Stay tuned. We will send out a full analyst report outlining our high-conviction thesis early next week.
"The US stock market has never NOT crashed (i.e. a 20% or more decline from peak – that would get you 1704 SPX from the 2130 #bubble high) when corporate profits go negative for 2 consecutive quarters," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier today in a note to clients.
Editor's Note: The chart above was featured in our recent 73-slide Q1 Macro Themes deck. If you would like more information on how you can subscribe to our non-consensus research please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Four Score and Zero Months ago the current expansion commenced. 0.5 Score months ago growth in the labor market peaked.
Inclusive of the solid monthly gain in December hiring, the trend towards deceleration remains ongoing. The net of a solid NFP print in December is likely more deflation risk.
There’s no dearth in NFP data reporting so we’ll keep it to a quick quadfecta of key takeaways. There’s a visual tour of the employment data below:
Christian B. Drake
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
Takeaway: The US stock market has only had 16 up days in the last 42 – please, don’t blame China.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs...
That's what Old Wall is talking up today.
Thinking like consensus is the biggest risk right now. On today's non-farm payroll number, Old Wall is staring at the absolute number this morning, instead of the rate-of-change. Don’t forget that the US employment cycle peak was a NFP growth rate of 2.3% year-over-year in Q1 of 2015. It’s also the latest of late cycle indicators (put another way, nothing could change our bearish TREND view).
To better understand the year-over-year slowdown in NFP, here's a quick visual summary from Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Take a look at the circled fourth line down, labelled "NFP, Y/Y," with the current reading of 1.88% versus the aforementioned peak of 2.3% in Q1 of 2015.
In other words, this is the last data point you'll see that the bulls can try to hang their hat on. It was a nice ride. It's over.
The S&P 500 appears to be shrugging off the NFP number today anyway. Remember, the US stock market has never NOT crashed (i.e. a 20% or more decline from peak – that would get you 1704 SPX from the 2130 #bubble high) when corporate profits go negative for 2 consecutive quarters. We’ll have that in earnings season that starts next week.
Just look at the chart...
That's why JPMorgan's (JPM) earnings are way more important to me than this today's jobs report.
You won't hear that from anyone on Wall Street though.
Takeaway: FINL store closures worst case gives FL 1.5% in EPS Growth.
FINL announced yesterday that it would be closing 25% of its existing fleet over a 4 year time period. That’s gross closures as the company will be working on the quality of its real estate portfolio to increase its penetration in better quality malls, i.e. more overlap with FL in better markets. What we know – each of the 150 stores earmarked for closure are doing about 1mm bucks per store, about 50% below the company average of $2mm. 65% of those sales are attributed to FINL loyalty members.
If we look at the store footprint overlap by mall between Foot Locker (banner) and Finish Line it’s only 67% (chart 2 below). And our sense is, there is more overlap on the top end of the spectrum compared to the bottom end where FINL will be closing locations. That’s because FL has been extremely prudent over the past 5 years as it stripped capital out the model by rationalizing its store footprint.
All in we get to a $0.03 benefit to FL’s bottom line, and $20mm to the top line per year through FY19 from the door closures assuming a high overlap ratio between the store locations. Less than 1% accretion per year. To get there we assume that FINL recaptures 40% of the lost sales, and 80% of the forfeited share shifts over to FL. We assume a 30% margin for dollars transferred, as FL won’t have to spend up dramatically to win those $. Worst case, assuming FINL recaptures 0% of the dollars lost, and FL gets 100% (ain’t going to happen as NKE pushes its DTC agenda), we could see a $40mm benefit to the top line and $0.06 on the bottom about 1.5% of earnings growth.
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