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Monday Mashup - CHART 1

RECENT NOTES

10/16/15 PEP | EXPANDING INTO SNACKS AND BREAKFAST?

10/16/15 REPLAY | THOUGHT LEADER CALL | LOOMING CRASH IN BEEF

10/01/15 CAG | IN THE BEGINNING

9/28/15 CAG | GOING LONG

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Food and organic stocks that we follow were in-line with the XLP last week. The XLP was up +0.3% last week, the top performers on a relative basis from our list were Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) and Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) posting increases of +3.9% and +3.7%, respectively. The worst performing company on a relative basis on our list was Lifeway (LWAY), which was down -6.3%.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

XLP VERSUS THE MARKET

The XLP has fared better than most other sectors in the YTD time period but struggled last week versus the market. In the last five trading days, while the SPX was up +0.9%, the XLP was up just +0.3%.

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is BULLISH on a TRADE and TREND duration.

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

Food and Organic Companies

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

So far, no good = 58/500 S&P names have reported = Revs -2.7%, EPS -7.9% - bull market, in storytelling (and Long-Term Bonds):

  1. USD – down for the 3rd straight week (post that terrible US jobs report) gave the SPX short squeeze what it needed (up, on decelerating volume, to lower-highs) but USD appears to be stabilizing this morning = Oil (-1.1%), Gold (-0.4%), and the “reflation” trade no likey
  2. NIKKEI – Japanese stocks no likey Down Dollar = Up Yen either; after closing -0.8% last week, Japan didn’t believe the China “news” and sold off -0.9% into the close, taking Nikkei -12% in the last 3 months (with USD -3.2% in the last 3 months)
  3. CHINA – look on the bright side of their storytelling, they didn’t stick a 7.0 this time and made-up “6.9%” GDP instead. Lol. Even the locals (who are paid to think a certain way) didn’t buy Chinese stocks on that – Shanghai Comp closes -0.14%

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr 1.98-2.07%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst