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Takeaway: Our tracker is seasonally declining, but not a concern yet. However, we're still cautious about staying long into the 2016 guidance release


  1. SEASONAL BUT MUTED DECLINE: Our LNKD JOLTS tracker declined sequentially into the first month of 4Q15, which is expected given seasonality in LNKD's selling environment.  That said, our focus on our tracker over the next two quarters is more about magnitude than direction; the former is fairly muted QTD.  As a reminder, our LNKD Talent Solutions TAM analysis suggests that the bulk of that TAM is in the upsell opportunity (ARPA) vs. new account volume (see 2nd note below for detail).  
  2. STILL MULLING THE 2016 GUIDANCE RELEASE: Our concern is not LNKD's fundamentals, but rather a conservative mgmt team that probably isn't willing to box itself into guidance that is can't confidently raise throughout the year.  From here, we'll be monitoring our tracker (1-2 update prior to guidance), and keeping an eye on the EUR/USD since Fx was LNKD's single largest headwind this year (despite all the noise around Display).  We may stay long into the guidance release if Fx pressure abates early into 1Q16.

See the notes below for supporting detail/analysis on our LNKD Long thesis and post-print thoughts.  Let us know if you would like to disucss.  

Hesham Shaaban, CFA


LNKD | Tracker Update (Talent Solutions) - LNKD   ARPA vs. JOLTS 4Q15 1

LNKD: Thank You Santa (3Q15)
10/30/15 09:26 AM EDT
[click here]

LNKD: New Best Idea (Long)
07/14/15 08:00 AM EDT
[click here]