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Investing Ideas Newsletter

Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: TIF, JNK, NUS, W, WAB, ZBH, FII, MCD, RH, ZOES, GIS & TLT

Investing Ideas Newsletter - rate hike cartoon 12.16.2015

 

Below are our analysts’ updates on our twelve current high conviction long and short ideas. As a reminder, if nothing material has changed in the past week which would affect a particular idea, our analyst has noted this. We will send CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each ticker in a separate email.

IDEAS UPDATES

TLT | JNK

 

To view our analyst's original report on Junk Bonds click here

 

Our bullish TLT, short JNK investment recommendation is well-documented and the Fed's rate hike has played out as expected during the second half of last week. But the dour outlook on the state of credit markets got worse as even investment grade corporate credit is beginning to crack:

  • Glencore’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s to the lowest level to qualify as an investment grade credit (Baa3)
  • BHP Billiton’s credit rating was put on watch by Moody’s: “The A1 rating the company has held since 2004 is likely to be cut”
  • Kinder Morgan Inc., like Glencore, has a credit rating that sits at the lowest level to qualify as investment grade

Upon aggregating the bank debt of these three massive commodity producers, $120Bn is the notional credit value that might be tiptoeing the “Junk” line by mid-next year. We continue to expect our deflationary outlook to weigh on high yield credit markets into 2016.

 

As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough remarked on The Macro Show on Friday:

 

"In baseball-speak, we’re in the top of the third inning of this credit market move. And in six months, we might be in the seventh inning stretch. The real problem that is accelerating this slow moving nosedive is that everyone in the business of being long Junk is stuck right now and can’t get out. 

 

And that’s why I’m not covering this short junk bond position. No way."

 

Now that the Fed finally hiked federal funds by 25bps into a late-cycle slowdown, the fact that TLT was up 1.8% (Wed-Fri.) on “lift-off” should be concerning to the growth accelerating bulls. After the dovish hike, the U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield (THE GROWTH EXPECTATION PROXY) was down 10 bps (2.3% to 2.2%). And yes, the most telegraphed rate hike ever was dovish.

 

Just look at the Fed’s projections and the language in the FOMC's statement. Yellen, essentially, acknowledged what we have said for ~ a year and a half now:

  • “The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate”
  • “Market-based measures of inflation expectations remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down”
  • “Net exports have been soft”

... And on the Fed’s forward-looking economic projections:

  • The Fed kept 2016 GDP estimates unchanged, and downwardly revised 2017 to 2.0-2.3% from 2.0-2.4%.
  • 2016 PCE Inflation was downwardly revised to 1.2-1.5% from 1.5-1.8%.

 

On this week's data, economic gravity failed to be arrested by the Fed:

  • CPI printed a goose egg “0%” m/m and +0.5% Y/Y
  • Mfg. PMI slowed to 51.3 in a preliminary December reading from 52.8 in November
  • Industrial Production printed -1.2% Y/Y in November which is recessionary territory for the manufacturing side of the economy. Note: November’s number was the first Y/Y decline on a rate of change basis since December 2009. As shown in the chart below, the trend in this series has been one of deterioration for a year now. As Keith McCullough called out in Thursday’s Early Look, “This isn’t transitory, it’s cyclical”

 Investing Ideas Newsletter - 12.17.15 chart

 

For anyone who wants to ignore the industrial side of the economy, Friday’s Services PMI number was also a total bomb:

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - MARKIT SERVICES PMI

 

Markit Services PMI decelerated to 53.7 in December vs. 56.1 in November, and is now decelerating on a sequential, trending, and quarterly average basis

 

Put Manufacturing and Services weakness together for a composite PMI reading that is also decelerating on a sequential, trending and quarterly average basis.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - MARKIT COMPOSITE PMI

NUS

To view our analyst's original report on Nu Skin click here.

 

On Nu Skin (NUS), Hedgeye Consumer Staples analyst Howard Penney has no new update this week. The stock is still a strong short both fundamentally and due to the risks associated with investigations and legal matters.

 

Here's a brief excerpt on NUS from a note Penney sent to institutional clients last Sunday: 

 

"... In terms of open questions, between the end of 3Q15 and the company's investor day (which was 37 days) was there an event that forced management to highlight an additional risk and uncertainty in its SEC filings?  

 

In the recent 8-K, Nu Skin added an additional risk and uncertainty that was not previously there. It reads, “risk that litigation, investigations or other legal matters could result in settlements, assessments or damages that significantly affect financial results.”

 

Conveniently tucked away about three-quarters of the way into the paragraph this language signals to us that the SEC investigation is very real and could pose a threat to them.

 

Although it would be pure speculation to think what the meaning of this is, we believe that the SEC investigation is coming to a head, and could have grown larger than its original scope, which was just looking into charitable contributions made in China."

FII

To view our analyst's original report on Federated Investors click here.

 

Federated Investors (FII) profitability got a boost this week as the Fed boosted short term rates for the first time in 7 years. Even the slight 25 basis point hike improves profitability in the firm’s leading money fund business by +30% into the New Year.

 

In essence, the firm rolls 30-day paper throughout the short term fixed income curves and the new higher yields forthcoming into 2016 will allow the company to claw back some of the waived fees it has extended to its client base in money funds. Year-to-date the company has waived over $300 million in fees. With that firmly in the rearview, it becomes an opportunity set as FII gets higher yield from cash products next year.

 

In the financial sector, FII is the most asset sensitive name we cover, meaning it benefits most from even marginal interest rate hikes.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - FII money

WAB

To view our analyst's original note on Wabtec click here.

 

When you boil our Wabtec (W) short thesis down to its essence, it's really quite simple: 

 

Q: Where will railroad equipment investment go in the next five years?

A: We believe freight rail equipment spending is just starting to enter a multi-year downturn.  It’s a cyclical market, and WAB shares remain priced for growth.  

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - wab nominal

TIF

To view our analyst's original report on Tiffany click here.

 

Shares of Tiffany (TIF) are down 2.5% since the company reported earnings in late November and off 11% from the post earnings rally. When we look at this name over a slightly longer duration this is where we stand: We have no doubts in the quality of the management team but the reality is that there are no obvious margin levers to offset the declining growth profile in the business, especially amidst increased late cycle risks.

 

The price has come off, but so have earnings. It is trading near a peak multiple on our numbers (18x) on peak margins (21%), and peak earnings that are not likely to grow for 2-3 years.

W

To view our analyst's original report on Wayfair click here.

 

Pier 1 Imports (PIR) reported earnings on Wednesday, and the company reported disappointing top-line numbers and echoed similar commentary we’ve heard across the industry about the highly promotional environment during the Holiday season this year.

 

Wayfair (W) reported Five-Day Holiday sales growth of 130% Y-o-Y. Management all but telegraphed a sequential increase from the 3Q results when it said it would up the ante during this holiday season in areas like seasonal décor, housewares, etc.

 

The company realized last year that could play the Black Friday game in areas less tied to furniture and more directly competitive with retailers like Bed Bath, Target, Walmart, Kohl’s, etc. Also, let’s not forget two things:

 

  1. Most people did not know what Wayfair was last Black Friday, and
  2. People don’t use Black Friday as an excuse to buy higher-ticket/margin furniture.

 

We think that W is one of the culprits driving the highly promotional environment, which won’t be good for either product margins or ad expense as it pays to drive traffic to its site in 4Q.

 

The longer-term call is that W is building the infrastructure for a TAM that we think is far overstated. By our math the online market for W categories today is $27bil with upside to $45bil by 2020. That’s a big delta from the $60-$90bil being presented to the Street.

RH 

To view our analyst's original report on Restoration Hardware click here

 

We have to give Restoration Hardware Chairman and CEO Gary Friedman props for his approximately nine minute segment on Cramer earlier this week. Let's face it, him going on what's arguably the most volatile and biased financial media platform, unscripted, is not what we wanted to see. 

 

The risk of fireworks was high.

 

But he capped off a successful day RH (CFO and IR) had on the investor conference circuit by focusing on the real value drivers at Restoration Hardware (RH) -- growth in product concepts, and RH's real estate transformation. The appearance was planned well before the earnings release, by the way, coinciding with a business-focused trip to NYC.

 

All-in, it was a positive event for the stock.

MCD

To view our original note on McDonald's click here.

 

McDonald's (MCD) remains one of our top Long ideas in the restaurants space. Since we initiated our Long call on August 11th at a price of $99, the stock has gone up 17.4%, versus the S&P 500 which is down -4.7%.

 

All indications are that All Day Breakfast is working to drive incremental traffic to the restaurants with people matching breakfast items with lunch/dinner items driving tickets. We are currently running a survey to get a read on the effectiveness of All Day Breakfast and look forward to updating you in next week's edition.

 

We continue to love McDonald’s heading into the new year and maintain our price target of $150. 

ZBH

To view our analyst's original report on Zimmer Biomet click here. 

 

Zimmer Biomet's (ZBH) has been under pressure in recent weeks alongside the XLV and the S&P 500. The fears of a Fed liftoff in the midst of an economic slowdown, high yield distruption, funds shutting down, and slowing growth have all conspired to keep ZBH well below its 2015 peak of $121 and hovering around $100.

 

The BLS reported Non-Farm Payrolls and Job Openings (JOLTS) which are both important markers of underlying healthcare demand generally and orthopedics specifically. For Healthcare employment, growth was stable sequentially in November versus October and remained near multi-year highs of just over +3.0%. For Job Openings in Helthcare, levels recovered sequentially for October, but growth remained flat sequentially after beginning a long 18 month march higher off the 1Q14 lows. Our view is employment trends reflect the underlying patient demand, so the peaking in growth reflects a peak in demand.

 

While the broad market is worried about the Fed liftoff and slowing economic growth, the market seems even more concerned about ZBH’s growth. In the charts we can see expectations for ZBH to growth inline with their recent rate of ~10%. While we believe that is an aggressive growth rate, we may not be alone in a more sanguine view. While 10% growth is in the area code of where consensus expects the XLV to grow going forward, the multiple disparity suggests the market might be more suspicious.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - ZBH NTM PE

 

The NTM P/E for ZBH has opened up a huge multiple discount to their HC peers in recent months. That can mean the market is presenting a great buying opportunity, or the market is skeptical of consensus earnings and growth assumptions. We’re obviously on the skeptical side and would like to believe the discount in the P/E multiple is saying the same thing. 

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - ZBH Growth


Going forward we’ll continue to speak to surgeons about case volume, device pricing, the CCJR, and the ACA. Most importantly, we’ll keep monitoring monthly JOLTS, HC Employment, and our #ACATaper charts. So far, the wave has clearly crested, so grab your board, 2016 is going to be an epic ride.

GIS

General Mills (GIS) is a great stock for volatile times in the market, boasting style factors that we love; large cap, low beta and liquidity.

 

The fundamental business on the other hand has been struggling. GIS is anchored in the slowing center aisles, and it has struggled in large part to meet analyst expectations. We believe this is due, in part, to management’s overly bullish outlook on their own business during the 1Q16 earnings conference call, which they toned down a bit during the 2Q16 call.

 

This quarter was the perfect storm of internally and externally driven pressures that lead to downside in the business. Some of the pressures in the quarter included: 

  • Reduction in merchandise spending due to clean store policies at Walmart, the core contributor to the disappointing cereal performance.
  • The yogurt category was especially competitive in the quarter, Chobani and others heavily merchandised while Yoplait held firm and in turn lost share in the quarter.
  • The 1H of 2016 was also light on innovation and consumer spend (advertising was down 15% YoY) when comparing it to 1H of 2015.

 

The second half of 2016 is chock full of innovation, merchandising and strong advertising that should help lead General Mills back to the leadership position in their categories. We are staying long General Mills and view the near term weakness as a strong buying opportunity for a long-term position.

ZOES  

Zoës Kitchen (ZOES) is down ~15% this week on the heels of a downgrade from Credit Suisse. We view this as overblown. If you are not in the name already, it is highly advisable to take this year-end sale and get in.

 

The Credit Suisse report cited valuation, growth and general industry softness as concerns going forward. The analyst may have a small case on the valuation front, but this company is a differentiated concept that has plenty of room to expand and grow into the valuation. 

 

We reaffirm our long-term bullish thesis on ZOES.


INVITE (NEM) | Happy Assumptions vs. Sad Realities

Please join us on Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 11AM for a review of the bear case on Newmont Mining.

 

INVITE (NEM) | Happy Assumptions vs. Sad Realities - Marketing Image

 

 

Overview

 

NEM is typically perceived as a ‘premium’ gold miner, but, for one, we aren’t sure there really is such a thing.  Long-term, NEM has been a secular underperformer; we expect that underperformance to continue.  NEM may struggle with comparatively high costs in a declining gold price environment.  We are not convinced that NEM’s 2015 cost reductions reflect the underlying production economics and expect the shares to be further derated by the market in 2016.

 

Highlights

  • Assumption vs. Reality:  A look at key assumptions behind NEM’s costs and those of competitors
  • Charges Coming:  NEM may need to again adjust asset values lower, potentially with broader implications
  • Likely Value Trap:  Cyclicals in a downswing typically look cheap as conditions deteriorate
  • No Gold Cure:  With mine production likely to exceed estimates and gold continuing to move out of favor with investors, we expect gold prices to decline in most major currencies.

Dial-in Information will be distributed in the reminder email for this call.

 

Hedgeye Materials


HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed

Takeaway: Exchange activity spiked substantial higher across the board as the Fed adjusted rates for the first time in 7 years.

Weekly and Activity and Quarter-End Wrap Up

All three categories had their most active week of the quarter given trading around the Fed's rate hike and oil hitting new lows. Cash equity volume came in at 8.4 billion shares traded per day, bringing the 4Q15TD ADV up to 7.2 billion, which is +3% higher than 4Q14. Throughout 4Q15, equities' ADV growth over 4Q14 has, for the most part, stayed within a range of flat to +3%.  

 

Futures activity (both on CME and ICE) came in at 24.5 million contracts per day in the most recent 5 days, blending the 4Q15TD ADV to 19.2 million, now +3% higher than the previous quarter and in line with the year-ago quarter. Y/Y comps were difficult for futures this quarter given extraordinary activity levels in 4Q14 stimulated by the threat of a Grexit from the Eurozone. Futures' ADV growth over 4Q14 started the quarter out negative and hit a low of -12% in the period ending October 22. However, volume steadily rose over the course of 4Q15 to the point where it is now in line with 4Q14.

 

Options put up an average of 20.4 million contracts per day this week, blending the quarter-to-date daily average to 16.6 million, -4% lower Y/Y and -8% lower Q/Q. Options ADV growth over 4Q14 was consistently negative throughout 4Q15, usually maintaining a range between -2% and -6%.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon1

  

U.S. Cash Equity Detail

U.S. cash equities trading came in at 8.4 billion shares per day this week. That brings the fourth quarter average to 7.2 billion shares traded per day, a +3% Y/Y growth and -2% Q/Q contraction. The market share battle for volume is mixed. The New York Stock Exchange/ICE is taking a 24% share of fourth-quarter volume, a +1% year-over-year increase, while NASDAQ is taking an 18% share, a -10% year-over-year decline.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon2

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon3

 

U.S. Options Detail

U.S. options activity came in at a 20.4 million ADV this week, bringing the 4Q15TD average to 16.6 million, a -4% Y/Y and -8% Q/Q contraction. The market share battle amongst venues continues to be one of losses at the NYSE/ICE, which has lost -8% of its share year-over-year settling at 19% of options trading currently. Additionally, CBOE's market share sits at 25%, -16% lower than 4Q14. NASDAQ's share of 4Q15 volume has been falling slightly in the past few weeks, bringing it -2% lower than 4Q14. However, at 23%, the exchange's market share is still +13% higher than the previous quarter. Additionally, BATS' 9% share of 4Q15TD volume is +39% higher than in 4Q14. Finally ISE/Deutsche's 15% share in 4Q15TD remains consistent with 3Q15, which brings it to +8% Y/Y growth.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon4

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon5

 

U.S. Futures Detail

CME Group activity came in at 18.0 million contracts traded per day, bringing the 4Q15TD average to 14.1 million, a -5% Y/Y and -2% Q/Q contraction. Y/Y comps were difficult this quarter with ADV growth over 4Q14 hitting a low of -17% in the period ending October 22. However, volume grew steadily thereafter to the point where CME's 4Q15TD ADV is now only -5% below that difficult 4Q14 comp. CME open interest fell to 95.7 million CME contracts pending this week as investors redeemed their December exposures to roll them into January.

 

ICE activity came in at 6.4 million contracts traded per day this week, bringing 4Q15TD ADV to 5.1 million, +17% Y/Y and +20% Q/Q growth. Over 4Q15, Similarly to CME, ICE's QTD ADV dipped down to a low in the week ending October 22. However, Y/Y growth at that point was still significantly positive at +7%. Since then, the QTD ADV has risen to it's current +17% Y/Y growth. Also similarly to CME, ICE open interest this week fell to 66.6 million contracts pending as investors rolled their exposures into January.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon6

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon8

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon7

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon9 

 

Monthly Historical View

Monthly activity levels give a broader perspective of exchange based trends. As volatility levels, measured by the VIX, MOVE, and FX Vol should rise to normal levels after the drastic compression this cycle, we expect all marketplaces to experience higher activity levels.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon10

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon11

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon12

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon13

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon14

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon15

 

Sector Revenue Exposure

The exchange sector has broadly diversified its revenue exposure over 10 years as public entities with varying top line sensitivity to the enclosed trading volume data. The table below highlights how trading volumes will flow through the various operating models at NASDAQ, CME Group, ICE, and Virtu:

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Activity HIKED This Week With The Fed - XMon19 3

 

 

Please let us know of any questions,

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

  

  

 

 Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

 

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.62%

Cartoon of the Day: The Naughty List

Cartoon of the Day: The Naughty List - Kinder Morgan lump of coal 12.18.2015

Why kids are really hoping they're not on Santa's "Naughty List" this Christmas...


McCullough: ‘Sharp and Ugly Reformation’ Headed for Wall Street

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough delivers a fiery response to a subscriber’s question on the staggering level of “negligence and arrogance” from bankers, the Federal Reserve and financial media.

 

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.


Seriously... ANOTHER Themed Shopping Day?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written earlier today by our Retail team. For more information on how you can become a subscriber please send an email to sales@hedgeye.com.

 

* * *

Today is Free Shipping Friday.

 

For starters, did anyone know that this day even existed? It sounds more like an Instagram hash tag than a shopping promotion, but it’s simply another invented day along with the usual suspects (Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Small Business Saturday, Green Monday) intended to create a little extra buzz as we approach the end of the Holiday shopping season.

 

In fairness, the retailers need everything they can get. But on the flip side, if everybody is doing it, is it really a competitive advantage for anyone?

 

The day not only offers free shipping, but guaranteed delivery by Christmas eve. Of over 1064 participating merchants, one notable missing name from the list is KSS, which on its own lowered its free shipping threshold from $75 to $50 a few weeks back and introduced a whole host of Door Buster sales that will hit this Saturday.

 

Seriously... ANOTHER Themed Shopping Day? - mcgough 1

 

One day of free shipping isn't damning for margins by any means, but we think it’s indicative of the inevitable reality that US Retail is moving to 100% free shipping, 100% of the time.

 

It will be interesting to see how the carriers handle the capacity. We've seen the reports noting the higher volume, and the spread in on-time order rates has widened by 2 points vs. last year (see exhibit 2 below). With all the promises being made on delivery time, we could see a lot of disappointed parents on Christmas Day.

 

Seriously... ANOTHER Themed Shopping Day? - mcgough 2


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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