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Takeaway: Very bullish October commentary somewhat incongruent with slightly lower guidance

MGMT COMMENTS 

  • Hospitality Results (excludes AC Hotel at National Harbor, D.C.)
    • SS Revenue +1.5% YoY, Total +3.2% YoY
    • SS Adj EBITDA +7.8% YoY, Total +8.9% YoY
    • SS Adj EBITDA margin +1.8% (29.8% vs 28.0% in 2014)
    • Total Adj EBITDA margin +1.5% (28.2% vs. 26.7% in 2014)
    • OCC -2.1% YoY, ADR +1.1% YoY, RevPAR -1.8% YoY, Total RevPAR +1.5% (room rennovations at Gaylord Opryland and Gaylord Texan)
  • Gross Room nights booked +24.1% YoY, leads for group bookings are +10% YoY
  • Group Attrition -4.0% YoY, worse than they anticipated but they don't see systemic issues with the group segment as a result  
  • Cancellations actually second lowest in last 8 years. Q3 is seasonally the worst time for cancellations
  • Opryland - flat revenues, OCC -6.1% YoY, partially offset by strong banquet revenue 
  • Palms - Revenues -16.7% YoY, OCC slowed due to calendar shift
  • Texan - Revenues +12.1% YoY,  OCC +2.2%, ADR +6.8% YoY (could be adding more group space to this property) 
  • National - Revenues +7.0% YoY, strong banquet performance drove results 
  • FY 2015 Guidance - RevPAR guidance top end lowered due to a larger leisure component in November and December. Comps are very hard in November and December (RevPAR in mid to high teens for both months).
  • RHP 3Q CONFERENCE CALL NOTES  - rhp guidance
  • 2016 view of strong future has not changed. 100k more room nights currently booked vs. the same period a year earlier. (10% more YoY)
  • Exploring opportunity to expand more group space and also look into options to expand the transient side of their business. 
  • Transient rate increase have been positives and they are postioned well for the transient segment in 4Q
  • Albeit slower, economy still growing, they maintain their positive views based on their group demand. 
  • October has been the best october ever, generating $100M, October RevPAR +16% across the portfolio and 13% in total RevPAR
  • 85+% in consolidated OCC for October 
  • Cite markets concern with REIT's ability stay attractive amid possible rate rises. They are not concerned with their ability to boost their dividend, and very bullish on the properties they own.  

Q&A 

  • 100% of additional room nights booked are all corporate groups. Have good connection with their hotel managers (Marriott). 
  • Marriott aids their transient and group segment. 
  • Not seeing an influx of lower rated groups, most of their focus on higher rated groups
  • Nashville market transformation is incredible, leisure and group demand continues to be very strong. Would consider adding more rooms in the future, but most likley as a standalone property instead of adding on to Opryland.  
  • Attrition spike not concern: reasons were group specific issues, smaller groups that were likely first term groups who underestimated costs etc., and finally there was a large group that had to shorten their stay due calendar shift. 
  • They conducted deep dive analysis on the group attrition and found no parallels to 2008 trends
  • Very little energy related group exposure, less than 5% of group is energy related. Continue to very bullish on the Dallas property due to visibility into 2016
  • Groups set new records for spend levels, outside the room spending levels at record levels, but still a lot of room to run for other clients 
  • Pharma, Tech, Financials make up the bulk of their business  
  • Not seeing fewer rooms booked relatively to meeting space booked. Meeting Planners continue to ask for more meeting space.