Jobs, Jobs, Jobs...
That's what Old Wall is talking up today.
Thinking like consensus is the biggest risk right now. On today's non-farm payroll number, Old Wall is staring at the absolute number this morning, instead of the rate-of-change. Don’t forget that the US employment cycle peak was a NFP growth rate of 2.3% year-over-year in Q1 of 2015. It’s also the latest of late cycle indicators (put another way, nothing could change our bearish TREND view).
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/685424878611214336
To better understand the year-over-year slowdown in NFP, here's a quick visual summary from Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Take a look at the circled fourth line down, labelled "NFP, Y/Y," with the current reading of 1.88% versus the aforementioned peak of 2.3% in Q1 of 2015.
In other words, this is the last data point you'll see that the bulls can try to hang their hat on. It was a nice ride. It's over.
https://twitter.com/HedgeyeUSA/status/685459294851051520
The S&P 500 appears to be shrugging off the NFP number today anyway. Remember, the US stock market has never NOT crashed (i.e. a 20% or more decline from peak – that would get you 1704 SPX from the 2130 #bubble high) when corporate profits go negative for 2 consecutive quarters. We’ll have that in earnings season that starts next week.
Just look at the chart...
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/684832097085845505
That's why JPMorgan's (JPM) earnings are way more important to me than this today's jobs report.
You won't hear that from anyone on Wall Street though.