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FINANCIALS SENTIMENT SCOREBOARD - JPMorgan (JPM) AND FEDERATED INVESTORS (FII)

Takeaway: We are flagging JPMorgan (JPM - Score: 95) (short) and Federated Investors (FII - Score: 14) (long) on sentiment and short interest.

This morning we are publishing our updated Hedgeye Financials Sentiment Scoreboard in conjunction with the release of the latest short interest data last night. Our Scoreboard now evaluates over 300 companies across the Financials complex.

 

The Scoreboard combines buyside and sell-side sentiment measures. It standardizes those measures to an index of 0-100, where 100 is the best possible sentiment ranking and 0 is the worst. Our analysis shows that a contrarian strategy can be employed successfully by taking the other side of stocks with extreme readings in sentiment, either bullish or bearish. Once sentiment reaches these extreme levels, it becomes a very asymmetric setup wherein expectations become too high or too low.  

 

We’ve quantified the tipping points for high and low sentiment. Specifically, we've found that scores of 20 or lower have a positive, average expected return while scores of 90 or greater are more likely to underperform.

 

Specifically, our backtest of 10,400 observations over a 10-year period found that stocks with scores of 0-10 went on to produce an average absolute return of +23.9% over the following 12-month period. Scores of 10-20 produced an average absolute return of +11.9%. At the other end of the spectrum, stocks with sentiment scores of 90-100 produced average negative absolute returns of -10.3% over the following 12-months.

 

The first table below breaks the 300 companies into a few major categories and ranks all the components on a relative basis. The second table breaks the group into smaller subsectors and again gives them relative rankings within those subsectors. 

 

FINANCIALS SENTIMENT SCOREBOARD - JPMorgan (JPM) AND FEDERATED INVESTORS (FII) - SI1

 

FINANCIALS SENTIMENT SCOREBOARD - JPMorgan (JPM) AND FEDERATED INVESTORS (FII) - SI2

 

FINANCIALS SENTIMENT SCOREBOARD - JPMorgan (JPM) AND FEDERATED INVESTORS (FII) - SI3 2

 

The following is an excerpt from our 90 page black book entitled “Betting Against the Herd: Generating Alpha From Sentiment Extremes Across Financials.”

 

Let us know if you would like to receive a copy of our black book, which explains this system and its applications.

 

BUYS / LONGS: Financials with extremely low sentiment readings of 20 and below on our index (0-100) show strong average outperformance in absolute and relative terms across 3, 6 and 12 month subsequent durations.  Stocks with sentiment ratings of 20 or lower rise an average of +15.1% over the next 12 months in absolute terms.   

 

SELLS / SHORTS: Financials with extremely high sentiment readings of 90 and above on our proprietary sentiment index (0-100) demonstrate a marked tendency to underperform in absolute and relative terms across 3, 6 and 12 month subsequent durations.  Stocks with sentiment ratings of 90 or greater fall in value an average of -10.3% over the next 12 months in absolute terms. 

 

 

FINANCIALS SENTIMENT SCOREBOARD - JPMorgan (JPM) AND FEDERATED INVESTORS (FII) - Absolute 12 mo

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT


RTA Live: October 27, 2015

 

 
 


Note to the Bullish Cabal: Small Caps Are In Correction Territory | $IWM

Note to the Bullish Cabal: Small Caps Are In Correction Territory | $IWM - Small cap canaries 09.23.2014

 

In a note to subscribers this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough offers a brief update on the Russell 2000.  

 

"The Russell 2000 failed at both TRADE (1175) and TREND (1199) resistance and remains in draw-down mode -10.5% from its year-to-date (and bubble) peak - one of the best pure play ways to play a #LateCycle slowdown in the USA is via Russell's domestic revenues." 

 

Note to the Bullish Cabal: Small Caps Are In Correction Territory | $IWM - 10 27 2015 russell


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LEISURE LETTER (10/27/2015) - MPEL, LVS, WYNN, AIRBNB, RCL

TICKERS: MPEL, LVS, WYNN, AIRBNB, RCL 

EVENTS

October 25-28: VRMA (Vacation Rental Manager's Association) Annual Conf -  New Orleans

October 27: Macau Studio City opens

October 27 8:30AM: WYN 3Q CC - , PW: WYNDHAM

October 27 9:30AM: STAY 3Q CC - , PW: N/A

October 28 10:00AM: HLT 3Q CC - ; PW: 42576772

October 28 1:00PM: HOT 3Q CC - , PW: 44844364

October 28 5:00PM: DRII 3Q CC - 1- , PW:  56485276

October 29 8:00AM MGM 3Q CC -

October 29 9:00AM: HST 3Q CC - , PW: N/A

October 29 10:00AM: GLPI 3Q CC - , PW: N/A

October 29 10:00AM: MAR 3Q CC - , PW: 39462855

October 29 10:00AM: PNK 3Q CC - , PW: 68847879

COMPANY NEWS   

MPEL - Not having junket rooms at Studio City’s casino was a “business decision” driven mainly by the size of the gaming property’s new-to-market table allocation from the Macau government, said a co-chairman of its main promoter Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd on the official opening day on Tuesday. 

 

Ho added that once it became known that Studio City was to get a new-to-market allocation of 250 tables – 200 for use from when the casino opened on Tuesday afternoon and a further 50 from January – “it was a no brainer for us that it was going to be all mass [table gaming]. If it was 400 tables [in the allocation] maybe there would have been a very small portion for VIP [gambling]. But we are where we are.”

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Why start with a business that will decline? All Mass tables increases the probabality of more Mass promotional activity

 

LVS - Two men have been arrested on suspicion of complicity in the stealing of $42,908-worth of gaming chips from the casino at the Marina Bay Sands resort in Singapore.  The city-state’s Today newspaper reported that the suspects – aged 36 and 40 – were detained by officers from the Casino Crime Investigation Branch. The property was developed and is managed by Las Vegas Sands Corp.

ARTICLE HERE

 

WYNN - Macau junket operator Dore Entertainment Co Ltd is shutting down one of the three VIP rooms it promotes at casino hotel Wynn Macau. The news was confirmed to GGRAsia by Wynn Macau Ltd, which owns and manages the property. We can confirm that Dore will return one of their three junket rooms at Wynn Macau on October 31,” a company spokesperson told GGRAsia. “This is in accordance with Dore’s plan to scale down their business operations,” the spokesperson added in an emailed reply.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: It had originally been reported that all of Dore's VIP rooms would be closed. 

 

AIRBNB - Airbnb is testing a new service that will give people something to do in new cities. It’s called Journeys, and it’s currently available as invite-only to people who want to visit San Francisco in December, but haven’t yet booked their trips.  Journeys offers full three-to-five-day travel plans to its selected testers. Through it, Airbnb will offer a free meal during each day; planned excursions devoted to San Francisco’s nightlife, natural wonders, or food scene; agent-selected rooms; and a Lyft ride from the airport to wherever the person is staying. These trips will reportedly cost between $500 and $750 for the individuals invited to use it.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: More services, more competition from Airbnb

 

RCL - Australia has been chosen as the unusual world cruise departure port for Azamara Club Cruises' first-ever foray into a global voyage, which will end in London, U.K. In 2018 the 686-passenger Azamara Journey will sail a 102-day journey from Sydney's Opera House to London's Tower Bridge, docking overnight at the famous landmarks in signature Azamara style.

ARTICLE HERE

 

RCL - COO Adam Goldstein disclosed a sale of 90K shares.  Goldstein beneficially owns 253K shares of common stock direct following the transaction. 

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: That's a lot of stock but insider selling usually only means the stock has done well

INDUSTRY NEWS

PBoC - Cuts 7-day reverse repo rate by 10bos to 2.35%. 

 

Smoking Ban - Members of the Legislative Assembly and representatives of the casino operators and the gaming trade unions will meet in the middle of next month to discuss the bill that would ban smoking in casinos, according to the chairman of the assembly committee handling the bill, Chan Chak Mo.  Mr Chan told reporters that his committee had no firm stance on the ban.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Any further smoking ban not likely to go into effect until 2016

 


Pop-Tart Strategy

"I would love to be in the room watching someone who needs to consult these directions."

 - Brian Regan

 

There are actual directions for how to eat a Pop-Tart. 

 

Apparently we’ve devolved to the point  that “remove pastry from pouch” needs to be an actual instruction. 

 

And yes, it says microwave on high for 3 seconds  … As in "three" seconds. 

 

Pop-Tart Strategy - 10 27 EL

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind….

 

The Pop-Tart bit isn't mine but it's great (you can watch it HERE, it’s worth your 3 minutes). 

 

In complexity, proper Pop-Tart preparation rivals what has been perhaps the most profitable macro strategy of the last half-decade.

 

Stop me if you’ve heard this one:   

 

Rotate the QE (Euro/Yen => $USD  => Reflation  => Growth/Inflation Expectations  => Bonds 

 

In other words,

 

When Draghi or Kurodo have the QE ball => Euro/Yen Go Down => the Dollar Goes Up => things priced in those dollars go down => Inflation expectations and OUS growth expectations flag => the market prices in those expectations and bonds get bid (again).

 

Yup, that’s it. Pop-Tart macro strategy alpha fully-baked in 3 seconds.   

 

With global inflation expectations priced in dollars and central planning centricity defining markets in the post-crisis period, that QE-Currency connection has only played out “like infinity times” (my 5-year olds new favorite line) over the last 6 years. 

 

Moving on.

 

Keith has provided some high level earnings season updates the last couple weeks.  Let’s take a quick look below the flaky, frosted surface of earnings management to the thin layer of toasted growth at the center:

 

3Q Earnings Scorecard: With ~40% of SPX constituent companies having reported earnings for 3Q, the growth data remains dismal – particularly for a private sector economy purportedly still flirting with a multi-year march higher in policy rates.     

  • Sales/EPS:  In the aggregate, Sales growth is running -3.08% while Earnings growth is tracking at -3.31%.  Granted, the weakness is once again centered on the energy and the industrials complex but those sectors don’t operate in a vacuum and that softness has begun to creep in across the Financials, Staples & Tech sectors as well.
  • Beat/Miss:  Only 43% of companies have beaten topline estimates while 75% (in-line with recent qtr averages) have beaten on EPS.  Indeed, despite 9-months of progressive deflation in consensus estimates, a full 0% (as in “zero”) of Materials and Utilities companies have managed to best sales expectations thus far in 3Q.  Again, the weakness is not just confined to the energy/commodity space – across Consumer Discretionary, Staples and Financials less than 46% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.  A topline recession with broad margin contraction is not a fundamental factor cocktail supportive of resurgent capex and gangbuster hiring. 
  • Missing’s Mattered: The Macro has been driving the fundamentals but accurately forecasting those fundamentals has mattered again as we’ve seen sector variance increase and stock picking has re-emerged as an alpha driver. 75% of companies that have missed earnings expectations have gone on to underperform the market by -6.7% on average while 70% of the companies that have beaten have outperformed the market by +3.7% over the subsequent 3 trading days. 
  • Operating Performance:  Taking a 2nd derivative view of the data, operating momentum has remained decidedly underwhelming with just 43% and 45% of companies registering sequential acceleration in sales and earnings growth, respectively. More than 50% of companies have reported sequential contraction in operating margins as well.  Our operating performance scorecard for 3Q to-date can be seen in the Chart of the Day below. 

  

What about housing?  You guys like the housing trade for 4Q but that New Home Sales print yesterday was a complete brick.

 

Yea it was. We like housing currently and we are more than willing to pivot on our view if the data supports it (recall, we were bearish in 3Q) - but the current data is noisy and incongruent.  Here’s the summary contextualization,  hopefully you’re well caffeinated: 

 

TRID (Tila Respa Integrated Disclosure) – which was a regulatory change in mortgage disclosure requirements and required a large-scare overhaul of lending and mortgage financing systems – went into effect on October 3rd.  Mortgage Purchase Applications which had been running +2.41% MoM and ~+20% YoY in September, shot up to +50% YoY to close out September as demand was pulled forward ahead of the implementation.  

 

In other words, according to the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association), Mortgage Purchase Demand (which includes mortgages for both New and Existing Homes) was up big in September with the bulk of the increase stemming from the regulatory distortion.

 

In contrast, the Census Bureau data for the same period showed New Home Sales declining -11.5% MoM and decelerating to +2% YoY - marking the lowest level of sales in 10 months and well off the +20% year-over-year pace of growth averaged YTD.  

 

Two data sets, two completely different conclusions on the sequential direction of housing demand.  They can’t both be correct.  

 

The lone avenue for reconciling the difference is if all of that excess purchase demand reported by the MBA was concentrated in the existing market.  That seems unlikely.

 

But we won’t have to wait long for additional clarity as Pending Home Sales (which represents signed contract activity in the existing market) for September will be released on Thursday.  We’re content to wait on that before taking a more convicted view on the state of underlying demand or the distortive effects of TRID implementation. 

 

The evolution of social media and the democratization of information flow has been great.  A byproduct of that evolution, however, has been an exponential increase in noise – the informational/analytical equivalent of empty calories. 

 

Filter you’re source menu by accountability, transparency and analytical density.

 

Better yet, be your own source.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

SPX 1
RUT 1135--1175

UST 10yr Yield 1.98-2.09%

VIX 13.56-19.77 

Oil (WTI) 43.28-46.13 

Gold 1151-1175 

 

You don’t get the brain you want by not using the one you have,

 

Christian B. Drake

U.S. Macro Analyst

 

Pop-Tart Strategy - EL 10 27


CHART OF THE DAY: 3Q15 Earnings Scorecard --> Dismal

Editor's Note: Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here if you'd like to learn how to subscribe and get a step ahead of consensus.

 

"...With ~40% of SPX constituent companies having reported earnings for 3Q, the growth data remains dismal – particularly for a private sector economy purportedly still flirting with a multi-year march higher in policy rates.     

 

...Taking a 2nd derivative view of the data, operating momentum has remained decidedly underwhelming with just 43% and 45% of companies registering sequential acceleration in sales and earnings growth, respectively. More than 50% of companies have reported sequential contraction in operating margins as well.  Our operating performance scorecard for 3Q to-date can be seen in the Chart of the Day below." 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: 3Q15 Earnings Scorecard --> Dismal - EL 10 27


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