10/23/2015 DNKN | THE DONUT TRACKER
10/22/2015 MCD | THE ROAD TO $150
10/21/2015 CMG | THE NEW WORLD ORDER
10/21/2015 YUM | SO MANY LEVERS TO PULL
10/20/2015 SONC | NOT INSPIRING BUT COVERING
10/20/2015 MCD | TURNING THE CORNER
10/19/2015 CMG | MOVING IT TO THE SHORT BENCH
RECENT NEWS FLOW
Friday, October 23
DAVE | Welcomes back founder, Famous Dave Anderson as part of a reorganization of the C-suite and Board. Anderson previously left the company in 2004 following an appointment by George W. Bush to serve as Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior, Indian Affairs (ARTICLE HERE)
CBRL | Cracker Barrel holder Biglari Capital filed amended 13D; issues presentation arguing against company’s need for poison pill. Biglari reports a 19.7% stake in the filing (FILING HERE)
MCD | Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray, target increased to $130 from $95. View our road to $150 in the link above.
Wednesday, October 21
DRI | Announced that its Board has approved the tax-free spin-off of select real estate assets into Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT). Shares are expected to be distributed to Darden shareholders on November 9, 2015 (ARTICLE HERE)
DPZ | Launches purpose-built pizza delivery vehicle (ARTICLE HERE)
Casual Dining and Quick Service stocks that we follow widely underperformed the XLY last week. The XLY was up +1.7%, top performers on a relative basis from casual dining were BJRI and BBRG posting an increase of +10% and +0.4%, respectively, while ARCO and GMCR led the quick service group this week up +15.1% and +6.6%, respectively.
XLY VERSUS THE MARKET
The XLY has fared better than most other sectors in the YTD time period but as of late has been lagging slightly. In the last five trading days the SPX was up +2.1% and the XLY was up just +1.7%.
From a quantitative perspective, the XLY looks BULLISH from a TRADE and TREND perspective, TREND support is 76.57.
CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS
QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS
Keith’s Three Morning Bullets
If only Europe and China could ease every night before AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT beat …
- EM – Emerging Markets didn’t like the Euro Devaluation last week, w/ EM MSCI Index closing -0.8% on the wk – reminder that there’s a $9T USD denominated debt #bubble that deflates on these tightening events (see our Q4 Macro Themes deck) – yes, Draghi ramping USD is deflationary – ask Oil -6.3% last week, or Energy Stocks (XLE -1.4%)
- EURO – oversold to the low-end of my $1.10-1.13 immediate-term risk range vs USD into week’s end. European Equities had their Viagra move (+6.8% week for the DAX, crushing all US indices with the Russell only +0.3%) and are showing no follow through this morning as Spain’s PPI deflates (again) to -3.6% y/y vs -2.2% last print
- 10YR – German 10yr = 0.51% and UST 10yr pulls right back to 2.07% this morning as the world wakes up to more deflation and #GrowthSlowing news – don’t forget that we get US GDP for Q3 this week and most of the sell side is still in la la land there
SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr Yield 1.98-2.09%
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