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The Macro Show Replay | October 19, 2015

 


October 19, 2015

October 19, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

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USD, Nikkei and China

Client Talking Points

USD

The USD was down for the 3rd straight week (post that terrible U.S. jobs report) giving the SPX short squeeze what it needed (up, on decelerating volume, to lower-highs) but the USD appears to be stabilizing this morning = Oil (-1.1%), Gold (-0.4%), and the “reflation” trade no likey.

NIKKEi

Japanese stocks no likey either…Down Dollar = Up Yen. After closing -0.8% last week, Japan didn’t believe the China “news” and sold off -0.9% into the close, taking the Nikkei -12% in the last 3 months (with USD -3.2% in the last 3 months).

CHINA

Look on the bright side of their storytelling, they didn’t stick a 7.0 this time and made-up “6.9%” GDP instead. LOL. Even the locals (who are paid to think a certain way) didn’t buy Chinese stocks on that – Shanghai Composite closes -0.14%.

 

**Tune into The Macro Show at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 63% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 6%
FIXED INCOME 31% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

McDonald’s reports 3Q15 earnings Thursday, October 22nd before the market opens, with a conference call at 11:00am ET. We are expecting strong sequential improvement in performance globally. We look forward to giving you an update on the company’s performance next week, but this week we wanted to focus on the ‘Looming Crash in Beef.'

RH

Restoration Hardware opened its new Full Line Design Gallery at the Cherry Creek Shopping Center in Denver this week.  This is another anchor property -- using 53,000 feet of the 90,000 left vacant by Saks at Cherry Creek.

 

RH is taking up the size of its stores from an average of 8,000 square feet to about 40,000+ for its new stores – and productivity rates on these new assets are headed higher. In the old stores, RH could only show 10% of its assortment, while in the newer format stores, the company is showcasing better than 75%. Consumers can’t (and don’t) buy what they don’t see.

TLT

The #SlowerForLonger theme from Hedgeye Macro has been consistent and straightforward. Our pivot in advance of the most recent jobs report to get long of gold and stay out of the way short-side on commodities turned out to be a good position.

 

Growth expectations have been correctly revised, but there’s still a good amount of room between Hedgeye estimates and consensus. We are expecting GDP in a range of 0.1%-1.5% for Q3 and another 1-handle in Q4. If that proves accurate, flatter goes the Treasury curve (TLT, EDV), wider goes high yield spreads (bad for JNK), and down goes the USD (GLD).

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

*NEW*

The Big Fear: Jay Pelosky on the Key Market Risks Right Now https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/46957-the-big-fear-jay-pelosky-on-the-key-market-risks-right-now… via @jaypelosky @HedgeyeDJ

#markets #Fed

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Life is something like a trumpet. If you don't put anything in you don't get anything out.

W. C. Handy

STAT OF THE DAY

A record 20 hurricanes or typhoons have reached Category 4 or 5 strength in the Northern Hemisphere this year. The record was broken on Saturday when Koppu became the nineteenth storm to reach this intensity prior to slamming into the Philippines as a super typhoon.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

INVITE | SELL SPAIN CONFERENCE CALL (10/21/15 at 11AM ET)

Special contributor Daniel Lacalle will join Hedgeye’s European analyst Matt Hedrick and DOR Daryl Jones on Wednesday, October 21st at 11:00am ET to discuss Spain’s economy and market outlook.

 

Lacalle is a renowned European economist, who previously worked at PIMCO and was a PM at Ecofin Global Oil & Gas Fund and Citadel.  He is the author of Life In The Financial Markets and The Energy World Is Flat and a lecturer for the IE Business School and Master MEMFI at UNED University.

 

INVITE | SELL SPAIN CONFERENCE CALL (10/21/15 at 11AM ET) - Spain pain

 

KEY TOPICS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE 

  • Is the IBEX in crash mode?
  • What are the key economic metrics telling us about the direction of Spain’s health?
  • Will Spain make the necessary fiscal reforms or revert back to its ‘old’ ways?
  • Who wins the general election on December 20th and what’s the impact on the sovereign?
  • What are the challenges for the Eurozone with habitual weak economic links like Spain?

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free:
  • Toll:
  • Confirmation Number: 13622670
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

Ping for more information.


The Big Fear: Jay Pelosky on the Key Market Risks Right Now

 

Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones recently welcomed J2Z Founder and Principal Jay Pelosky for another installment of Real Conversations. In this revealing excerpt from their interview, Pelosky expands on his thoughts from a recent piece he wrote entitled "The Big Fear."


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 19th of October through the 23rd of October is full of critical releases and events.  Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead  - 10.16.15 Week Ahead


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