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[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting

Takeaway: The domestic equity outflow streak has maintained the fastest pace on record and is now the third longest running.

Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary research note which was originally published December 10, 2015 by our Financials team. If you would like more info on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

In the 5-day period ending December 2nd, investors withdrew another -$8.0 billion from domestic equity mutual funds, bringing the year-to-date total outflow to -$155.0 billion. Additionally, the table below shows that the current streak of redemptions is running at -$3.9 billion per week, the fastest pace on record which has now aggregated to -$157.8 billion in total drawdown, the second largest in history (we define a streak as being intact unless broken by 4 consecutive weeks of subscriptions). Meanwhile, equity ETFs continue to mop up flows with +$6.6 billion in subscriptions in the most recent 5 days as investors favor passive exposure. We continue to recommend a short position in shares of T. Rowe Price as a way to express this ongoing shift out of active products (see our TROW reports).

 

In other asset classes, total fixed income flows (including mutual funds and ETFs) were moderately weak at -$206 million following Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish testimony. Additionally, investors displayed some risk aversion by shoring up +$18 billion in money market funds last week.

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI19

 

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending December 2nd, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$8.9 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average outflow of -$1.0 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$620 million. The outflow was composed of international stock fund withdrawals of -$890 million and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$8.0 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 42 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 8 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net outflows of -$1.0 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$75 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$926 million. The outflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds contributions of +$918 million and taxable bond funds withdrawals of -$2.0 billion.

 

Equity ETFs had net subscriptions of +$6.6 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.4 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$3.2 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net inflows of +$829 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.1 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI1 large  2  12 15

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.



Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2014 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015:

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI2

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI3

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI4

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI5

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI6



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI12

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI13

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI14

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI15

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI16



Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2014, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI7

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI8



Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, investors withdrew -$367 million or -6% from the long treasury TLT ETF following Fed Chairwoman Yellen's testimony that signaled a high probability of a rate hike later this month.

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI9



Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI17

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI18



Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a negative -$2.0 billion spread for the week (-$2.2 billion of total equity outflow net of the -$206 million outflow from fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$857 million (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$27.9 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$19.0 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI10

 


Exposures:
The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

[UNLOCKED] ICI Fund Flow Survey | 40 Weeks and Counting - ICI11 


REPLAY | Fed Day Live with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

In case you missed it... outspoken Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough hosted a live, in-depth discussion following the FOMC announcement today featuring no-punches-pulled insight and analysis, interactive Q&A, and how to position your portfolio going forward.

 

 


BREAKING: #Deflation Confounds Fed's 'Transitory' Storytelling

BREAKING: #Deflation Confounds Fed's 'Transitory' Storytelling - Deaflation cartoon 12.09.2015

 

Wall Street is finally waking up to our view on #Deflation. (That call is now 18-months old.) Not by choice, of course, they had to wake up... deflation is pervasive.

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough ran through some of the deflationary data in a note to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"The 19 Commodity CRB Index hit a fresh 2015 low of 174 (-24.3% YTD) yesterday, so you’re going to see one of the many dead-cats that have bounced this morning- WTI led that, +1.8% yesterday and +0.5% this am w/ a risk range of $34.05-38.15."

 

Here's the chart...

 

BREAKING: #Deflation Confounds Fed's 'Transitory' Storytelling - CRB index twitter 

The Fed calls these falling prices "transitory." Transitory? Don't forget that the Fed's forecasts are wrong around 70% of the time.

 

Deflation proof? Take a look at the 0.0% CPI month-over-month print this morning. That didn't come as a big shocker to our macro team. We'll see whether deflation proves transitory or not.


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Retail Callouts (12/15): Retail Idea List, Primark, KSS, Gilt

Takeaway: Hedgeye Retail Idea List. Keep an eye on Primark. KSS open 170 hours straight. HBC's Gilt deal not transformative.

Hedgeye Retail Idea List

Retail Callouts (12/15): Retail Idea List, Primark, KSS, Gilt - 12 15 2015 chart1

 

Primark - Can Cool Clothes Get Any Cheaper Than This?

Link: CLICK HERE

Here's one of the better articles we've read about Primark. There's not a whole lot of info in this article that we don't already know. But if you are interested, long or short, in any company that has anything to do with designing, marketing, manufacturing or retailing apparel, footwear and accessories in the US (or globally, for that matter), you pretty much have to read this. How can you NOT keep a constant eye on what will likely prove to be the most deflationary force in softline retail in the next economic cycle?

 

KSS - To open for 170 Straight Hours up from 100 hours last year

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=60706&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2122581)

Our take: We still don't get why KSS keeps its doors open 24hrs a day leading up to the Christmas holiday. For a company that openly admits that it has a problem a) getting people through the turnstiles, b) selling items in categories that people actually want to buy, and c) keeping e-comm from cannibalizing in-store sales, it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to stay open for 170 hours straight. This is the 3rd year now that KSS has kept the doors open all night, starting on the 20th in 2013, 19th in 2014, and the 17th in 2015. Plus it added a whole host of Door Buster deals on the 19th, as if retail needed another dose of Black Fridayesque deals. Allowing a person to shop at 3am (and paying store labor 3x wages for shift differential) is simply not a value driving strategy.

 

Gilt, HBC - In Proposed Sale to Saks Fifth Avenue Owner, Gilt Groupe’s Value Is Slashed

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/hudsons-bay-near-deal-to-buy-online-retailer-gilt-groupe-for-250-million-1450131724)

Our take: HBC taking a page out of the JWN playbook with this proposed acquisition of Gilt Groupe. One thing that has become abundantly clear is that the flash sale model isn't scalable when it can only offer 25 units of a specific product. Maybe the combination of Off 5th inventory will help to alleviate that issue, but there is also the secular trend away from Flash Sales to consider. But at 0.4x ev/sales, it seems like HBC should be able to get some value out of the name brand. But this would by no means be a transformative deal that would launch HBC's on-line platform into the 21st Century.

 

TUES - Tuesday Morning Corporation Announces The Appointment Of Steven R. Becker As CEO

(http://ir.tuesdaymorning.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=946840)

 

MW - Moody’s revised its ratings outlook for Men’s Wearhouse to negative from stable.

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/specialty-stores/mens-wearhouse-moodys-10297086/)

 

Ayr to Spin Off From Bonobos

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/direct-internet-catalogue/ayr-bonobos-spinoff-andy-dunn-10297102/)

 

No surprise, Mobile traffic up this Holiday season.

Retail Callouts (12/15): Retail Idea List, Primark, KSS, Gilt - 12 15 2015 chart2

 

Toys ‘R’ Us - New Strategy 'Full and Chunky'. Sounds like a great margin strategy.

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/toys-r-us-plays-with-a-fresh-strategy-1450141526)

 

UPS, FDX, AMZN - Holiday Online Orders Taking Longer

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/holiday-online-orders-taking-longer-study-says-1450102912)

 

VFC - The North Face uses artificial intelligence to engage with customers

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/north-face-uses-artificial-intelligence-engage-customers)

 

Neiman Marcus hit by department store slump

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/neiman-marcus-hit-department-store-slump)

 

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Watch Out, Recession Risk Rising

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to subscribe.

 

"... This, of course, will be the 1st time the Fed raises rates into Corporate Profits #Slowing (math people: rate of change) since 1967. And while the punditry on “it’s only 25 beeps” was loud in October, most of that complacency has turned into economic concern." 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Watch Out, Recession Risk Rising - 12.15.15 EL chart


Dovish Pig Hike

“It takes courage to be a pig.”

-Stan Druckenmiller

 

That’s one of the best money manager one-liners of all-time. It probably makes the linear-econ-academic types cringe. I like that too. Per a more polite economist, Lasse Heje Pedersen, in Efficiently Inefficient:

 

“Others go for a more diversified and risk managed approach, arguing instead that bulls get rich. Bears get rich. But pigs get slaughtered.” In his interview with George Soros (Druckenmiller’s former partner), Soros “explained that he too puts significant emphasis on risk management but he feels that one should go for the jugular in rare cases…” (Pedersen, pg 12)

 

If the Federal Reserve was running a hedge fund, and they’re so convicted in the idea that #Deflation is “transitory” and the US economy isn’t slowing, why not go for the jugular tomorrow and raise rates by 50 basis points?

 

Dovish Pig Hike - deflation 500 pound gorilla

Click here to join Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough live on The Macro Show at 9am. 

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Are you kidding me – 50 beeps? “How about an 1/8th of a point, Keith?” Or “what if the Fed raises by 25 beeps and signals they could start cutting rates after that?” Or “what if they don’t raise at all?”

 

That’s my inbox.

 

Post the Russell 2000 falling to -7.5% YTD (and -13.9% since July) yesterday, not one email (and believe me, I get a ton of them) is asking me about the upside in rate policy right now. They already tried the Ex-Energy, Ex-Credit, Ex-2000 Stocks thing. And it didn’t work. So, finally, for the 1st time this year… (drumroll)… every question is about the downside.

 

So, wouldn’t a Dovish Pig Hike be bullish?

 

Bullish – you know, as in ramp the “reflation” trade one more time into “year-end” baby! If Janet just goes back to what she really is (The Mother of All Doves), why can’t we have a Santa Rally? Why not? Pretty please. Do it for the kids!

 

After risk managing the last 2 US economic cycle tops:

 

  1. 1
  2. 2007-2008

 

I have no doubt in my mind that the Old Wall can drum up a new narrative on why US stocks can never go down. If you follow this morning’s macro message in the US Equity futures, it goes something like this:

 

  1. Dollar Down on a Dovish Hike
  2. Oil up another +0.5% “off the lows” (post a +1.8% bounce yesterday)
  3. Higher Gas Prices To Stimulate the US Consumer

 

Oh stop, Keith. Ok. I will. Because the storytelling at this point has reached the level of one of these (fictional) "Choose Your Own Adventure" books I used to read as a kid. “If you’d like to call rate hikes bullish, go to page 67 – if you’d like to call a rate-hike-reversal to dovish, go back to page 12.”

 

This, of course, will be the 1st time the Fed raises rates into Corporate Profits #Slowing (math people: rate of change) since 1967. And while the punditry on “it’s only 25 beeps” was loud in October, most of that complacency has turned into economic concern.

 

On the intimate relationship the profit cycle has with the economic cycle, my friend (former JP Morgan Strategist) Doug Cliggott wrote to me last week that we got “bad, bad data this week”:

 

“Profits of non-financial corporations were down -5% vs. Q3.2014, and their debts were up +7% vs. Q3.2014.  This 1200 bps gap between debt growth and profit growth is the widest we have seen since 2007.  As we talked about in September -- bad things tend to happen when debt growth is a lot faster than earnings.

 

The Fed data also show a violent {75%} slowdown in Q3 net share buybacks. That no doubt played a central role in the equity downdraft during Q3 ... a huge buyer went away.

 

My guess is this is a central theme for 2016 -- contracting corporate profits and much weaker cash flows mean very low share buyback volumes compared with the past four or five years. So U.S. equities will be "missing" a big buyer with no obvious, or less-than-obvious, cast of characters standing in the wings to step in and take their place.”

 

By the “data”, Doug was referring to the Q3 2015 Flow of Funds data (i.e. the Fed’s data!).

 

While it’ll take courage to do the Dovish Pig Hike thing tomorrow (i.e. the most dovish rate hike in US history), don’t doubt that Yellen will opt for that. All the while, keep on doubting that central planners can’t bend and smooth economic gravity anyway.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.13-2.33%

SPX 2003-2048
RUT 1101--1154

VIX 18.71-24.86
USD 96.60-99.64
Oil (WTI) 34.05-38.15

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Dovish Pig Hike - 12.15.15 EL chart


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