $2.9 billion in the final week of the year, ending 2015 with their worst annual outflows on record, losing -$172.2 billion. This compares to the +$144 billion subscription for equity ETFs as the shift from active to passive continued last year. In fixed income, taxable bond funds lost -$6.8 billion in the last week as investors digested the new more active Fed policy. Taxable bonds in aggregate had a rare annual redemption in '15 losing $40 billion last year. Since 2007, only 2013 resulted in an annual redemption in the taxable bond category.

 

Finally, with markets shuddering, investors seeking safety shored up +$16 billion in money market funds, bringing the 4th quarter money market inflow to +$90.1 billion following the +$54.4 billion in subscriptions during the 3rd quarter. 2015 finished with the first annual money fund inflow since 2008 with an annual tally of +$26 billion in cash being moved to the sidelines. The first annual cash increase this cycle is reminiscent to the cash builds of 1999 and 2006 with investors having overallocated to risk assets and then reversing to safety. Overall there is a $1 trillion opportunity for leading cash managers to collect lost funds that have been allocated to stocks and bonds over the past 7 years.


[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI1 large 1 13

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending December 30th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$6.0 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$1.5 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$620 million. The outflow was composed of international stock fund withdrawals of -$3.1 billion and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$2.9 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 41 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 8 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net outflows of -$4.6 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$462 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$926 million. The outflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds contributions of +$2.2 billion and taxable bond funds withdrawals of -$6.8 billion.

 

Equity ETFs had net subscriptions of +$5.5 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.8 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$3.2 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net inflows of +$1.9 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.0 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.



Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2014 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI2

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI3

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI4

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI5

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI6



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI12

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI13

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI14

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI15

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI16



Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2014, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI7

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI8



Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, investors seeking safety contributed +3% or +$171 million to the long treasury TLT ETF.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI9



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI17

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI18



Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive +$2.2 billion spread for the week (-$520 million of total equity outflow net of the -$2.7 billion outflow from fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$741 million (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$20.5 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$19.0 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI10

 


Exposures:
The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Year-End Active Shakedown - ICI11 


MUST-SEE | 5 Key Charts Capturing Our Bearish Market View

Takeaway: From "sell everything" to "buy the dip" ... Wall Street storytelling is all over the map.

MUST-SEE | 5 Key Charts Capturing Our Bearish Market View - bounce cartoon 01.12.2016

 

We've been bearish on stocks since July and consistently bullish on the Long bond (TLT). In related news, we've been right. 

 

Below are five key charts this morning with analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

 

"With the CRB Index closing at 162 yesterday (Oil sub $30, Copper $1.94, Nickel -5.7% on the day!, etc) macro markets are bouncing on those crashes bouncing, not Chinese trade data (Shanghai was -2.4%)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in a note to subscribers earlier this morning. "#Deflation/Recession reports pending on Friday with USA’s PPI and Industrial Production reports."

 

Does this look "transitory" to you?

 

Take a look at copper...

 

meanwhile, Over in Bond Land...

 

"Not much of a bounce in 10yr Yield terms this morning = 2.14% with immediate-term downside to 2.06% this week if we continue to be right on that #Deflation data – looking for the JPM report tomorrow to be bearish on the margin too."

 

 

Pivoting to equity markets

 

Ford (F) is a good example of Old Wall storytelling that investors should buy on "gas prices are low" and "auto sales are good." Nope. That didn't work out so well.

  

Across the world...

 

No matter what you read from mainstream this morning, Chinese export/import data remains decisively bearish TREND. Take a look.

 

What about the rest of Asia? Funny you should ask...

 

We're sticking with our process that's helped our subscribers through these turbulent economic times.

As Keith Is Fond of saying, "Do macro or macro will do you."



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RTA Live: January 13, 2016

 

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Dear Fed, Sorry Deflation Is Not Transitory

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... After this 1-day bounce off the Russell 2000’s crash (20% decline from July) intraday low yesterday, and commodities “bouncing” off 5-13 year lows (CRB Commodities Index down -20% in the last 3 months alone – see 5-year non-“transitory” deflation chart for details), I’m looking forward to swimming with both Potomac and the non-peddled-rate-of-change data. I won’t drown our clients that way."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Dear Fed, Sorry Deflation Is Not Transitory - 01.13.16 EL chart


Swimming With Potomac

“President Can’t Swim.”

-Lyndon Johnson

 

That’s what President Johnson said “if one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River.”

 

For those of you still trying to decipher fact from fiction from Obama’s State of The Union address last night, there is a long history of US Presidents being straight up with people on certain matters.

 

Sometimes to a fault, I’m going to tell you like it is. We built our firm on the principles of transparency, accountability, and trust. And we’re super excited to have announced that we acquired another truth-telling firm, in D.C. based Potomac Research Group yesterday.

 

Swimming With Potomac - potomac

Click here to read more about our PRG acquisition.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

When the President of the United States feels compelled to use a mainstream media stage like #SOTU to suggest his economic critics are “peddling fiction”, you know we’re telling the truth about #Deflation and #GrowthSlowing into the end of his reign.

 

One of the main reasons why I’m so excited to partner with Potomac’s thought-leader in chief, Suzanne Clark, is that she calls it like it is too. She’s built a culture of truth-seekers at Potomac. And, together, we’re going to open Pandora’s box on people who get paid to lie to you.

 

“What’s the truth?”

 

It’s such a basic but differentiating question in this age of people from Wall Street to Washington doing “whatever it takes” to get themselves paid. It’s also the #1 question one of the world’s best macro investors (Ray Dalio) wakes up to every morning.

 

For anyone who has a 10th or 11th grade education in math (the new baseline for Americans being able to understand who is telling the truth), whether the US economy is accelerating or slowing, in rate of change terms, is a trivial matter.

 

Commonly called calculus, or the mathematical study of change, “in the same way that geometry is the study of a shape” (Wikipedia). Unlike political ideologies, rate-of-change is very easy to see on these things we call charts.

 

Whether it’s #Deflation or US #Recession data, you’ll see on Friday that both:

 

  1. US Producer Prices (PPI) continue to TREND (rate of change slowing) bearish
  2. US Industrial Production (IP) growth continues to TREND recessionary

 

To boil this down for who Obama calls the “folks” (are they people who don’t do math? or can only “rich” people do math?), there is a difference between:

 

A)  Growth Slowing from its cycle peak (these are called #LateCycle factors like employment, consumption, auto sales, etc.)

B)  And Recessionary Data – i.e. when the rate of change goes from slowing to negative year-over-year growth

 

Corporate profits, for example, are not only #LateCycle (they peak at the end of an economic cycle like they just did in Q2 of 2015), but critical to understand when they become recessionary.

 

CSX Corporation (CSX) is a $24B railroad company that, right before The Big O called me a peddler, said “with negative global growth and industrial market trends… our earnings are going to be lower in 2016 versus 2015.”

 

Sounds like some truth-telling to me.

 

A railroad is called an “industrial cyclical.” And I’ll be damned if the truth about a stock like CSX is that it peaked when the US Industrial growth cycle did in 2014.

 

An auto company (like Ford) is called a “consumer cyclical.” And they typically outperform industrial cyclicals at the end of an economic cycle. That’s why they’re called #LateCycle stocks.

 

If you bought CSX when Hedgeye went bullish on US #GrowthAccelerating (end of 2012) and sold it when the Industrial Cycle peaked, you made +105%. If you bought CSX “on valuation” (using the wrong #s) when the cycle peaked, you’re down -34%.

 

If you don’t do the macro truth about cycles, the cycle is going to do you.

 

What’s next? Earnings season:

 

  1. It started with an industrial cyclical, Alcoa (AA), hitting a fresh cycle low this week (down -60% from cycle peak in 2014)
  2. And continues with a #LateCycle financial (JPM) reporting tomorrow (still only -15% from its cycle peak in 2015)

 

After this 1-day bounce off the Russell 2000’s crash (20% decline from July) intraday low yesterday, and commodities “bouncing” off 5-13 year lows (CRB Commodities Index down -20% in the last 3 months alone – see 5-year non-“transitory” deflation chart for details), I’m looking forward to swimming with both Potomac and the non-peddled-rate-of-change data. I won’t drown our clients that way.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.06-2.20%

SPX 1
RUT 1010-1087

VIX 19.82-27.93
Oil (WTI) 29.45-34.21

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Swimming With Potomac - 01.13.16 EL chart


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