• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Monday Mashup - CHART 1

RECENT NOTES

11/18/15 CAG | SMOOTH MOVES

11/13/15 NUS | SHOW ME THE MONEY!

11/13/15 NUS | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION REPLAY

11/10/15 HAIN | THE COMPETITIVE ISSUES ARE JUST BEGINNING

11/05/15 BDBD | ADDING IT TO THE LONG BENCH

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Food and organic stocks that we follow underperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was up +2.6% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Amira Natural Foods (ANFI) and Smuckers (SJM) posting increases of +10.6% and +6.9%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were United Natural Foods (UNFI) and WhiteWave Foods (WWAV), which were down -5.9% and -4.5%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

XLP VERSUS THE MARKET

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is BEARISH in the TRADE duration, but BULLISH in the TREND duration.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

Food and Organic Companies

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

Monday Mashup - CHART 8

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

US stocks had their 3rd up day in the last 13 (Friday) and volume was -14% vs. it’s 1yr avg:

  1. USD – another #StrongDollar week in the bag (+0.6% USD Index to +10.3% YTD) after Draghi Devaluation sent the Euro -1.2% on the wk to -12% YTD – this is as deflationary a force as it was in the summer-time – FICC markets get that – Equities, not so much
  2. COMMODITIES – crash in Copper (-1.8% this am to $2.02) continues and Oil is down another -3%, testing $40 WTI (again) – hardly the green shoots a supply/demand bull is looking for, but I’m probably being too bearish looking at fact vs fiction
  3. UST 2YR – spike continues to 0.93% this morning as the Fed abandons the “data dependence” thing and goes with whatever the SP500 is doing instead – USD and short-term rates say DEC hike – so does the Yield Spread, compressing 9bps last wk, which reads as a hike perpetuating both #Deflation and #GrowthSlowing

SPX immediate-term risk range = 2040-2108; UST 10yr Yield 2.18-2.36%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst