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Retail Callouts (12/15): Retail Idea List, Primark, KSS, Gilt

Takeaway: Hedgeye Retail Idea List. Keep an eye on Primark. KSS open 170 hours straight. HBC's Gilt deal not transformative.

Hedgeye Retail Idea List

Retail Callouts (12/15): Retail Idea List, Primark, KSS, Gilt - 12 15 2015 chart1

 

Primark - Can Cool Clothes Get Any Cheaper Than This?

Link: CLICK HERE

Here's one of the better articles we've read about Primark. There's not a whole lot of info in this article that we don't already know. But if you are interested, long or short, in any company that has anything to do with designing, marketing, manufacturing or retailing apparel, footwear and accessories in the US (or globally, for that matter), you pretty much have to read this. How can you NOT keep a constant eye on what will likely prove to be the most deflationary force in softline retail in the next economic cycle?

 

KSS - To open for 170 Straight Hours up from 100 hours last year

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=60706&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2122581)

Our take: We still don't get why KSS keeps its doors open 24hrs a day leading up to the Christmas holiday. For a company that openly admits that it has a problem a) getting people through the turnstiles, b) selling items in categories that people actually want to buy, and c) keeping e-comm from cannibalizing in-store sales, it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to stay open for 170 hours straight. This is the 3rd year now that KSS has kept the doors open all night, starting on the 20th in 2013, 19th in 2014, and the 17th in 2015. Plus it added a whole host of Door Buster deals on the 19th, as if retail needed another dose of Black Fridayesque deals. Allowing a person to shop at 3am (and paying store labor 3x wages for shift differential) is simply not a value driving strategy.

 

Gilt, HBC - In Proposed Sale to Saks Fifth Avenue Owner, Gilt Groupe’s Value Is Slashed

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/hudsons-bay-near-deal-to-buy-online-retailer-gilt-groupe-for-250-million-1450131724)

Our take: HBC taking a page out of the JWN playbook with this proposed acquisition of Gilt Groupe. One thing that has become abundantly clear is that the flash sale model isn't scalable when it can only offer 25 units of a specific product. Maybe the combination of Off 5th inventory will help to alleviate that issue, but there is also the secular trend away from Flash Sales to consider. But at 0.4x ev/sales, it seems like HBC should be able to get some value out of the name brand. But this would by no means be a transformative deal that would launch HBC's on-line platform into the 21st Century.

 

TUES - Tuesday Morning Corporation Announces The Appointment Of Steven R. Becker As CEO

(http://ir.tuesdaymorning.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=946840)

 

MW - Moody’s revised its ratings outlook for Men’s Wearhouse to negative from stable.

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/specialty-stores/mens-wearhouse-moodys-10297086/)

 

Ayr to Spin Off From Bonobos

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/direct-internet-catalogue/ayr-bonobos-spinoff-andy-dunn-10297102/)

 

No surprise, Mobile traffic up this Holiday season.

Retail Callouts (12/15): Retail Idea List, Primark, KSS, Gilt - 12 15 2015 chart2

 

Toys ‘R’ Us - New Strategy 'Full and Chunky'. Sounds like a great margin strategy.

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/toys-r-us-plays-with-a-fresh-strategy-1450141526)

 

UPS, FDX, AMZN - Holiday Online Orders Taking Longer

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/holiday-online-orders-taking-longer-study-says-1450102912)

 

VFC - The North Face uses artificial intelligence to engage with customers

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/north-face-uses-artificial-intelligence-engage-customers)

 

Neiman Marcus hit by department store slump

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/neiman-marcus-hit-department-store-slump)

 

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Watch Out, Recession Risk Rising

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to subscribe.

 

"... This, of course, will be the 1st time the Fed raises rates into Corporate Profits #Slowing (math people: rate of change) since 1967. And while the punditry on “it’s only 25 beeps” was loud in October, most of that complacency has turned into economic concern." 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Watch Out, Recession Risk Rising - 12.15.15 EL chart


Dovish Pig Hike

“It takes courage to be a pig.”

-Stan Druckenmiller

 

That’s one of the best money manager one-liners of all-time. It probably makes the linear-econ-academic types cringe. I like that too. Per a more polite economist, Lasse Heje Pedersen, in Efficiently Inefficient:

 

“Others go for a more diversified and risk managed approach, arguing instead that bulls get rich. Bears get rich. But pigs get slaughtered.” In his interview with George Soros (Druckenmiller’s former partner), Soros “explained that he too puts significant emphasis on risk management but he feels that one should go for the jugular in rare cases…” (Pedersen, pg 12)

 

If the Federal Reserve was running a hedge fund, and they’re so convicted in the idea that #Deflation is “transitory” and the US economy isn’t slowing, why not go for the jugular tomorrow and raise rates by 50 basis points?

 

Dovish Pig Hike - deflation 500 pound gorilla

Click here to join Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough live on The Macro Show at 9am. 

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Are you kidding me – 50 beeps? “How about an 1/8th of a point, Keith?” Or “what if the Fed raises by 25 beeps and signals they could start cutting rates after that?” Or “what if they don’t raise at all?”

 

That’s my inbox.

 

Post the Russell 2000 falling to -7.5% YTD (and -13.9% since July) yesterday, not one email (and believe me, I get a ton of them) is asking me about the upside in rate policy right now. They already tried the Ex-Energy, Ex-Credit, Ex-2000 Stocks thing. And it didn’t work. So, finally, for the 1st time this year… (drumroll)… every question is about the downside.

 

So, wouldn’t a Dovish Pig Hike be bullish?

 

Bullish – you know, as in ramp the “reflation” trade one more time into “year-end” baby! If Janet just goes back to what she really is (The Mother of All Doves), why can’t we have a Santa Rally? Why not? Pretty please. Do it for the kids!

 

After risk managing the last 2 US economic cycle tops:

 

  1. 1
  2. 2007-2008

 

I have no doubt in my mind that the Old Wall can drum up a new narrative on why US stocks can never go down. If you follow this morning’s macro message in the US Equity futures, it goes something like this:

 

  1. Dollar Down on a Dovish Hike
  2. Oil up another +0.5% “off the lows” (post a +1.8% bounce yesterday)
  3. Higher Gas Prices To Stimulate the US Consumer

 

Oh stop, Keith. Ok. I will. Because the storytelling at this point has reached the level of one of these (fictional) "Choose Your Own Adventure" books I used to read as a kid. “If you’d like to call rate hikes bullish, go to page 67 – if you’d like to call a rate-hike-reversal to dovish, go back to page 12.”

 

This, of course, will be the 1st time the Fed raises rates into Corporate Profits #Slowing (math people: rate of change) since 1967. And while the punditry on “it’s only 25 beeps” was loud in October, most of that complacency has turned into economic concern.

 

On the intimate relationship the profit cycle has with the economic cycle, my friend (former JP Morgan Strategist) Doug Cliggott wrote to me last week that we got “bad, bad data this week”:

 

“Profits of non-financial corporations were down -5% vs. Q3.2014, and their debts were up +7% vs. Q3.2014.  This 1200 bps gap between debt growth and profit growth is the widest we have seen since 2007.  As we talked about in September -- bad things tend to happen when debt growth is a lot faster than earnings.

 

The Fed data also show a violent {75%} slowdown in Q3 net share buybacks. That no doubt played a central role in the equity downdraft during Q3 ... a huge buyer went away.

 

My guess is this is a central theme for 2016 -- contracting corporate profits and much weaker cash flows mean very low share buyback volumes compared with the past four or five years. So U.S. equities will be "missing" a big buyer with no obvious, or less-than-obvious, cast of characters standing in the wings to step in and take their place.”

 

By the “data”, Doug was referring to the Q3 2015 Flow of Funds data (i.e. the Fed’s data!).

 

While it’ll take courage to do the Dovish Pig Hike thing tomorrow (i.e. the most dovish rate hike in US history), don’t doubt that Yellen will opt for that. All the while, keep on doubting that central planners can’t bend and smooth economic gravity anyway.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.13-2.33%

SPX 2003-2048
RUT 1101--1154

VIX 18.71-24.86
USD 96.60-99.64
Oil (WTI) 34.05-38.15

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Dovish Pig Hike - 12.15.15 EL chart


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

The Macro Show Replay | December 15, 2015

 


December 15, 2015

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, with our intermediate-term (TREND) view and the previous day's closing price for each name.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.33 2.13 2.23
SPX
S&P 500
2,003 2,048 2,021
RUT
Russell 2000
1,101 1,154 1,115
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,902 5,043 4,952
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,505 19,390 18,883
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,099 10,668 10,139
VIX
Volatility Index
18.71 24.86 22.73
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
96.60 99.64 97.65
EURUSD
Euro
1.05 1.11 1.10
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
120.22 122.29 121.01
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
34.05 38.15 36.27
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
1.85 2.06 1.90
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,050 1,080 1,059
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.02 2.12 2.11
AAPL
Apple Inc.
111 116 112
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
642 668 657
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
746 784 762
FB
Facebook Inc.
102 107 104
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
89.53 99.38 94.14
KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc.
13.23 17.66 16.00

 

 


2015...Was It All Good?

Client Talking Points

RUSSELL 2000

If you Ex-Russell (2000 stocks), Ex-Energy, and Ex-Credit, 2015 was all good! The Russell 2000 is down -7.5% year-to-date and, more importantly, down -13.9% since July – the internals of the U.S. stock market were as clear a signal as credit was.

CRB INDEX

The 19 Commodities Index hit a fresh 2015 low of 174 (-24.3% year-to-date) yesterday, so you’re going to see one of the many dead-cats that have bounced this morning. WTI oil led that, +1.8% yesterday and +0.5% this morning with a risk range of $34.05-38.15.

UST 10YR

The UST 10YR had a 10 basis point bounce to 2.24% ahead of the Fed tightening into a slow-down (1st time they’ll hike into a corporate profit slow-down since 1967) and now all we are receiving emails about is how it’s a “one and done” and “they’ll raise but then cut”… at least we all know now what any tightening does (even 1 beep) to macro market expectations.

 

*Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough live in the studio at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 76% US EQUITIES 2%
INTL EQUITIES 4% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 12% INTL CURRENCIES 6%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

MCD remains one of our top LONG ideas in the restaurants space. All indications are that all day breakfast is working, bringing back old customers and driving growth of new customers. Customers are pairing both breakfast and lunch items together in the lunch and dinner day, part which is helping drive additional sales.

 

McDonald’s Canada opened its first standalone McCafe this month. The much simplified concept intends to appeal to customers by offering both speed of service and low cost. They intend to be faster than their main competitor Tim Hortons and cheaper than Starbucks, carving out their own niche in the market.

RH

This RH quarter is going to draw a Mason Dixon line between the Bulls and the Bears. The key factors that the Bulls (including us) need to see were profoundly present – giving us confidence that revenue will double, that we’ll see a 16% operating margin, and $11 in earnings power. In addition, RH beat the quarter, delivered 33% EPS growth in what should be the slowest growth quarter of the year, and it took up 4Q revenue guidance based on what it’s seeing so far this quarter (to 20%+).

 

The Bears got a nice little gift in the form of weaker Gross Margins due to promotional activity, and renewed concerns about management. The reality is that this is a transformational growth story that will change on the margin more often than it doesn’t. Based on our confidence in the earnings power at play here, we’d use any weakness as an opportunity to buy.

TLT

Implicit in our long TLT/short JNK bias is an expectation for high-yield spreads to continue along their recent trend of widening throughout the YTD.

 

“The U.S. economy is #LateCycle and the probability of a recession commencing by mid-2016 is extremely elevated – both in absolute terms and relative to the belief held by the overwhelming majority of investors and policymakers. Moreover, the risk of a global recession is also great in this scenario.”

 

The economic cycle doing what it always does (i.e. decelerate into a recession before bottoming and then reaccelerating) is reason enough to be bullish on the long bond and bearish on junk bonds, which are accelerating into full-blown crisis mode (the JNK ETF declined another -2% on Friday and is down -4.1% WoW, -5.8% MoM and -12.7% YTD).

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Why Raising Rates (Even One Basis Point) Right Now Is a Really Bad Idea https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/48071-why-raising-rates-even-one-basis-point-right-now-is-a-really-bad-ide… via @hedgeye

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Who aims at excellence will be above mediocrity; who aims at mediocrity will be far short of it.

Burmese Saying

STAT OF THE DAY

196 nations participated in climate talks on Saturday and agreed to a deal that hopes to limit the warming of our world to 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. According to the deal the developed world will provide $100 billion a year to help developing countries switch from fossil fuels to greener sources of energy and adapt to the effects of climate change. 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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