Below are five cartoons illustrating our latest thinking on current macro developments.
1. Whatever it takes? The Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda pledged (again) to do “whatever it takes” to stem-off pervasive deflation. The QE track record is clear. It hasn't worked and will not work.
2. See that 7% selloff in China’s Shanghai Composite yesterday? Contractionary manufacturing data reignited global slowdown fears. Note: Our #GrowthSlowing call is now 18 months old.
3. Oil is tanking, down almost 2% today. We continue to reiterate our commodities #Deflation call from Q3 2014.
4. Nope. We didn’t like small caps last year. Still don’t. The Russell 2000 plunged -2.3% yesterday. Today’s small gains won't do much for investors long small caps since June. The Russell is down over 14% since then.
5. A new 12-month low for the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread at 119bps. It’s the flattest the curve has been since the last US recession. That's also been good for our Long bond (TLT) call.
We delivered a whole new batch of Q1 2016 Macro Themes during our quarterly themes call hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough today. To access our macro research or any one of our other verticals please ping firstname.lastname@example.org.