RECENT NOTES
11/18/15 CAG | SMOOTH MOVES
11/13/15 NUS | SHOW ME THE MONEY!
11/13/15 NUS | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION REPLAY
11/10/15 HAIN | THE COMPETITIVE ISSUES ARE JUST BEGINNING
11/05/15 BDBD | ADDING IT TO THE LONG BENCH
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Food and organic stocks that we follow underperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was up +2.6% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Amira Natural Foods (ANFI) and Smuckers (SJM) posting increases of +10.6% and +6.9%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were United Natural Foods (UNFI) and WhiteWave Foods (WWAV), which were down -5.9% and -4.5%, respectively.
XLP VERSUS THE MARKET
QUANTITATIVE SETUP
From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is BEARISH in the TRADE duration, but BULLISH in the TREND duration.
Food and Organic Companies
Keith’s Three Morning Bullets
US stocks had their 3rd up day in the last 13 (Friday) and volume was -14% vs. it’s 1yr avg:
- USD – another #StrongDollar week in the bag (+0.6% USD Index to +10.3% YTD) after Draghi Devaluation sent the Euro -1.2% on the wk to -12% YTD – this is as deflationary a force as it was in the summer-time – FICC markets get that – Equities, not so much
- COMMODITIES – crash in Copper (-1.8% this am to $2.02) continues and Oil is down another -3%, testing $40 WTI (again) – hardly the green shoots a supply/demand bull is looking for, but I’m probably being too bearish looking at fact vs fiction
- UST 2YR – spike continues to 0.93% this morning as the Fed abandons the “data dependence” thing and goes with whatever the SP500 is doing instead – USD and short-term rates say DEC hike – so does the Yield Spread, compressing 9bps last wk, which reads as a hike perpetuating both #Deflation and #GrowthSlowing
SPX immediate-term risk range = 2040-2108; UST 10yr Yield 2.18-2.36%
Please call or e-mail with any questions.
Howard Penney
Managing Director
Shayne Laidlaw
Analyst