The [Unvarnished] Market Year In Review

The [Unvarnished] Market Year In Review - market rip


While Wall Street's bullish storytelling was creative, December looks like another down month for the S&P 500.  Here's Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's analysis, from a note sent to subscribers earlier today, reviewing 2015:


"What a year it was! Worst year for US stocks since 2008; worst year for FX funds since 2011; worst year for Commodity funds ever – and no, it wasn’t “transitory,” as Fed head Janet Yellen is fond of saying – I think it’s all just pricing in the end of what was a mediocre economic cycle."


Here are the numbers, as of yesterday's close:



While we're at it, here's a sampling of the rest of equity markets around the world:



So what does 2016 hold in store for equity investors? In a word, volatility. Here's more analysis from McCullough:


"There’s a big difference between a regime of 10-14 VIX and 15-30; provided that the latter prevails, I think we’re going to see equity markets continue to trade choppy at best and continuing to crash at worst to start 2016."


You won't hear that kind of honesty from Wall Street. Remember, there were plenty of Old Wall equity strategists looking for "Santa Claus rallies" and "Rip-your-face-off rallies" into year-end. 


That didn't happen...


Backing up a bit, to our original question about Wall Street storytelling, how did the supposed "blue chip" forecasters do this year? Well, not to belabor the point but MarketWatch has an excellent story assessing the "usefulness" of Wall Street's year-end forecasts.


After completely missing 2015 – calling for 2,201 on the S&P versus yesterday's 2,063 close – Wall Street did revise its forecast. Down, down, down... Now, 2016 estimates are below the number projected for the 2015 year-end. Hello flip-flop.


The [Unvarnished] Market Year In Review - marketwatch


That's why we called 2015 "A Year Of Epic Face-Plants on Wall Street." Meanwhile, our non-consensus analysts made some particularly prescient calls. Here's a look back at some of our choicest picks from 2015


Finally, heading into 2016, our outspoken CEO offers up his Best Idea in the video below. 

As far as Wall Street is concerned, while it was a good year for storytelling, ultimately reality, and the pull of economic gravity, won out, as it always does. The perma-bull narrative has been flat-out wrong. Don't let Wall Street blow you up again. That's no way to build wealth. 


We've got your back


If you'd like to read any of our analyst's institutional research, ping Or sign up for our free Market Brief newsletter.

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more