The Atlanta Fed's New Bullish Narrative? Cutting Its Own GDP Estimate

The Atlanta Fed's New Bullish Narrative? Cutting Its Own GDP Estimate - Fed forecast cartoon 11.13.2015

 

Yes, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart voted for a rate hike. And yes, today the Atlanta Fed cut it's own year-end GDP estimate. 

 

Huh?

 

In a speech on Monday, Lockhart just said that U.S. growth next year would be "improved...but not jumping off the charts...I am not going to overstate the momentum of the economy but it is solid and that is the way [the Fed's rate hike] decision should be interpreted." (Emphasis added)

 

The Atlanta Fed's New Bullish Narrative? Cutting Its Own GDP Estimate - fed atlanta

 

Here's the exact wording from the Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate press release today:

 

"... The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on December 23, down from 1.9 percent on December 16. After yesterday's third-quarter GDP revision and this morning's personal income and outlays release, both from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.6 percent to 2.1 percent. The nowcast for real residential investment growth fell from 8.0 percent to 0.9 percent after yesterday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors."  (Emphasis added)

 

Well, there you have it. We'll stick with our #GrowthSlowing call.


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