Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup - CHART 1

RECENT NOTES

10/23/2015 DNKN | THE DONUT TRACKER

10/22/2015 MCD | THE ROAD TO $150

10/21/2015 CMG | THE NEW WORLD ORDER

10/21/2015 YUM | SO MANY LEVERS TO PULL

10/20/2015 SONC | NOT INSPIRING BUT COVERING

10/20/2015 MCD | TURNING THE CORNER

10/19/2015 CMG | MOVING IT TO THE SHORT BENCH

UPCOMING EVENTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 12

RECENT NEWS FLOW

Friday, October 23

DAVE | Welcomes back founder, Famous Dave Anderson as part of a reorganization of the C-suite and Board. Anderson previously left the company in 2004 following an appointment by George W. Bush to serve as Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior, Indian Affairs (ARTICLE HERE)

CBRL | Cracker Barrel holder Biglari Capital filed amended 13D; issues presentation arguing against company’s need for poison pill. Biglari reports a 19.7% stake in the filing (FILING HERE)

MCD | Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray, target increased to $130 from $95. View our road to $150 in the link above.

 

Wednesday, October 21

DRI | Announced that its Board has approved the tax-free spin-off of select real estate assets into Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT). Shares are expected to be distributed to Darden shareholders on November 9, 2015 (ARTICLE HERE)

DPZ | Launches purpose-built pizza delivery vehicle (ARTICLE HERE)

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Casual Dining and Quick Service stocks that we follow widely underperformed the XLY last week. The XLY was up +1.7%, top performers on a relative basis from casual dining were BJRI and BBRG posting an increase of +10% and +0.4%, respectively, while ARCO and GMCR led the quick service group this week up +15.1% and +6.6%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

XLY VERSUS THE MARKET

The XLY has fared better than most other sectors in the YTD time period but as of late has been lagging slightly. In the last five trading days the SPX was up +2.1% and the XLY was up just +1.7%.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLY looks BULLISH from a TRADE and TREND perspective, TREND support is 76.57.

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

Monday Mashup - CHART 8

QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 9

Monday Mashup - CHART 10

Monday Mashup - CHART 11

 

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

If only Europe and China could ease every night before AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT beat …

  1. EM – Emerging Markets didn’t like the Euro Devaluation last week, w/ EM MSCI Index closing -0.8% on the wk – reminder that there’s a $9T USD denominated debt #bubble that deflates on these tightening events (see our Q4 Macro Themes deck) – yes, Draghi ramping USD is deflationary – ask Oil -6.3% last week, or Energy Stocks (XLE -1.4%)
  2. EURO – oversold to the low-end of my $1.10-1.13 immediate-term risk range vs USD into week’s end. European Equities had their Viagra move (+6.8% week for the DAX, crushing all US indices with the Russell only +0.3%) and are showing no follow through this morning as Spain’s PPI deflates (again) to -3.6% y/y vs -2.2% last print
  3. 10YR – German 10yr = 0.51% and UST 10yr pulls right back to 2.07% this morning as the world wakes up to more deflation and #GrowthSlowing news – don’t forget that we get US GDP for Q3 this week and most of the sell side is still in la la land there

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr Yield 1.98-2.09%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst