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USD Ramps & Rates Fall

Client Talking Points

USD

Re-testing the go-zone of $99-100 on the USD Index with the EUR/USD risk range suggesting $1.05 is next. In 2016 “forecast” terms, this remains grossly misunderstood from a foreign currency, commodity, EM, credit, etc. risk perspective.

#DEFLATION

The Canadian Dollar crashed to new lows yesterday and EM ASIA were slammed again overnight (Thailand -2.2%, Indonesia -1.9%. Russian Stocks were down -2.6% (and -12% in the last month) as the CRB Index made a fresh new year-to-date low yesterday down -26% year-to-date.

UST 10YR

2.21% = lows of the week AFTER the almighty “rate hike”- don’t forget that Industrial Production for NOV was down -1.2% year-over-year (recession) and consumer spending put in its 6 year cycle peak (alongside employment gains) in Q1 of this year too.

 

*Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 67% US EQUITIES 2%
INTL EQUITIES 6% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 15% INTL CURRENCIES 10%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

MCD remains one of our top LONG ideas in the restaurants space. All indications are that all day breakfast is working, bringing back old customers and driving growth of new customers. Customers are pairing both breakfast and lunch items together in the lunch and dinner day, part which is helping drive additional sales.

 

McDonald’s Canada opened its first standalone McCafe this month. The much simplified concept intends to appeal to customers by offering both speed of service and low cost. They intend to be faster than their main competitor Tim Hortons and cheaper than Starbucks, carving out their own niche in the market.

RH

MCD remains one of our top LONG ideas in the restaurants space. All indications are that all day breakfast is working, bringing back old customers and driving growth of new customers. Customers are pairing both breakfast and lunch items together in the lunch and dinner day, part which is helping drive additional sales.

 

McDonald’s Canada opened its first standalone McCafe this month. The much simplified concept intends to appeal to customers by offering both speed of service and low cost. They intend to be faster than their main competitor Tim Hortons and cheaper than Starbucks, carving out their own niche in the market.

TLT

Implicit in our long TLT/short JNK bias is an expectation for high-yield spreads to continue along their recent trend of widening throughout the YTD.

 

“The U.S. economy is #LateCycle and the probability of a recession commencing by mid-2016 is extremely elevated – both in absolute terms and relative to the belief held by the overwhelming majority of investors and policymakers. Moreover, the risk of a global recession is also great in this scenario.”

 

The economic cycle doing what it always does (i.e. decelerate into a recession before bottoming and then reaccelerating) is reason enough to be bullish on the long bond and bearish on junk bonds, which are accelerating into full-blown crisis mode (the JNK ETF declined another -2% on Friday and is down -4.1% WoW, -5.8% MoM and -12.7% YTD).

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Real Conversations: A Paradigm Shift In Private Equity  https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/48144-real-conversations-a-paradigm-shift-in-private-equity… @LawrenceCalcano

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Take time: much may be gained by patience.

Latin Proverb

STAT OF THE DAY

Today in 1787, New Jersey became the 3rd state to ratify the Constitution.


December 18, 2015

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, with our intermediate-term (TREND) view and the previous day's closing price for each name.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.32 2.12 2.30
SPX
S&P 500
2,003 2,060 2,041
RUT
Russell 2000
1,106 1,160 1,135
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,901 5,143 5,002
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,533 19,807 19,353
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,122 10,907 10,738
VIX
Volatility Index
17.67 24.87 18.94
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
98.22 99.76 98.64
EURUSD
Euro
1.05 1.10 1.09
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
120.33 123.81 122.68
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
34.13 38.29 36.11
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
1.76 2.02 1.74
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,049 1,079 1,050
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
1.99 2.10 2.04
AAPL
Apple Inc.
106 113 108
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
643 685 670
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
747 782 769
FB
Facebook Inc.
102 109 106
KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc.
13.50 17.48 15.37
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
84.28 119.33 111.38

 

 


Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta

Takeaway: We hosted our latest deep dive BlackBook presentation yesterday on WisdomTree. The call replay and relevant materials are enclosed.

Click HERE to watch the replay of this presentation. 

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF BlackBook invite

Click HERE to listen to the audio replay. Click HERE to access the assosciated slides. 

 

The Wisdomtree business is a very good one that has been smartly launched to gather assets in the market share shift from mutual funds to ETFs. That being said however, expectations are sky high for this small cap company and the stock has substantial growth to backfill to grow into its near 30x forward earnings multiple. We are currently forecasting earnings over -20% below the Street for 2017 and see downside risk in shares.

 

Our main contention is that the important international hedged equity products have a beta construction weakness and actually underperform local benchmarks in local currency:

 

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 2

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 3

 

The proposition then becomes that this benchmark underperformance has to be made up by the firm's rolling currency hedge. Historically, the hedge has consummed the local underperformance however this is risky considering that across cycle there are more instances than not of local currency exposure actually stabilizing foreign equity returns:

 

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 4

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 5

 

The foreign FX products require liquid and favorable interest rate differentials in the non deliverable forward (NDF) market, which mean that only a few currencies and hence geographies qualify for FX hedged products. Currently only the UK pound, the Euro, the Yen, and the Swiss Franc would be available for FX hedged products. Thus, because the company already has product in the Yen and Euro, the firm has likely already launched it most successful funds in our view:

 

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 6

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 7

 

There is a lot of wood to chop to backfill the Street's high growth expectations. The stock sports nearly a 30x P/E before evening thinking about that Consensus is some 20% too high for 2017.

 

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 8

Best Ideas Call REPLAY | WisdomTree (WETF) - Not So Smart Beta - WETF 9

 

 

Please let us know of any questions,

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

 

 


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

FL | THIS IS BAD

Takeaway: e-commerce trends appear to be bifurcating further between Nike and FL as we head into year-end. FL remains Best Idea Short.

Please…somebody explain to us how the charts below are not really bad for FL. Specifically, the online data we track – from a number of sources such as Alexa, Compete, Google, and Comscore as well as our own analysis – shows a continued slowdown in Foot Locker’s online business since the end of the third quarter. This is not just an industry thing, or a category thing. We’re seeing Nike’s web traffic explode to the upside (‘explode’ is a strong word, but when you see the chart you’ll get what we mean), UA and AdiBok tracking well, suggesting that the share shift from traditional retailers to the Brands is taking hold. While the data looks quite ugly for FL, we want to reiterate that this is a fat-tailed transition that won’t play out entirely in a single quarter. But, the negative on-line trends for FL that reared its head in 3Q seems to be carrying into 4Q.

 

As a reminder, FL is at the top of our Best Ideas Short List. While our short thesis goes far beyond a few unfavorable data points, the question around timing has been a big issue for people who agree with our TAIL call, but can’t quite get there over the near term. For many reasons, we think that $4.20 will likely prove to be the high water mark in this economic cycle, and the consensus estimates in years one through three are high by $1-$2 per share. We think that emerging competition from its top vendor, Nike (≈80% of sales), will stifle growth, and leave the company with an earnings annuity somewhere around $3.50-$3.75 per share. Is that worth $64? Not a chance. Not for a company that is Nike’s best off-balance sheet asset. And definitely not when the Street is in the stratosphere approaching $6.00 in EPS (#NoWay). 

 

Importantly, we think people generally misunderstand why the rate of growth between Nike and Foot Locker will be slowing materially. It’s not because Nike hates its largest customer. It’s not because the ‘basketball cycle’ is rolling over (the basketball cycle actually does not exist, at least in the way people think). It is slowing because Nike has largely tapped out its growth inside higher-end US distribution, and simply has to turn to its own DTC platform – which finally exists after nearly a decade of investment. Yes, it used the cash flow from US wholesale growth to fund growth around US wholesale when the time arises. It’s as simple as that. And yes, the time has arisen.  

 

DETAILS

 

TRAFFIC RANK (EX 1): This is primarily made of Alexa data, which shows the year-year change in the web rank for footlocker.com. “Web Rank” is simply a relative measure of footlocker.com’s total traffic by week relative to the average company on the web. Looked at in isolation, the data for a given quarter is rather useless, but on a year/year basis, it becomes quite relevant. Note that FL’s e-commerce growth fell to +29% in 3Q versus +40% in 2Q – marking the first time in two years we saw growth below 30% in this business. The trend in the chart below accurately captured that slowdown. 

 

EXHIBIT 1

FL | THIS IS BAD - FL YOY Traffic Rank Index Change

 

SEASONALITY: It’s important to look at the seasonality of traffic. After all, each retailer has its own cadence on a week to week basis. Our point is that you can’t compare FL vs DKS, as the seasonality of the sporting goods business is different from mall-based athletic retailers. Exhibit 2 shows that we should have seen a notable seasonal upswing in October of 2015, but we really didn’t see much of anything. Just a flatline. The gap between this year and last year is exceptionally tight right now. Too tight.

 

EXHIBIT 2

FL | THIS IS BAD - FL 2014 15 Indexed Traffic Rank

 

BRANDS vs RETAILERS: Exhibit 3 shows the performance (web traffic) of FL vs. a composite of the brands. While all major brands are on a healthy trajectory, Nike makes up for the biggest upswing. Needless to say, look for Nike to put up a big e-commerce number when it reports next week.  Nike will still talk about how they still love their wholesale model, which they do. But that does not mean that they won’t grow around it to put up results shareholders demand.

 

Looked at a different way, Exhibit 4 shows that the traffic spread is growing at an accelerating rate and is sitting at historical peak.

 

EXHIBIT 3

FL | THIS IS BAD - Compete T3M Visitation Trends  FL vs Brands 

 

EXHIBIT 4

FL | THIS IS BAD - Compete Visitation Spread  FL vs Brands

 


Real Conversations: A Paradigm Shift In Private Equity

Is the cloistered world of private equity opening up to more modest investors? In this recent Real Conversations interview, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sits down with former Goldman Sachs partner Lawrence Calcano, a managing partner of the private equity platform iCapital Network. Calcano discusses how his firm’s technology offers private equity funds to wealth managers, registered-investment advisors and family offices who wouldn’t otherwise have enough scale to access them. 


Cartoon of the Day: Meow!

Cartoon of the Day: Meow! - Deflation cartoon 12.17.2015

 

"Investors who haven't understood our #Deflation call (for the past 18 months) got sucked into yesterday's transitory stocks market rally," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier today.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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