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Monday Mashup - CHART 1

We added Pinnacle Foods (PF) to our SHORT bench this week. We believe that the acquisition of Boulder Brands will not prove to be as lucrative as management is laying it out to be. We are going to be doing more research into the name over the coming weeks as we solidify our thesis.

RECENT NOTES

11/24/15 NUS THOUGHT LEADER AUDIO REPLAY

11/24/15 THOUGHT LEADER CALL MATERIALS | NUS | ON NOTICE

11/18/15 CAG | SMOOTH MOVES

11/13/15 NUS | SHOW ME THE MONEY!

11/13/15 NUS | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION REPLAY

11/10/15 HAIN | THE COMPETITIVE ISSUES ARE JUST BEGINNING

11/05/15 BDBD | ADDING IT TO THE LONG BENCH

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Food and organic stocks that we follow outperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was up +1.1% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Amira Natural Foods (ANFI) and Boulder Brands (BDBD) posting increases of +30.9% and +14.4%, respectively. Boulder Brands’ significant increase was due to them entering into an agreement to be acquired by Pinnacle Foods. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were Snyder’s-Lance (LNCE) and Mead Johnson (MJN), which were down -1.7% and -2.0%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

XLP VERSUS THE MARKET

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is BULLISH in the TRADE and TREND duration.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

Food and Organic Companies

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

Monday Mashup - CHART 8

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

Damn the data – it’s all about central planning events this week. Yellen and Draghi have a busy schedule!

  1. EURO – down another -0.5% last wk (-12.4% YTD vs USD) and down again this morning as the USD Index ramps > 100; Commodity markets don’t like this at all as the CRB Index remains in crash mode, -20.1% YTD
  2. EM – as long as you only look at the Nasdaq, everything is fine – EM and LATAM stocks deflated another -0.6% and -2.4% respectively last week and EM Asia (Indonesia -2.5% overnight) isn’t responding well to #StrongDollar either
  3. YIELDS – super spike in the short-end (2yr = 0.95%) continues to flatten he curve (10yr minus 2yr testing YTD lows at 128bps wide this am) – so the Fed can tighten into a slow-down and perpetuate the late cycle slow-down by doing so

SPX immediate-term risk range = 2045-2109; UST 10yr Yield 2.18-2.28%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst