[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Record Domestic Equity Outflows in 2015

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note which was originally published December 24, 2015 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

As 2015 comes to a close, domestic equity mutual funds continues to lose capital, ceding another -$7.4 billion to redemptions in the 5-day period ending December 16th. That brings the year-to-date total outflow to -$167.7 billion, $69.8 billion greater than the mean -$97.9 billion annual redemption in all data since 2007. With only a week left in the year, domestic equity mutual funds are maintaining pace in 2015 for their worst year on record.

Despite the aversion to domestic equity funds in 2015, investors favored international equity funds and passive equity ETFs. The former took in +$102 billion in 2015 (above the long term mean), the latter +$128.6 billion (essentially in line with the annual adoption to ETFs).

The rotation into passive products also affected fixed income mandates in 2015, with taxable bond mutual funds putting in a rare annual redemption of -$27.7 billion, well below the average annual subscription since 2007 of +$117.5 billion. Fixed income ETFs continued to gain share adding +$51.8 billion to assets-under-management, +$17.2 billion more than the +$34.6 billion annual average.

Finally, with investors seeking safety, especially in the latter half of the year, money market funds are set to end the year in positive territory, currently at +$1.0 billion in YTD subscriptions versus their -$52.2 billion average annual redemption since 2007, feeding the rise in risk assets. Money funds assets had annual inflows in 1999 and also 2005, preceding risk aversion in 2000 and 2006-2007 in front of the past two Bear Markets..

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending December 16th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$11.1 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$1.3 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$620 million. The outflow was composed of international stock fund withdrawals of -$3.6 billion and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$7.4 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 41 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 8 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net outflows of -$12.0 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$297 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$926 million. The outflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds contributions of +$647 million and taxable bond funds withdrawals of -$12.6 billion.

 

Equity ETFs had net subscriptions of +$8.8 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.6 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$3.2 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net outflows of -$1.2 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.0 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2014 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015:

 

 

 

 

 

Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2014, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

 

Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, investors poured +$1.3 billion or +12% into the energy XLE ETF.

 

Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

 

Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive +$10.9 billion spread for the week (-$2.2 billion of total equity outflow net of the -$13.2 billion outflow from fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$1.2 billion (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$27.9 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$19.0 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

 

Exposures: The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact: