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December 4, 2015

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, with our intermediate-term (TREND) view and the previous day's closing price for each name.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.38 2.08 2.33
SPX
S&P 500
2,046 2,109 2,049
RUT
Russell 2000
1,163 1,209 1,170
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,055 5,159 5,073
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
19,608 20,091 19,939
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,409 11,548 10,789
VIX
Volatility Index
14.39 18.45 18.11
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
96.52 101.02 97.63
EURUSD
Euro
1.05 1.07 1.06
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
122.36 123.86 122.53
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
40.02 43.01 41.27
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.14 2.31 2.19
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,044 1,082 1,061
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
1.98 2.09 2.06
AAPL
Apple Inc.
115 119 115
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
645 684 666
PCLN
Priceline.com Inc.
1,221 1,305 1,280
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
75.86 100.11 93.66
MCD
McDonald's Corp.
112 116 113
P
Pandora Media, Inc.
12.16 14.85 12.63

 

 


The Macro Show Replay | December 3, 2015

 


OPEC & EXPECTATIONS

Takeaway: OPEC cut or not, the risk is to the upside

Before reading our expectation on the likely course of action from OPEC (we expect no action), the next few charts should be more concerning for USD Longs/commodity shorts than OPEC jawboning pre-meeting:

  1. In the first chart below, going into today, commodities have been crushed, yet protection is most expensive NOW (OVX back over 50). The market is heavily short commodities
  2. Volatility expectations for this year’s meeting are grossly higher than last year – protection is near its most expensive point since summer of 2014 (tighter stops on lower volatility expectations causes more volatility (last year’s 10%+ down day post OPEC meeting)
  3. The Commitment of Trader’s Report from the CFTC suggests the market was heavily short commodities and long dollars into this week. That doesn't get unwound in one day. A catalyst to take commodities lower from here is hard to find with renewed rate hike expectations. 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Commodity positioning

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Implied vol in WTI

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Dec Fed Funds

 

We’re seeing the risk to one-way consensus positioning front and center, as outlined in a note earlier today titled Is This the Beginning of the Great Unwind of USD Consensus Longs?

This story looks a lot like the end of August pre- Jackson Hole and rate “lift-off” expectations. You could see more of what you’re seeing today on a bad jobs report tomorrow, and this move would be exacerbated if the Fed decides to push a rate cut.  

----------

Last year at this time the world was contemplating whether or not OPEC would conspire together in an attempt to move global energy markets. We wrote about the unlikeliness of that happening (OPEC CUT? NOPE. ) The point of the note was to dispel the relevance of OPEC quotas. It’s worth a read as a primer.

A cut was expected by many at $73 on WTI. Now, at $41, the expectation is that OPEC quotas will remain the same at 30MM B/D. For the significance of quota levels, see the chart below which shows that:

  • Out of the 48 months over the last four years that OPEC quotas have been set at 30MM B/D, OPEC collectively has produced under that quota in just 4 months (8.3% of the time)
  • Since the beginning of 2014, production has averaged more than 1MM B/D above the collective OPEC quota level
  • Any reason for production below quota levels has not been voluntary. At the end of 2013, a civil uprising reminiscent of the Libyan Revolution in 2011 was successful in reducing Libyan production by over 1MM B/D in several months (That accounted for two of the months below official OPEC quotas)
  • Of the 9 of 12 OPEC producers in the global production table below, only 2 of them has reduced production Y/Y
  • Of the 4 largest producers in OPEC, production is up double digits in all but Saudi Arabia where production is still up significantly. That’s a market share story:
    • Saudi Arabia: +8%% Y/Y
    • Iraq: +27% Y/Y
    • U.A.E.: +10% Y/Y
    • IRAN: +14% Y/Y

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Quota to Production Price Differential

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Global Crude Production Monitor

 

If Saudi Arabia had any plans to cut production they probably wouldn’t be racing to cut official selling prices to Asia into 2016. On a spread to the Oman/Dubai benchmark, Saudi Aramco undercut that spread in both light and heavy crude for January:

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Saudi Aramco OSP

 

Keeping a grip on dwindling market share is the goal. In a commodity-producing business, a low-cost producer (Saudi Arabia) with the most reserves is not incentivized to cut production. OPEC’s global market share is about 36% currently, but they hold 60-70% of the world’s proven reserves.  

Like last year, Russia has already said it has no interest in complying with collective production cuts or even attending the meeting.   

Most of OPEC’s spare capacity is with Saudi Arabia. The way they see it, they are doing their job. Given any need to accommodate Iran post sanctions, it would be hard to envision lower targeted quotas unless it was purely a smoke and mirrors exercise to boost prices in the short-term. As outlined in last year’s note, OPEC ANNOUNCEMENTS have an ability to move spot prices for about 15-20 days, but there is no evidence that production levels are at all influenced.

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - OPEC vs. Saudi Spare Capacity

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Saudi Spare Capacity

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - OPEC Market Share

 

We think the argument the Saudi Arabia would cut production despite the fact that they are a low cost producer with endless reserves (and all of the spare capacity in OPEC) is just newsiness. FX Reserves are only down 12% from an August 2014 high, which is hardly a dent with oil prices declining 56% over that same time period. Prices could remain low for years, and they’d be in good shape.

 

OPEC & EXPECTATIONS - Saudi Arabia FX Reserves

 

Deflation has taken a hold of the market for the last 18 months, and the catalyst to reverse deflation’s dominoes will be behaviorally and policy-driven. Look for a real catalyst with tomorrow’s jobs report. A bad one could perpetuate the currency move seen today.

 

As always we welcome any comments or questions.

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst  


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Cartoon of the Day: Look Out Whoville!

Cartoon of the Day: Look Out Whoville! - Rate hike Grinch 12.03.2015

 

"... Yellen was grasping for #LateCycle employment reasons to raise rates," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "Never mind the data – she really wants to hike."


Dear Jim Cramer, How About Kinder Morgan? | $KMI

Takeaway: Our Energy analyst Kevin Kaiser has been spot on with Kinder Morgan.

Here's what Jim Cramer had to say back in August 2014.

 

“It turns out we were stubborn and we were right, and Hedgeye was flippant and disrespectful and wrong. We chose to believe in Rich Kinder, and not in his critics, because we believed him when he always said his companies are "companies run by shareholders for shareholders." It looks like it wasn't worth waiting for the market to prove Hedgeye right -- because, alas, when it comes to Kinder Morgan and today's huge bid, it never, ever will be.” – Jim Cramer, “Cramer: Kinder’s Triumph,” 8/11/14

 

Dear Jim Cramer, How About Kinder Morgan? | $KMI - kmi kramer

 

Here's what Jim Cramer had to say yesterday.

 

“With the headwinds ahead of it, it's become seriously undervalued here at $21. And I'm recommending it, as well as buying it myself.” – Jim Cramer “Dicker/Cramer: Kinder Morgan Down 7% Today -- Now Is When You Buy,” 12/2/15

 

Cramer's track record speaks for itself. So does ours (see here and here).


McCullough: ‘Buy European Equities Now? Absolutely Not’

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to two subscriber’s questions about the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate and whether to buy European equities now.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

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