In a note to subscribers this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough offers a brief update on the Russell 2000.
"The Russell 2000 failed at both TRADE (1175) and TREND (1199) resistance and remains in draw-down mode -10.5% from its year-to-date (and bubble) peak - one of the best pure play ways to play a #LateCycle slowdown in the USA is via Russell's domestic revenues."
TICKERS: MPEL, LVS, WYNN, AIRBNB, RCL
October 25-28: VRMA (Vacation Rental Manager's Association) Annual Conf - New Orleans
October 27: Macau Studio City opens
October 27 8:30AM: WYN 3Q CC - , PW: WYNDHAM
October 27 9:30AM: STAY 3Q CC - , PW: N/A
October 28 10:00AM: HLT 3Q CC - ; PW: 42576772
October 28 1:00PM: HOT 3Q CC - , PW: 44844364
October 28 5:00PM: DRII 3Q CC - 1- , PW: 56485276
October 29 8:00AM MGM 3Q CC -
October 29 9:00AM: HST 3Q CC - , PW: N/A
October 29 10:00AM: GLPI 3Q CC - , PW: N/A
October 29 10:00AM: MAR 3Q CC - , PW: 39462855
October 29 10:00AM: PNK 3Q CC - , PW: 68847879
MPEL - Not having junket rooms at Studio City’s casino was a “business decision” driven mainly by the size of the gaming property’s new-to-market table allocation from the Macau government, said a co-chairman of its main promoter Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd on the official opening day on Tuesday.
Ho added that once it became known that Studio City was to get a new-to-market allocation of 250 tables – 200 for use from when the casino opened on Tuesday afternoon and a further 50 from January – “it was a no brainer for us that it was going to be all mass [table gaming]. If it was 400 tables [in the allocation] maybe there would have been a very small portion for VIP [gambling]. But we are where we are.”
Takeaway: Why start with a business that will decline? All Mass tables increases the probabality of more Mass promotional activity
LVS - Two men have been arrested on suspicion of complicity in the stealing of $42,908-worth of gaming chips from the casino at the Marina Bay Sands resort in Singapore. The city-state’s Today newspaper reported that the suspects – aged 36 and 40 – were detained by officers from the Casino Crime Investigation Branch. The property was developed and is managed by Las Vegas Sands Corp.
WYNN - Macau junket operator Dore Entertainment Co Ltd is shutting down one of the three VIP rooms it promotes at casino hotel Wynn Macau. The news was confirmed to GGRAsia by Wynn Macau Ltd, which owns and manages the property. We can confirm that Dore will return one of their three junket rooms at Wynn Macau on October 31,” a company spokesperson told GGRAsia. “This is in accordance with Dore’s plan to scale down their business operations,” the spokesperson added in an emailed reply.
Takeaway: It had originally been reported that all of Dore's VIP rooms would be closed.
AIRBNB - Airbnb is testing a new service that will give people something to do in new cities. It’s called Journeys, and it’s currently available as invite-only to people who want to visit San Francisco in December, but haven’t yet booked their trips. Journeys offers full three-to-five-day travel plans to its selected testers. Through it, Airbnb will offer a free meal during each day; planned excursions devoted to San Francisco’s nightlife, natural wonders, or food scene; agent-selected rooms; and a Lyft ride from the airport to wherever the person is staying. These trips will reportedly cost between $500 and $750 for the individuals invited to use it.
Takeaway: More services, more competition from Airbnb
RCL - Australia has been chosen as the unusual world cruise departure port for Azamara Club Cruises' first-ever foray into a global voyage, which will end in London, U.K. In 2018 the 686-passenger Azamara Journey will sail a 102-day journey from Sydney's Opera House to London's Tower Bridge, docking overnight at the famous landmarks in signature Azamara style.
RCL - COO Adam Goldstein disclosed a sale of 90K shares. Goldstein beneficially owns 253K shares of common stock direct following the transaction.
Takeaway: That's a lot of stock but insider selling usually only means the stock has done well
PBoC - Cuts 7-day reverse repo rate by 10bos to 2.35%.
Smoking Ban - Members of the Legislative Assembly and representatives of the casino operators and the gaming trade unions will meet in the middle of next month to discuss the bill that would ban smoking in casinos, according to the chairman of the assembly committee handling the bill, Chan Chak Mo. Mr Chan told reporters that his committee had no firm stance on the ban.
Takeaway: Any further smoking ban not likely to go into effect until 2016
"I would love to be in the room watching someone who needs to consult these directions."
- Brian Regan
There are actual directions for how to eat a Pop-Tart.
Apparently we’ve devolved to the point that “remove pastry from pouch” needs to be an actual instruction.
And yes, it says microwave on high for 3 seconds … As in "three" seconds.
Back to the Global Macro Grind….
The Pop-Tart bit isn't mine but it's great (you can watch it HERE, it’s worth your 3 minutes).
In complexity, proper Pop-Tart preparation rivals what has been perhaps the most profitable macro strategy of the last half-decade.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one:
Rotate the QE (Euro/Yen ↓) => $USD ↑ => Reflation ↓ => Growth/Inflation Expectations ↓ => Bonds ↑
In other words,
When Draghi or Kurodo have the QE ball => Euro/Yen Go Down => the Dollar Goes Up => things priced in those dollars go down => Inflation expectations and OUS growth expectations flag => the market prices in those expectations and bonds get bid (again).
Yup, that’s it. Pop-Tart macro strategy alpha fully-baked in 3 seconds.
With global inflation expectations priced in dollars and central planning centricity defining markets in the post-crisis period, that QE-Currency connection has only played out “like infinity times” (my 5-year olds new favorite line) over the last 6 years.
Keith has provided some high level earnings season updates the last couple weeks. Let’s take a quick look below the flaky, frosted surface of earnings management to the thin layer of toasted growth at the center:
3Q Earnings Scorecard: With ~40% of SPX constituent companies having reported earnings for 3Q, the growth data remains dismal – particularly for a private sector economy purportedly still flirting with a multi-year march higher in policy rates.
- Sales/EPS: In the aggregate, Sales growth is running -3.08% while Earnings growth is tracking at -3.31%. Granted, the weakness is once again centered on the energy and the industrials complex but those sectors don’t operate in a vacuum and that softness has begun to creep in across the Financials, Staples & Tech sectors as well.
- Beat/Miss: Only 43% of companies have beaten topline estimates while 75% (in-line with recent qtr averages) have beaten on EPS. Indeed, despite 9-months of progressive deflation in consensus estimates, a full 0% (as in “zero”) of Materials and Utilities companies have managed to best sales expectations thus far in 3Q. Again, the weakness is not just confined to the energy/commodity space – across Consumer Discretionary, Staples and Financials less than 46% of companies have beaten revenue estimates. A topline recession with broad margin contraction is not a fundamental factor cocktail supportive of resurgent capex and gangbuster hiring.
- Missing’s Mattered: The Macro has been driving the fundamentals but accurately forecasting those fundamentals has mattered again as we’ve seen sector variance increase and stock picking has re-emerged as an alpha driver. 75% of companies that have missed earnings expectations have gone on to underperform the market by -6.7% on average while 70% of the companies that have beaten have outperformed the market by +3.7% over the subsequent 3 trading days.
- Operating Performance: Taking a 2nd derivative view of the data, operating momentum has remained decidedly underwhelming with just 43% and 45% of companies registering sequential acceleration in sales and earnings growth, respectively. More than 50% of companies have reported sequential contraction in operating margins as well. Our operating performance scorecard for 3Q to-date can be seen in the Chart of the Day below.
What about housing? You guys like the housing trade for 4Q but that New Home Sales print yesterday was a complete brick.
Yea it was. We like housing currently and we are more than willing to pivot on our view if the data supports it (recall, we were bearish in 3Q) - but the current data is noisy and incongruent. Here’s the summary contextualization, hopefully you’re well caffeinated:
TRID (Tila Respa Integrated Disclosure) – which was a regulatory change in mortgage disclosure requirements and required a large-scare overhaul of lending and mortgage financing systems – went into effect on October 3rd. Mortgage Purchase Applications which had been running +2.41% MoM and ~+20% YoY in September, shot up to +50% YoY to close out September as demand was pulled forward ahead of the implementation.
In other words, according to the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association), Mortgage Purchase Demand (which includes mortgages for both New and Existing Homes) was up big in September with the bulk of the increase stemming from the regulatory distortion.
In contrast, the Census Bureau data for the same period showed New Home Sales declining -11.5% MoM and decelerating to +2% YoY - marking the lowest level of sales in 10 months and well off the +20% year-over-year pace of growth averaged YTD.
Two data sets, two completely different conclusions on the sequential direction of housing demand. They can’t both be correct.
The lone avenue for reconciling the difference is if all of that excess purchase demand reported by the MBA was concentrated in the existing market. That seems unlikely.
But we won’t have to wait long for additional clarity as Pending Home Sales (which represents signed contract activity in the existing market) for September will be released on Thursday. We’re content to wait on that before taking a more convicted view on the state of underlying demand or the distortive effects of TRID implementation.
The evolution of social media and the democratization of information flow has been great. A byproduct of that evolution, however, has been an exponential increase in noise – the informational/analytical equivalent of empty calories.
Filter you’re source menu by accountability, transparency and analytical density.
Better yet, be your own source.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr Yield 1.98-2.09%
Oil (WTI) 43.28-46.13
You don’t get the brain you want by not using the one you have,
Christian B. Drake
U.S. Macro Analyst
Editor's Note: Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here if you'd like to learn how to subscribe and get a step ahead of consensus.
"...With ~40% of SPX constituent companies having reported earnings for 3Q, the growth data remains dismal – particularly for a private sector economy purportedly still flirting with a multi-year march higher in policy rates.
...Taking a 2nd derivative view of the data, operating momentum has remained decidedly underwhelming with just 43% and 45% of companies registering sequential acceleration in sales and earnings growth, respectively. More than 50% of companies have reported sequential contraction in operating margins as well. Our operating performance scorecard for 3Q to-date can be seen in the Chart of the Day below."
Client Talking Points
WTIC is down another -0.8% (post last week's -6.3% decline) and they're really going after the levered names again (our Energy analyst Kevin Kaiser had another good SELL note on KMI recently). Russian Stocks lead losers this morning down -1.9% and Natural Gas is crashing down another -3% to $2.00.
Spain had their centrally-planned V-bottom, but failed @Hedgeye TAIL risk resistance of 10692 on the IBEX. The IBEX is down -0.6% this morning as Spain still needs to report their economic slowing data, unfortunately - QE hope won't change that.
The Russell 2000 failed at both TRADE (1175) and TREND (1199) resistance and remains in draw-down mode -10.5% from its year-to-date (and bubble) peak - one of the best pure play ways to play a #LateCycle slowdown in the USA is via Russell's domestic revenues.
**Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE.
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Top Long Ideas
What week it was for MCD shareholders! Shares finished the week up 7.3%. We have been saying all along that the third quarter of 2015 would be the inflection point for the McDonald’s (MCD) turnaround. After this print, it appears that the heartache is finally over at McDonald’s, as this quarter marks the first good quarter the company has had in two years.
From here, the upside in the stock price lies with the growth of All Day Breakfast, additional G&A cuts, national value offering implementation, reimaging of restaurants, commodity deflation, especially in beef and increased operational efficiencies, among others. In addition, the REIT is a potential driver of incremental value but not crucial to the long-term success of this call. With Steve Easterbrook at the helm we are confident this company will be better managed than it has been in a long time.
RH unveiled a full floor of Modern product in their New York Flatiron store this week. The new concept sits on the first floor of the 21k sq. ft. store and marks the 3rd property in RH’s fleet (along with Denver and Atlanta) to carry the new product line.
Fundamentally and financially, we’re about to see growth at RH go on a multi-year tear. We think this stock is headed to $300 over the next 2-3 years. We’ve been patient for the catalyst calendar to begin, and the waiting is finally over.
As devaluation and global currency war jockeying from central bankers around the world continues, the acknowledgement of growth slowing continues to push yields lower. The long-bond was up on Thursday, after the ECB meeting, despite an easing-fueled rip in equities. The bond market doesn’t believe in the growth storytelling and we expect it to continue.
Remember that Down Euro Devaluation is a global TIGHTENING event because the world’s biggest asset price #deflation risk is that the world’s inflation expectations (commodities, debt, etc.) are DENOMINATED IN DOLLARS. That has implications for gold (risk to being long), but we want to get through the Fed meeting and GDP data next week before we pivot on a gold view. Stay tuned.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
UPDATE: Hedgeye Energy Analyst Kevin Kaiser Reiterates His Short Case on Kinder Morgan | $KMI https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/47127-update-hedgeye-energy-analyst-kevin-kaiser-reiterates-his-short-case… via @hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Failures to heroic minds are the stepping stones to success.
Thomas Chandler Haliburton
STAT OF THE DAY
A biscuit which had been aboard a lifeboat on the Titanic has sold at auction for £15,000. The auction was at Henry Aldridge & Son in Devizes, Wiltshire, UK.
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