P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV)

Takeaway: The Register punted the second question, but this wan't really a major event to begin with, especially since P has all but conceded defeat.


  1. REGISTER PUNTS QUESTION 2: The CRJs had asked the Register whether it was allowed to distinguish royalty rates by the type of copyright owner.  This was really a question of the major labels vs. independents, which can't command the same pricing as the majors.  The Register replied suggesting that this isn't a question that it should be addressing , but also stated that CRJs should adopt a single rate structure since no party involved argued for one that distiguished between licensors during the proceeding.
  2. ISN'T THIS A WIN FOR P? Not really.  While the majors may get dinged since a single rate could capture the independent's lack of pricing power, this is really a non-event for P.  The majors control roughly 70-80% of all music that is streamed.  So the difference would have been P paying a higher rate on ~75% of its tracks and a lower rate on the independent tracks, or likely weighted average blended rate that essentially capture this dynamic.  
  3. DEC 15th: The legal deadline for the CRB's decision.  We've laid out all the reasons why we believe P has the weakest position (i.e. Merlin) in this proceeding in the links below.  Whether you agree with our Web IV analysis or not, it's important to understand what's embedded in the current street assumption of down to flat rates.  The CRJs would not only have to bless the Merlin deal, they would have to overweight it.  Given that P has essentially blown up its business model prior to the decision (first link below),  we'd be careful to assume as much.


See charts and notes below for supporting detail/analysis on P's model and Web IV.  Let's us know if you have any questions or would like to discuss further.


Hesham Shaaban, CFA



P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV) - P   Cash   Commitments 2

P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV) - P   pre 1972 

P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV) - P   Web IV fallout 1

P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV) - P   Web IV fallout 2

P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV) - P   Leverage Slide

P | Register Response = Non Event (Web IV) - P   Cost structure slide 2


P | Changing Its Tune (Strategic Update Call)

11/17/15 08:35 AM EST

[click here]


P: Can We Still Be Friends? (3Q15)

10/23/15 08:14 AM EDT

[click here]


P: It's All About the Benchmarks (Web IV)
10/02/15 12:22 PM EDT
[click here]


P: Fool's Gold (Web IV)
09/21/15 02:05 PM EDT
[click here]


P: Losing the Critical Debate? (Web IV)
04/08/15 08:53 AM EDT
[click here]

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more