We'll say it again... Growth IS Slowing.
That's been our mantra here at Hedgeye for a year and a half now. As we turn the page on 2015, many on Wall Street woke up to that simple fact this morning.
Global equity markets are almost universally selling off following a contractionary PMI reading out of China coupled with last week's PMI bomb in the U.S. The Shanghai Composite Casino plunged 7% today on the manufacturing report.
Here's some analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers this morning:
"... I guess the year-end markups on no volume lost their luster – China had already devalued Yuan to a 5yr low as the economy continued to slow – today the casino in Shanghai is halted (again) at -7% on the day – the “EM/China Growth” story reminds us of Ned Stark in Game of Thrones (it died early in this cycle call and it is not coming back)"
(From our October Q4 Macro Themes presentation)
In other #GrowthSlowing news...
"Copper tagged for another -2.7% drop to kick off 2016 - friendly reminder that PMIs have not “bottomed” and the bearish credit cycle is still early relative to some of the crashes we’ve seen in commodity linked currencies, countries, and equities," McCullough wrote.
We're watching all of the data, not navel-gazing at the Dow. In addition to #GrowthSlowing, our #Deflation call in commodities, is 18 months old now too.
As the data evolves, so do our Macro calls. That's why tomorrow at 1:00pm ET McCullough is hosting our Q1 Macro Themes conference call. Ping firstname.lastname@example.org for access.
Our top theme for 2016?