Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup - CHART 1

 

RECENT NOTES

11/13/15 NUS | SHOW ME THE MONEY!

11/13/15 NUS | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION REPLAY

11/10/15 HAIN | THE COMPETITIVE ISSUES ARE JUST BEGINNING

11/05/15 BDBD | ADDING IT TO THE LONG BENCH

 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Food and organic stocks that we follow underperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was down -2.7% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Amira Natural Foods (ANFI) and Dean Foods (DF) posting increases of +34.8% and +5.8%, respectively. The worst performing companies on a relative basis on our list were Flowers Foods (FLO) and Hain Celestial (HAIN), which were down -9.1% and -6.9%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

 

XLP VERSUS THE MARKET

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

 

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is BEARISH on a TRADE and TREND duration.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

 

Food and Organic Companies

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

<CHART8>

 

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

Both US and European Equity Beta signaled immediate-term oversold into Friday’s close:

 

  1. EURO – down another -0.4% vs. USD at $1.07 this morning with the more important line of support being the YTD low of $1.05. While Dudley’s latest comments on “inflation continues to run well below the Fed’s target” are new/dovish this am, the FX market is obviously focused on the tragic events in France
  2. KOSPI – last week was ugly for everything Global Growth Expectations and KOSPI continued to break-down overnight down another -1%, taking it’s month-over-month decline from OCT’s counter TREND bounce to -4.3%
  3. COPPER – fresh new lows (again) this morning as Copper’s #Deflation Crash continues, -1.1% to $2.12/lb – the 6 month crash in Copper is -26% vs. WTI Oil’s at -35% - the Fed would have to back off the DEC hike to arrest the #Deflation

 

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr Yield 2.15-2.36%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 


Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more