• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Monday Mashup - CHART 1

RECENT NOTES

11/13/15 NUS | SHOW ME THE MONEY!

11/13/15 NUS | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION REPLAY

11/10/15 HAIN | THE COMPETITIVE ISSUES ARE JUST BEGINNING

11/05/15 BDBD | ADDING IT TO THE LONG BENCH

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Food and organic stocks that we follow underperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was down -2.7% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Amira Natural Foods (ANFI) and Dean Foods (DF) posting increases of +34.8% and +5.8%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were Flowers Foods (FLO) and Hain Celestial (HAIN), which were down -9.1% and -6.9%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

XLP VERSUS THE MARKET

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is BEARISH on a TRADE and TREND duration.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

Food and Organic Companies

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

<CHART8>

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

Both US and European Equity Beta signaled immediate-term oversold into Friday’s close:

  1. EURO – down another -0.4% vs. USD at $1.07 this morning with the more important line of support being the YTD low of $1.05. While Dudley’s latest comments on “inflation continues to run well below the Fed’s target” are new/dovish this am, the FX market is obviously focused on the tragic events in France
  2. KOSPI – last week was ugly for everything Global Growth Expectations and KOSPI continued to break-down overnight down another -1%, taking it’s month-over-month decline from OCT’s counter TREND bounce to -4.3%
  3. COPPER – fresh new lows (again) this morning as Copper’s #Deflation Crash continues, -1.1% to $2.12/lb – the 6 month crash in Copper is -26% vs. WTI Oil’s at -35% - the Fed would have to back off the DEC hike to arrest the #Deflation

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr Yield 2.15-2.36%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst