Crash! Boom! Bang! [Commodity Crash Continues]

Takeaway: In case you hadn't noticed, commodities are in a bear market.

The crash continues...


Crash! Boom! Bang! [Commodity Crash Continues] - z crash


In a note to subscribers this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough (once again) highlighted the developing commodity bear market:


"The crash in Copper (-1.8% this am to $2.02) continues and Oil is down another -3%, testing $40 WTI (again) – hardly the green shoots a supply/demand bull is looking for, but I’m probably being too bearish looking at fact vs fiction."


It's no coincidence that the Copper and Oil price crash coincided during a week of U.S. dollar strength. The U.S. dollar index was up +0.6%, and +10.3% YTD, after ECB President Mario Draghi said, "We will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible." That sent the Euro -1.2% on the week to -12% YTD.


This strong dollar event is just as deflationary a force as it was during the summer.


Consequently, things like Copper have plummeted. Copper is off 28% year-to-date.


Crash! Boom! Bang! [Commodity Crash Continues] - copper 1


It's happening all throughout commodities. The CRB index is down 20% year to date.


Crash! Boom! Bang! [Commodity Crash Continues] - 11.23.15 EL chart


Here is a look at some other commodities:

  • Wheat prices dropped another -1.6% on the week, taking it back into crash mode at -20.8% YTD 
  • Nickel deflated another -5.1% week-over-week, taking its crash to -41.5% YTD
  • Oil (WTI) continued to crash, closing down another -1.2% week-over-week at -30.9% YTD


***In related news, Saudi Arabia announced earlier this morning that it is ready to work with other countries to stabilize the price of Oil.


Crash! Boom! Bang! [Commodity Crash Continues] - Oil cartoon 11.20.2015


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more