As a follow-up to the the launch of the Hedgeye Materials vertical, please join us TOMORROW (Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 11AM EST) for a review of the bear case on Newmont Mining.
NEM is typically perceived as a ‘premium’ gold miner, but, for one, we aren’t sure there really is such a thing. Long-term, NEM has been a secular underperformer; we expect that underperformance to continue. NEM may struggle with comparatively high costs in a declining gold price environment. We are not convinced that NEM’s 2015 cost reductions reflect the underlying production economics and expect the shares to be further derated by the market in 2016.
- Assumption vs. Reality: A look at key assumptions behind NEM’s costs and those of competitors
- Charges Coming: NEM may need to again adjust asset values lower, potentially with broader implications
- Likely Value Trap: Cyclicals in a downswing typically look cheap as conditions deteriorate
- No Gold Cure: With mine production likely to exceed estimates and gold continuing to move out of favor with investors, we expect gold prices to decline in most major currencies.
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