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[UNLOCKED] Keith's Daily Trading Ranges

Editor's Note: We've made some new enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges - our proprietary buy and sell levels on major markets, commodities and currencies sent to subscribers weekday mornings by CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to view a brief video of McCullough explaining how to use it most effectively.

 

Subscribers now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five are determined by what's flashing on Keith's radar screen and what tickers subscribers are asking about. Click here to subscribe.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.32 2.12 2.27
SPX
S&P 500
1,993 2,079 2,064
RUT
Russell 2000
1,108 1,157 1,152
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,895 5,085 5,001
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,507 19,239 18,886
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,163 10,823 10,727
VIX
Volatility Index
14.42 24.89 15.57
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
97.13 99.41 98.37
EURUSD
Euro
1.07 1.10 1.09
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
120.08 121.99 120.88
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
34.94 38.08 37.89
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
1.69 2.03 2.00
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,049 1,084 1,069
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.02 2.15 2.13
AAPL
Apple Inc.
104 110 108
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
642 681 663
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
746 778 768
DIS
Walt Disney Company, Inc.
102 109 105
NKE
Nike Inc.
126 133 128
KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc.
13.72 16.91 16.41

 

 


December 24, 2015

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, with our intermediate-term (TREND) view and the previous day's closing price for each name.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.32 2.12 2.27
SPX
S&P 500
1,993 2,079 2,064
RUT
Russell 2000
1,108 1,157 1,152
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,895 5,085 5,001
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,507 19,239 18,886
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,163 10,823 10,727
VIX
Volatility Index
14.42 24.89 15.57
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
97.13 99.41 98.37
EURUSD
Euro
1.07 1.10 1.09
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
120.08 121.99 120.88
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
34.94 38.08 37.89
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
1.69 2.03 2.00
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,049 1,084 1,069
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.02 2.15 2.13
AAPL
Apple Inc.
104 110 108
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
642 681 663
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
746 778 768
DIS
Walt Disney Company, Inc.
102 109 105
NKE
Nike Inc.
126 133 128
KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc.
13.72 16.91 16.41

 

 


Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS

Takeaway: December 2015, as measured by mortgage purchase app volume, is on track to be the strongest month of 2015 by a wide margin.

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume.

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - Compendium 122315

 

Today’s Focus: New Home Sales for November & MBA Purchase Apps

 

New Home Sales:  New Home Sales rose +4.3% to 490K in November against downwardly revised October estimates.  On a year-over-year basis, sales were up +9.1% with accelerating growth in the South and West offsetting declining growth in the Northeast and Midwest.  

 

Given the serial tendency toward downward revision and a +/-18% margin of error, NHS are one of the most volatile and highly revised housing data series, making it hard to take an overly convicted view of any given month in isolation.  Any TRID related impacts in the November data only adds to the noisiness. 

 

From a Trend perspective, the gain in November brings sales activity in the New Home Market (currently running at  ~9.3% of the total housing transaction volume) back up to the TTM average with Sales growth YTD running +13.9% YoY relative to the corresponding period last year. 

 

In short, the November NHS data is largely trend consistent and with total and single-family starts making higher cycle highs in November, the mean reversion march higher in new construction activity and sales remains modestly choppy but ongoing. 

 

 

Purchase Applications:  Purchase Demand rose +4.10% sequentially  and accelerated to +37.6% YoY, taking the Index reading to 230.8 – marking the fastest pace of growth YTD and the highest index reading since mid-2010.   The strength in latest weeks extends the streak of elevated activity observed in the back half of November/December to-date to six weeks.    Seasonal and peri-holiday noise in the high frequency data is prevalent this time of year but the persistent strength observed over the last month and a half lends some legitimacy to the reported uptick in purchase demand.   We’ll look for confirmatory evidence out of Pending Home Sales data for November due out next Wednesday. 

 

It’s also worth noting that continued housing market normalization with further recovery in conventional mortgaged purchases and a decline in distressed/cash/investor sales would be expected to manifest in a drift higher in purchase application activity but with less than a one-for-one flow through to total transaction volume.  

 

 

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - Purchase Apps Monthly

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - Purchase 2013v14v15

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - Purchase YoY

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - Purchase Index   YoY Qtrly

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - Purchase LT

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - NHS EHS to NHS ratio

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - NHS LT

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - NHS Regional YoY

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - NHS Sales vs SF Starts

 

Trending Higher vs Trend Consistent | Purchase Apps & NHS - NHS Total   YoY TTM

 

 

 

 

About New Home Sales:

Each month the Census Department releases the New Home Sales report, which measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold in the month. The difference between the New Home Sales report and the Starts and Permits report is that New Home Sales only includes single family spec homes built and sold by builders, and does not include condos, apartments, or owner-built units. This is why New Home Sales typically run at roughly half the rate of Starts.

   

 

About MBA Mortgage Applications:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis. 

 

Frequency:

The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Investing Ideas 'Macro Overlay': Happy Holidays!

Happy Holidays investing ideas subscribers!

 

In light of the holiday shortened week, we are giving our analysts a much-deserved break to enjoy the holidays with their families. Expect our next Investing Ideas Newsletter update on Januray 2nd.  

 

 

In the meantime, on today’s Macro Overlay, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough re-ranks our current high-conviction Investing Ideas based on our Macro team's calls for #Deflation and #GrowthSlowing in the U.S. 

 

On a related note, our Macro team has been highlighting the increasing probability that the U.S. economy tips into a recession during the second half of 2016. Keith shares the #1 way to play the coming economic downturn with tips on how to position for the first half of 2016.

 

 

Please enjoy your respective Holidays with family and friends and have a very Happy New Year! 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Dunce Cap

Cartoon of the Day: Dunce Cap - Fed dunce cap cartoon 12.23.2015

 

To be crystal clear, the Fed hiked rates last week into an industrial recession and corporate profit slow-down.   


The Atlanta Fed's New Bullish Narrative? Cutting Its Own GDP Estimate

The Atlanta Fed's New Bullish Narrative? Cutting Its Own GDP Estimate - Fed forecast cartoon 11.13.2015

 

Yes, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart voted for a rate hike. And yes, today the Atlanta Fed cut it's own year-end GDP estimate. 

 

Huh?

 

In a speech on Monday, Lockhart just said that U.S. growth next year would be "improved...but not jumping off the charts...I am not going to overstate the momentum of the economy but it is solid and that is the way [the Fed's rate hike] decision should be interpreted." (Emphasis added)

 

The Atlanta Fed's New Bullish Narrative? Cutting Its Own GDP Estimate - fed atlanta

 

Here's the exact wording from the Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate press release today:

 

"... The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on December 23, down from 1.9 percent on December 16. After yesterday's third-quarter GDP revision and this morning's personal income and outlays release, both from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.6 percent to 2.1 percent. The nowcast for real residential investment growth fell from 8.0 percent to 0.9 percent after yesterday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors."  (Emphasis added)

 

Well, there you have it. We'll stick with our #GrowthSlowing call.


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