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Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup - CHART 1

 

RECENT NOTES

11/12/2015 JACK | THE SHARKS ARE CIRCLING

11/05/2015 HABT | DEFYING GRAVITY

11/04/2015 DRI | ARE OLIVE GARDEN EXPECTATIONS TOO HIGH?

11/03/2015 BLMN | CAN YOU TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS

 

RECENT NEWS FLOW

Thursday, November 12

YUM | Yum! Brands China division reported October same-store sales growth of 5%, comparable to the divisions 6% growth in September. October results consist of 10% growth at KFC and a 9% decline at Pizza Hut.  China division same-store sales growth guidance for the fourth quarter was reiterated at 0% to 4%. (ARTICLE HERE)  

JMBA | Is becoming the latest company to launch a Mobile Order app, their app will be launching in mid-November in 600 stores across the United States (ARTICLE HERE)

DPZ | Opened its first store in Belarus, the sixth new market opened in 2015 (ARTICLE HERE)

 

Monday, November 9

DNKN | Dunkin’ Donuts franchisee signs agreement to build 25 restaurants in Mexico (ARTICLE HERE)

 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Casual Dining and Quick Service stocks that we follow had a mixed week last week, with casual dining companies outperforming the XLY, while quick service companies underperformed. The XLY was down -4.5%, top performers on a relative basis from casual dining were RT and TXRH posting increases of +6.0% and +4.9%, respectively, while PLKI and WEN led the quick service group this week up +4.0% and +3.2%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

 

XLY VERSUS THE MARKET

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

 

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLY looks BEARISH in the TRADE duration but BULLISH from a TREND perspective, TREND support is 77.55.

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

 

CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

Monday Mashup - CHART 8

 

QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 9

Monday Mashup - CHART 10

Monday Mashup - CHART 11

 

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

Both US and European Equity Beta signaled immediate-term oversold into Friday’s close:

 

  1. EURO – down another -0.4% vs. USD at $1.07 this morning with the more important line of support being the YTD low of $1.05. While Dudley’s latest comments on “inflation continues to run well below the Fed’s target” are new/dovish this am, the FX market is obviously focused on the tragic events in France
  2. KOSPI – last week was ugly for everything Global Growth Expectations and KOSPI continued to break-down overnight down another -1%, taking it’s month-over-month decline from OCT’s counter TREND bounce to -4.3%
  3. COPPER – fresh new lows (again) this morning as Copper’s #Deflation Crash continues, -1.1% to $2.12/lb – the 6 month crash in Copper is -26% vs. WTI Oil’s at -35% - the Fed would have to back off the DEC hike to arrest the #Deflation

 

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr Yield 2.15-2.36%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 


November 16, 2015

We've made some updates and enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges. You'll now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five of which will be determined by what's flashing on Keith's screen and by what names you're asking about. Contact support@hedgeye.com if you have any questions or feedback.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.36 2.15 2.28
SPX
S&P 500
1,998 2,053 2,023
RUT
Russell 2000
1,129 1,175 1,147
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,907 5,081 4,928
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,741 19,750 19,597
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,602 10,867 10,708
VIX
Volatility Index
16.85 21.66 20.08
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
97.43 100.15 99.10
EURUSD
Euro
1.06 1.08 1.08
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
121.43 123.99 122.62
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
39.96 44.05 40.73
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.23 2.45 2.38
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,074 1,115 1,083
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.12 2.23 2.16
AAPL
Apple Inc.
111 118 112
PCLN
Priceline.com Inc.
1,231 1,361 1,298
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
68.34 83.16 75.41
FB
Facebook, Inc.
102 110 104
DIS
Walt Disney Co.
110 117 114
KSS
Kohl's Corp.
41.22 44.96 42.85

 

 


The Macro Show Replay | November 16, 2015

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.64%

Final Reminder | Invite to Macrocosm: The Dock Debates

A final reminder that limited seats remain for our first institutional conference Macrocosm: The Dock Debates in Stamford, CT on Wednesday, November 18th from 12 - 7pm.  

 

Please contact sales at  for pricing and availability.

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough will moderate five panels with experts on various macro topics including Currency Wars, Consequences of QE, Europe, Demographics and Healthcare. Panelists include David Einhorn, Jim Rickards, Michael Aronstein, Daniel Lacalle and Jurrien Timmer among others. Click here for the full roster and bios. 

 

Importantly, there will be ample time allocated at the end of each debate for interactive audience Q&A.

 

Please note that this event is off the record (i.e. not open to any media) and seating is limited.

 

Final Reminder | Invite to Macrocosm: The Dock Debates - Macrocosm1


Pelosky: Our Worrisome ‘Tri Polar World’ and Its Global Implications

In this second installment of our recent interview with J2Z Founder and Principal Jay Pelosky, Pelosky lays out the implications of his Tri Polar World (TPW) theme. According to Pelosky, TPW simply means we are now in a world of 1) Insufficient demand; 2) Excess supply; 3) No inflation; and 4) Excess debt. It comes from his view that, “2008 was not only a financial crisis and crash, but it also meant the crash of all major global growth models at the same time.” He speaks with Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 16th of November through the 20th of November is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 11.13.15 Week Ahead


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