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GDP, USD and the UST 10YR

Client Talking Points


In other news...consensus will try to ignore into year-end comp. The Atlanta Fed cut its GDP forecast closer to Hedgeye’s yesterday, taking Q4 to 1.4% - reminder that Q4 will be the slowest year-over-year growth rate of 2015 (half of where it was at the cycle peak) #GrowthSlowing.


If the Fed was data “dependent”, they’d follow what the Bond market did yesterday. But we doubt they will – the Federal Reserve hasn’t raised rates with the ISM < 50 in 2 decades, FYI – you go Janet, you go!

USt 10YR

Smack down day for rates (post back to back 48s on PMI and ISM reports) taking the UST 10YR to 2.16% and compressing the Yield Spread to year-to-date lows of +124 basis points – as you can see in this chart, long-term risk managers have had economic gravity right #GrowthSlowing.


*Tune into The Macro Show with Macro analyst Darius Dale and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation


Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration

We added McDonald's to Investing Ideas on August 11th. Since then shares of McDonald's have risen over 16% compared to a 0.2% return for the S&P 500.


As Restaurants Sector Head Howard Penney wrote right around the time we added McDonald's (MCD), "We continue to get more bullish every time we talk to the company, franchisees and/or customers which we have polled via conducting surveys. We are going to be looking at a much different company 1-3 years from now. Urgency has been instilled from the top down by new CEO Steve Easterbrook," according to Penney. "This ship is in gear and headed north. 2015 will be the last time this stock is below $100."


We believe that RH is to Home Furnishings what Ralph Lauren is to Apparel and what Nike is to Athletic Shoes. That’s a meaningful statement given that RH has only 3% share of a $140 billion relevant market.


RH is the preeminent brand in the space. We think that RH is in second inning of a game that may ultimately prove to be a double header. We believe the company will add $3 billion in sales over 3-years and climb to $11 in EPS. The earnings growth and cash flow characteristics to get to that kind of number would support a 30+ multiple. In the end, we see a stock in excess of $300.


The consumption side of the economy is arguably the most important, as its 69% of U.S. GDP. From a rate-of-change perspective, consumption growth decelerated in October, and consumer confidence is waning along-side it. That's why we would like to reiterate our Growth Slowing=Long TLT call.


To be clear, the consumption side of the economy had been a point of strength over the last several months. We’re not calling for a crash in household consumption, but the comps (comparison vs. prior reporting period) are important in rate-of-change analysis. The next four quarters of comps for Real PCE growth are the most difficult since Q3 2008 while the next four quarters of comps for CPI are the easiest since the four quarters ended in 4Q11. Simply put, both are headwinds for the consumer and we expect that the consumption component of the economic equation will continue to decelerate.

Three for the Road


Join Now: Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Live Q+A


Free access: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/47812-healthcare-analyst-tom-tobin-live-in-the-studio-today-1-00pm-et-il… … cc @HedgeyeHC @HedgeyeHIT



Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probably reason why so few people engage in it.

Henry Ford


The U.S. ISM Headline figure dropped sub-50 for 1st time since November 2012 to 48.6. New Orders also slide below the expansion line to 48.9.  

Cartoon of the Day: Reality Strikes Back

Cartoon of the Day: Reality Strikes Back - Yellen Yoda cartoon 12.01.2015


As the steady stream of poor (recessionary?) economic data continues to come in, the Fed remains hell-bent on battling reality and raising rates into an economic slowdown.


BREAKING: Atlanta Fed Drops GDP Forecast, Now In-Line With Hedgeye

Following today's latest round of #GrowthSlowing data, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (once again) ratcheted back it's fourth quarter U.S. GDP estimate to 1.4%. This is down from 1.8% just last Wednesday and its 2.2% forecast from less than two weeks ago.


Here's the Atlanta Fed's current estimate (and Wall Street consensus) versus Hedgeye:


BREAKING: Atlanta Fed Drops GDP Forecast, Now In-Line With Hedgeye - atlanta fed


.... And the Atlanta Fed's accompanying analysis...


"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.4 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 25. The decline occurred this morning after the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau."


Sound familiar? 


We've been a bit more explicit.


BREAKING: Atlanta Fed Drops GDP Forecast, Now In-Line With Hedgeye - darius tweet GDP


(See Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's latest commentary in "Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. [But The Fed Probably Will Anyway]")


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.37%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.32%

Deflation: Who Warned You First?

Behold the beauty of the timestamp below.


During the September 18, 2014 broadcast of The Macro ShowHedgeye CEO Keith McCullough warned about ... (drumroll please) slowing global growth, deflation and the effects of a strengthening U.S. Dollar.


Check out this 2-minute clip.



Retail Callouts (12/1): TGT Site Issues & KSS Online Stats, Cyber Monday

Takeaway: Target website crashes again, while WMT plans another 1.1bn e-com investment next year. KSS Thanksgiving Week Stats - High Y2Y Usage.

TGT - Target website crashes again. WMT investing $1.1bn in e-comm. How much does TGT need to spend to catch up?


Our Take: This is the 2nd time this year that TGT experienced website outages. The good news is that traffic volume was the highest the company has seen all year by a factor of 2x, driven by a 15% off all website purchases promotion amongst other Cyber Monday deals. The bad news -- TGT online sales account for only ~3% of the annual sales volume and the company is looking to grow this channel at a 40% CAGR over the long term (something it's been unable to do in year 1). It's pretty obvious that TGT, who has been the perennial laggard in this channel ever since it took it's dot.com business in house from AMZN in 2011, needs to invest in the backend in order to grow this channel, which in our mind means margins are going down. That won't be cheap especially in light of the $1.1bn WMT has already committed to spending next year.


KSS - Thanksgiving Week Stats - High Y2Y Usage


Our Take: These stats are important, though there is no historical context to contextualize the numbers that KSS released yesterday, but here are a few of the key ones.

1) 600 million page views over the 7 day period through Thanksgiving, Black Friday and the Holiday weekend. Based on other streams of data we know the total visitor count was ~61mm consumers calculated using 10 page/visits per user. That means the conversion rate was less than 5%.

2) We know the bargain hunting/price sensitive customer shops on Black Friday, which is especially the case at KSS. That, we'd argue, explains the high Y2Y ratio. Especially given the fact that Y2Y shoppers were given 20% off entire purchase coupons and free shipping over $25 (usual shipping discount is $75).

3) Non-credit sales have outcomped credit sales in 2 of the past 3 quarters (no disclosure on last call), which is notable in that the Y2Y rewards program was in year one of its nationwide rollout. Credit has carried the comp for the past 5 years plus as the program went from 50% of sales to 60% keeping SG&A artificially low. Based on the 70% Y2Y usage stats during Thanksgiving week, we'd expect to see some credit cannibalization as shoppers double up on points using the rewards program 20% discount and cash back offers, etc. on National credit cards instead of the KSS card.


Cyber Monday Results:

Retail Callouts (12/1): TGT Site Issues & KSS Online Stats, Cyber Monday  - 12 1 2015 chart1 D


B&M Store Sales Fell 4.7% Over Thanksgiving Weekend As Traffic Continued to Decline



AMZN - Devices sales strong over Black Friday Weekend

Fire tablet sales this holiday shopping weekend up more than 3x year over year

Amazon Fire TV sales on Amazon this weekend up more than 6x year over year



UA -  Navy unveils new uniforms and custom helmets for each position


Retail Callouts (12/1): TGT Site Issues & KSS Online Stats, Cyber Monday  - 12 1 2015 chart2

Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway)

Takeaway: For the record, we're not getting bullish (on growth) anytime soon.

Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - ISM blast off


An already tough year for Wall Street's U.S. economic bulls just got tougher. The steady stream of poor (recessionary?) economic data continues to come in. 


Here's what you need to know right now.


Earlier this morning on The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough cited “the most important chart” to look at today highlighting the fits and starts in the 10-year Treasury this year.


Here’s the chart and an abridged transcript of McCullough’s insights:


Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - ism 10yr


“… Coming out of the spring time, the Fed says ‘We’re seeing greenshoots. We’re going to raise rates.’ The green line goes all the way up to 2.5% and a bunch of hedge fund managers start talk about the 10 year going to 3%.


Then, on economic data slowing well through August and September, the 10-year proceeds to go back to 2%. But, in October, the data bounces and the 10-year goes up. The Fed says ‘O my god, we’ve got to raise rates.’


Ever since the data has slowed so the arrow goes back down again.


If we were to pull back this chart you would further in time you would see lower highs from a longer term perspective. So, again, the Fed is fighting economic gravity and October was a head-fake.”


What does this mean for investors today?


“What the Federal Reserve is trying to do now is get the red line to go back into green line. That has been very unnatural for the market.


So that’s basically what’s happened in the past two weeks. The 10s and 2s spread has compressed, which means the long end of curve is compressing relative to short end. Essentially, the Fed goes to raise rates and the short end goes up but the long end says I don’t like this, the economic data is bad.”


Check out the epic spread compression between 10yr and 2yr Treasurys which we’ve dubbed “The Ultimate Growth Slowing Indicator”:


Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - 11.30.15 EL chart


Following today's horrible ISM manufacturing print, the gap between the 10yr and 2yr compressed some more. McCullough called this out on The Macro Show prior to the report’s release.


Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - ism tweet


“Today’s ISM number was one of the few numbers, in October, that didn’t bounce. This ISM report is pretty important report because last month it came in at 50.1, one notch away from looking as contractionary as Dr. Copper looks or Emerging Markets, or anything in junk bonds.


All of that stuff still looks about as bad as it did in July. So here’s another opportunity for you to reset yourself and set up for the next 3 month move as opposed to the one month head-fake that we had in October.”


Here’s a brief update McCullough wrote after the ISM report. 


Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - ISM


“See the ISM bomb of 48.6? But no worries – if you back out company’s selling prices alongside strong dollar/weak demand deflation, and don’t look at US Retail Sales and/or consumption growth slowing from Q1 cycle peak – all good.”


And then there's this data point doozy from America's top CEOs:


Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - ism other


We've been alerting subscribers to U.S. and global #GrowthSlowing for a while now. You won't hear about any of this from Old Wall perma-bulls, or the Fed for that matter.


Fed head Janet Yellen seems hell-bent on raising rates into slowdown.


Raise Rates Into Recessionary Data? Bad Idea. (But The Fed Probably Will Anyway) - ism tweet breaking



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