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A Monster Reality Check Is Careening Toward Wall Street

Takeaway: Current Wall Street and Fed forecasts remain way off the mark.

A Monster Reality Check Is Careening Toward Wall Street - z cons

 

It’s not 2008... the first week of the year might actually be worse. So called, "blue chip" Wall Street year-end forecasts aren’t even close to the developing reality in financial markets. Take JPMorgan, for instance. Economists at the bank just said there's a "76% chance of recession by 2019."

 

By 2019? LOL

 

And then there’s the Fed. “We have to react to incoming events and we will react to them,” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told CNBC yesterday.

 

Right… Let's take a closer look at that statement. What about the second straight month of sub-50 (aka contractionary) ISM manufacturing numbers? How about the latest Chicago PMI reading of 42.9? Or how about the existing industrial and earnings recession? 

 

Make no mistake, the Fed is tightening into a slowdown. Period. End of story.

 

Financial markets appear to be coming around to our view. The leading indicator for #GrowthSlowing is the 10-year Treasury (2.20%) minus 2yr (1.01%) and it’s making new lows this morning. In fact, today is a great day for long-term #GrowthSlowing and #LowerForLonger (rates) investors. Long bonds (TLT) are +1.1%.

 

While everyone on Old Wall is positioned for "rate hikes," rates are actually falling. 

 

 

A breath of fresh air (honesty) from former Dallas Fed head Richard Fisher on CNBC yesterday.

 

"We front-loaded this tremendous rally in stocks since March of 2009... It's going to take a little while [for the market] to digest this. So, I wasn't surprised about last year and I wouldn't be surprised if we had a rather fallow performance this year."

 

Let's be crystal clear about this. There is only one Wall Street firm that has been making the non-consensus US #Deflation and #Recession call. That would be us. Meanwhile, the Fed and Wall Street want you to believe that everything they missed in the past year is “transitory.”

 

Nope.

 

Oil, down another -1.3% this morning, has to be the darndest looking “transitory” thing I’ve seen in my macro life – it’s not transitory, it’s called #Deflation – and this will continue to perpetuate a credit cycle that is about to break out (credit spreads) to new cycle highs.

 

 

Getting back to equity markets, after it crashed from its all-time July #Bubble highs, the Old Wall is "downgrading" Apple (AAPL).

 

Thanks for coming out.

 

Lying to people about the economy for your own compensation purposes is fundamentally un-American.

 


MD | BIRTH RECOVERY IN QUESTION | MATERNITY TRACKER DEC15

Takeaway: Maternity slowing is a negative for MD

MD | Maternity Tracker Update December 2015

Based on our data which allows us to track birth (primarily commercially insured and higher income) by state and month, we’ve built a state-weighted index based on MD’s practice exposure.  

MD | BIRTH RECOVERY IN QUESTION | MATERNITY TRACKER DEC15 - MD MT Dec15

MD | BIRTH RECOVERY IN QUESTION | MATERNITY TRACKER DEC15 - MD Nicu vs CDC and MT

Recession, Housing, Birth Recovery in Question

Births remain below potential based on the demographic growth of women of child-bearing age, however, our Maternity Tracker and Current Population Survey (CPS) point to declines in the recent periods.  By our oversimplified arithmetic based on the reported mix shift to government payors, commercially insured births fell by 1% during 3Q15 for MD.  In our Maternity Tracker , trends in Texas are turning negative on a year over year basis with Florida showing its first major deceleration in several months, two of the most critical states in MD’s portfolio.  As our Macro Team (Keith McCullough) detailed yesterday, the risks of a recession in the US during 2016 are increasing rapidly.  Additionally our Housing Team (Christian Drake, Josh Steiner) have an increasingly bearish view of housing market trends, which historically correlates well with birth trends.

Consensus Estimates and Guidance

With the updated Maternity Tracker data through December 2015, we feel more confident in our revenue estimate of $738.3M for 4Q15, marginally below current consensus of $748.0M.  Our estimate assumes same unit volume of -1.2%, flat core pricing, and -2.4% Parity contribution, and $47.5M in revenue from vRad.  Growth coming from other acquisitions should be down sequentially with MD failing to close any additional practice deals during 4Q15 and we are not modeling any contribution from Alegis Revenue Group given the lack of details disclosed. 

 

MD guided to same unit revenue growth of “flat to two percent higher” for 4Q15 net of a parity headwind of “two percent.”  More importantly, we expect it is more likely to hear disappointing guidance for 1Q16 and beyond relative to expectations given the different aspects of our short thesis accelerating from here. 

$750M Senior Notes, But No Deals Yet

MD placed $750M in long term senior notes on December 8th 2015, for “acquisitions and general corporate purposes.” In several conversations we’ve heard commentary regarding the risk to a short here in front of a major acquisition.  We agree with the assessment accepting that we believe the potential deal is already reflected in the current estimates, multiple, and price of MD shares.  We’d note as well that MD failed to close any practice acquisitions during 4Q15 and only recently added 9 physician anesthesiology group earlier this week.

Short Thesis

Our short thesis was first posted mid 2015 and revolved around several points.

#ACATaper – growth in anesthesiology and radiology will be impacted as incremental and pent-up demand from the ACA wanes to a negative contributor in 2016

Maternity Slowdown - as seen in the Maternity Tracker

Acquisition Stress - more competition for deals, higher multiples, lower long term accretion, vRad perhaps reflects more competitive acquisition environment, benefits cited by management are overstated based on industry interview

Multiple Compression - MD shares remain extended despite the risks to growth

MD | BIRTH RECOVERY IN QUESTION | MATERNITY TRACKER DEC15 - 2016 01 05 MD EVEBITDA

MD | BIRTH RECOVERY IN QUESTION | MATERNITY TRACKER DEC15 - 2015 01 06 MD EPS Est Trend

 

Call or email if you have any questions our would like to see the supporting data detailed here.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 

 


HedgeyeRetail (1/6) | Dumb Shoes -- NKE, UA, Jordan v. Yeezy

Takeaway: Crowded connected fitness arena looking for someone to up the ante. Jordan vs Yeezy fight heating up. M - 'Biggest Entertainment Retailer'

UA, NKE, AdiBok – "If Everything is Smart, Then Nothing Is"

 

Connected fitness is all the buzz at the CES conference. Every connected fitness device unveiled its new 2016 hardware, the announcement of the UA HealthBox /‘Smart Shoe’, the release of a NKE Smart Shoe patent drawing, and the New Balance Digital Sport division = a lot of buzz. What’s clear is that the brands have moved completely away from the hardware side of the business after each tried some iteration of a device. UA partnered with HTC, NKE is still working with Apple.

 

This has been a long time coming for UA who started consolidating the connected fitness app market when it bought MapMyFitness in Dec. of 2013. Adi has scooped up its own device maker by the name of Runtastic. The bottom line here is will it help the companies sell more shoes and t-shirts. By getting a better sense of customer’s fitness and diet routines/habits it can’t hurt when it comes to the product creation/marketing side of the business. But, the most important element is still product. It still remains to be seen if the $710mm UA invested in its suite of fitness products will translate to the topline.

 

In reality, if all the brands are launching 'me too' third party hardware with partially branded software product, one has to wonder if these are 'Smart' products at all. Seems to us like what was once Smart is now being dumbed down to 'Average Intelligence'. Nobody has a competitive advantage when the same innovations become the norm. The Brands will argue that there are indeed competitive advantages to their respective product. But we'd bet that 8 out of 10 consumers can't tell the difference from one to the other.

 

Sounds to us like someone has to materially up the ante chip in Connected Fitness in a way to stimulate a new multi-year growth spurt in the category. Our money is on Apple, which will disproportionately help Nike.

HedgeyeRetail (1/6) | Dumb Shoes -- NKE, UA, Jordan v. Yeezy - 1 6 2016 chart1

NKE - Smart Shoe: (http://www.kicksonfire.com/nike-made-patent-to-create-first-smart-shoe/)

UA - Under Armour HealthBox: (http://footwearnews.com/2016/focus/athletic-outdoor/under-armour-smart-shoe-healthbox-fitness-180945/)

 

 

M – Interview With Terry Lundgren. Macy’s ‘biggest entertainment retailer in the world’.

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/department-stores/terry-lundgren-activist-investors-macys-10304980/)

 

“Department stores must be a place for customers to come and get away from the everyday challenges of their lives, and to be entertained when they shop,” Lundgren says. “But I would argue that Macy’s is the biggest entertainment retailer in the world” by virtue of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, annual Flower Show and Fourth of July fireworks.

 

Biggest Entertainment Retailer in the World? Ask a dozen Millennials to list the top Entertainment Retailers. Maybe this is a play on words, but they'll say Cabellas, Disney, Gamestop, Jordan's, Stew Leonard's...etc...

 

NKE - Nike Trolls Kanye West With Yeezy Look-Alike

This fight is heating up. Let's face it, the Jordan Brand is over 100x the size of Yeezy, but it still has the most to lose here. The irony is that Michael Jordan has a pretty bad reputation in the business. You'd never know it by his sneaker sales. But the guy cares about no one but himself. That said, he looks like Betty White compared to Kanye West.

HedgeyeRetail (1/6) | Dumb Shoes -- NKE, UA, Jordan v. Yeezy - 1 6 2016 chart2

(http://solecollector.com/news/nike-entertrainer/)

(http://footwearnews.com/2016/focus/athletic-outdoor/kanye-west-new-song-facts-explicit-yeezy-nike-adidas-listen-180449/)

 

 

NKE - Nike Turns Flyknit Chukkas Into Golf Shoes - $230

This was inevitable. Foot Joy is probably laughing at this -- and the Nike Golf team across campus from Nike's innovation center is chuckling as well.  But the reality is that this sucker will likely sell out. White and Black colorways probably make the most commercial sense.

HedgeyeRetail (1/6) | Dumb Shoes -- NKE, UA, Jordan v. Yeezy - 1 6 2016 chart3

(http://solecollector.com/news/nike-flyknit-chukka-golf-shoe/)

 

Smart Watches

FIT - Fitbit Blaze hopes to out-fancy your Apple Watch with $200 Blaze Tracker coming in March

(http://www.cnet.com/products/fitbit-blaze/)

Casio Aims to Outshine Apple With Planned Smartwatch Models

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/casio-aims-to-outshine-apple-with-planned-smartwatch-models-1452071941)

 

WMT - Wal-Mart Workers on Pistol Patrol as Managers at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in Texas are instructed to ask customers if they have a permit to carry a handgun

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/wal-mart-workers-on-pistol-patrol-as-law-lets-texans-tote-guns)

 

NKE - Merchants selling Clemson gear struggle to keep pace with demand

(http://www.independentmail.com/news/merchants-selling-clemson-gear-struggle-to-keep-pace-with-demand--289af32a-fd94-3dc6-e053-0100007f50-364309001.html)

 

ICON - Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct Buys In at Iconix

(http://wwd.com/business-news/financial/mike-ashley-sports-direct-iconix-umbro-10304962/)

 

SPLS - Staples Launches New Next Day Guarantee Tech Services to Help Keep Small Businesses Running Smoothly

(http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160106005309/en/Staples-Launches-Day-Guarantee-Tech-Services-Small)

 

HD - Former Home Depot exec named CFO at Hancock Fabrics

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/former-home-depot-exec-named-cfo-hancock-fabrics)


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MUST-SEE | Healthcare Q&A - New Best Idea Preview, MD Birth Tracker and More

DID you miss this? Catch the replay

 

 

 

Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman offered a preview of their new BEST SHORT IDEA Allscripts (MDRX) today at 11:00AM ET.

 

They will also shared new developments to their HCA thesis, JOLTS series, MD analysis, Birth Tracker data, and updates to their Position Monitor.

 


[UNLOCKED] Keith's Daily Trading Ranges

Editor's Note: We've made some new enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges - our proprietary buy and sell levels on major markets, commodities and currencies sent to subscribers weekday mornings by CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to view a brief video of McCullough explaining how to use it most effectively.

 

Subscribers now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five are determined by what's flashing on Keith's radar screen and what tickers subscribers are asking about. Click here to subscribe.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.31 2.16 2.25
SPX
S&P 500
1,998 2,047 2,016
RUT
Russell 2000
1,094 1,140 1,110
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,870 4,990 4,891
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,099 18,811 18,374
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,126 10,584 10,310
VIX
Volatility Index
17.28 22.65 19.34
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
98.01 99.77 99.45
EURUSD
Euro
1.07 1.10 1.08
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
118.11 120.30 119.05
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
35.04 38.11 36.14
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
1.89 2.52 2.34
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,059 1,085 1,077
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.04 2.14 2.09
AAPL
Apple Inc.
101 106 102
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
618 660 633
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
749 791 761
DIS
Walt Disney Company, Inc.
99 105 100
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
105 113 107.66
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
92.07 105.65 100.86


NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES

Hedgeye initiated Materials coverage in Q4. Below, we outline the thesis on Newmont Mining. Please email  or if you have more interest in the team's work. 

 

----------

 

Overview

We hosted a Black Book call on December 22nd to outline our thesis on Newmont Mining.  This presentation builds on our November ‘Gold Flush’ Black Book, which outlined a broader bearish thesis for the commodity.  Please ping us back at or reply to this email, and we’ll send along the Presentations and Replays for both black books.  We can also send our EQM Data Set/Model with the data behind our charts and other background.

 

Takeaway:  We expect shares of NEM to trade toward $10/share amid continued gold price pressure, an inability to repeat prior reported production cost declines, and a return to a pre-commodity boom valuation profile. 

 

 

Highlights

 

Gold Not Low, NEM Not Cheap: Gold prices are not even close to low by historical standards; a move away from negative real rates in a disinflationary/Fed tightening environment may prove unhelpful.  Gold prices are highly dependent on investor purchases; investor purchases are holding their historical relationship to gold and trending lower with prices.

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 1

 

  • Commodity Value Trap:  Newmont, like many mining companies, has been a secular underperformer over the longer-term. Shares of low P/E cyclicals in an ongoing downcycle are typically ‘value traps’ that look cheap while continuing to underperform

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 2

 

  • Expectations For Gold Mine Supply Drop Misguided:  Mine supply has historically been underestimated by consensus forecasters.  We expect ongoing mine supply growth in 2016 and 2017. 

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 3

 

  • Newmont Higher Cost Producer, ~$800 Gold Price Would Be A Major Problem: NEM is a higher cost producer with known assets.  We expect the company to struggle relative to competitors in the lower gold price environment. 

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 4

 

  • Cost Progress Not Credible Per HE Adjusted AISC:  We believe that NEM’s lower cost profile has partly come from capitalizing costs based on an excessively bullish long-term gold price assumption.  Gold is not near the $1,300/oz. assumed in the company’s stockpile assumptions, for example.  While not necessarily inappropriate from a disclosure/accounting perspective, the imbedded above market price assumption nonetheless provides an economically unrealistic view of NEM’s production cost profile, as we see it.   

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 5

 

  • Dubious Sustaining Capital Cost Cuts:  Another component of the drop in NEM’s All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) has been lower “sustaining capital” expense.  However, the concept behind this slippery metric is already captured in accounting by “depreciation”.  Not surprisingly, sustaining capital at NEM historically roughly matched depreciation expense.  We do not see these cost reductions as credible since explanations for the subsequent deviation, such as longer mining truck tire life, should either be captured in depreciation or viewed as temporary deviations between cash and accrual metrics.  

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 6

 

  • Another Large Charge With 4Q15 Results:  Frequent large charges tend to boost ‘adjusted’ profits over time.   Stockpile & Ore on leach pad write downs for NEM have been higher than for peers such as Goldcorp and Barrick. 

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 7

 

  • Expect NEM To Trade Toward $10/Share:  Ratios not based on trailing earnings can be helpful in valuing cyclical companies.  

 

NEM, GOLD | MISSED OUR NEWMONT & GOLD BLACK BOOKS? 40% DOWNSIDE FOR NEM SHARES - 8

 

  • 2016 EPS Expectations Far Too High By Our Estimates:  We expect NEM to have flat to slightly negative EPS in 2016, well below consensus of $0.72/share.  The write-downs and impairments in the upcoming 4Q15 results may impact our 2016 expectations.

 

Upshot: We expect shares of NEM to trade toward $10/share amid continued gold price pressure, an inability to repeat prior reported production cost declines, and a return to a pre-commodity boom valuation profile.  

 

 

 


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