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November 17, 2015

We've made some updates and enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges. You'll now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five of which will be determined by what's flashing on Keith's screen and by what names you're asking about. Contact support@hedgeye.com if you have any questions or feedback.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.36 2.17 2.27
SPX
S&P 500
2,020 2,073 2,053
RUT
Russell 2000
1,139 1,167 1,156
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,921 5,065 4,985
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,910 19,991 19,394
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,610 11,001 10,713
VIX
Volatility Index
16.59 20.25 18.16
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
97.99 100.08 99.54
EURUSD
Euro
1.05 1.07 1.08
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
121.53 123.99 123.19
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
39.79 43.55 42.04
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.23 2.40 2.33
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,070 1,101 1,082
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.08 2.20 2.12
AAPL
Apple Inc.
111 118 114
PCLN
Priceline.com Inc.
1,208 1,353 1,267
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
68.07 83.16 73.32
FB
Facebook, Inc.
102 110 104
W
Wayfair Inc.
33.01 39.29 37.28
URBN
Urban Outfitters, Inc.
19.99 24.19 22.67

 

 


The Macro Show Replay | November 17, 2015

 

 


CMG FLASH CALL INVITE | NEW BEST IDEA SHORT

new best SHORT idea: Chipotle (CMG)

watch THE REPLAY below

 

 

When we added CMG to the short list on 9/30/15, one of our primary concerns was focused on potential issues surrounding the supply chain and increased growth pressures coming from more expensive real estate and associated costs. The walls seem to be caving in on CMG, and on the call we will take you through what we see as the biggest issues.

 

We will be discussing three main points:

  1. Chipotle’s Whole Foods moment
  2. Growing pains / supply chain issues
  3. Valuation

CALL DETAILS

Toll Free:

Toll:

Confirmation Number: 13625259

Materials: To be released before the call

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 

 

 


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Cartoon of the Day: Paris

Cartoon of the Day: Paris - paris

 

"I’m on the Acela train to Boston this morning and, admittedly, having a hard time thinking about macro markets as the sun rises on the East Coast of Liberty’s Colossus.

 

The New Colossus is commonly known as the Statue of Liberty poem. It’s a sonnet that was written by Emma Lazarus in 1883.  Interestingly, the poem wasn’t placed on the pedestal of the statue until 1903. History often takes time to find her truths.

 

En francais, on appelle le statue La Liberte Eclairant Le Monde. And whether your mother’s tongue is French like mine’s is this morning or not… no matter what your politics, we should all stand together to defend all that is truth, liberty, and justice in this world this morning..." -Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in today's Early Look


SPECIAL EXCERPT: Digging Into The Gold Mining Disconnect | $GLD

 

 In this brief excerpt from last week's Materials sector launch call, Hedgeye analyst Jay Van Sciver responds to a subscriber's question about the disconnect between gold miner company production guidance and industry forecasts.  Email sales@hedgeye.com for more information on how you can subscribe to our new research sector.  


Déjà Vu In Japan: Has The Sun Set on Abenomics?

Takeaway: Japan just slipped into its fourth recession in five years. Abenomics is failing.

Déjà Vu In Japan: Has The Sun Set on Abenomics? - japan rising setting

 

The Bank of Japan has been purchasing 90 trillion yen worth of government bonds annually, which began in early 2013, in an effort stimulate economic growth. It's part of Abenomics, the concerted effort put forth by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to pull Japan out of it's decades long slump.

 

It is failing. 

 

This is something we've been concerned about for a while now. Take a look below at a brief excerpt from our 73-page Q3 Macro Themes presentation released in early October:

 

"... We do not think investors are appropriately positioned for a likely trend of negative revisions to the respective growth outlooks in the U.S., Eurozone and Japan throughout the balance of the year." 

 

We could pull up any number of recent headlines that suggest as much about global growth, but the latest news out of Japan is more than just an intimation. It's a direct confirmation of our #GameOfSlowing macro theme. 

 

Déjà Vu In Japan: Has The Sun Set on Abenomics? - Japan game of slowing

 

Here's Reuters:

 

"Japan slipped into its fourth technical recession in five years between July and September - spotlighting how the government's "Abenomics" policies have struggled to drag the economy out of chronic stagnation.

 

Official data on Monday showed the world's third-largest economy shrank an annual 0.8 percent in July-September after a 0.7 percent contraction in the prior quarter, putting it firmly into recession - two consecutive quarters of declines."

 

Interestingly, Japan's Economics Minister Akira Amari blamed the recent contraction on an overhang in inventories and (wouldn't you know it) sounded a positive tone on the country's recent jobs and income data.

 

This should sound familiar. 

 

New York Fed president Bill Dudley talked up the same playbook last Thursday:

  • "... the fundamentals supporting domestic demand look quite sturdy.  For example, consumer spending has been well-supported by real income gains and rising household net worth."
  • "It is also important that the forward momentum in the jobs market persists."
  • "A large decline in the pace of inventory accumulation was the main reason why real GDP growth faltered in the third quarter."

The parallels would be comical were it not so troubling. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough continues to write, "The Fed’s ‘forecast’ is wrong 70% of the time. They are the new market risk.” 

 

So too is Abenomics.

 

Déjà Vu In Japan: Has The Sun Set on Abenomics? - japan abe

 

But we digress...

 

The Nikkei index was down over 1% on the news that the economy had slid into recession. We'll have to wait and see how this changes the monetary calculus of the Bank of Japan at their rate review next week. 

 

The recent news is a confirmation of our initial take on Abenomics. So we'll reiterate:

 

Déjà Vu In Japan: Has The Sun Set on Abenomics? - abenomics


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