LEISURE LETTER (10/14/2015) - STATION, AIRBNB, CCL, UBER

TICKERS: STATION, AIRBNB, CCL, UBER 

events

October 15: VAC 3Q CC ; PW: 13620306

October 15: WYNN 3Q CC , PW: 55746426 

COMPANY NEWS 

Station Casinos - Station, which has been privately held since 2008, announced plans Tuesday for an initial public offering that will return the company to the stock market. 

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: As evidenced by our long BYD call, we like the LV locals gaming market exposure. We'll have more to say on this name.


AIRBNB - Jersey City could soon have something New York does not. On Monday, Mayor Steven M. Fulop will introduce legislation to legalize the use of all short-term sleepover web services, like Airbnb and HomeAway. The law is expected to be approved by November.  In exchange for agreeing to let some of Jersey City’s 262,000 residents rent out a couch, a bedroom or even their entire apartment or house on Airbnb, the company would charge users the same 6% hospitality tax currently levied on guests at the city’s dozen hotels.  

ARTICLE HERE

 

CCL - As cruise lines continue to jump into the growing Chinese cruise market, Carnival Cruise Line and AIDA -- both owned by Carnival Corporation -- announced that they will have ships in the country by 2017.  The move by Carnival Corp. means that four of the company's 10 brands will have a foothold in China. Costa Cruises has been offering voyages in China since 2006, while Princess Cruises has been in China since 2014. In 2015, Carnival expects over 500,000 passengers in China, up from about 350,000 in 2014 -- a 43% increase YoY.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: 2017 is shaping up to be a true test for the Chinese cruise market. 

 

Star Cruises - Star Cruises could be upping its deployment to Vietnam nearly four times in 2016, according to a report in The Saigon Times Online.  With 50 scheduled port calls in 2015, Star may be targeting upwards of 200 in 2016 with the SuperStar Libra and SuperStar Virgo, according to the report, sailing from Hong Kong and mainland China.

ARTICLE HERE

 

UBER - Uber is coming back to Broward County.  Broward County (Fort Lauderdale, FL) commissioners finalized a new ordinance Tuesday for ride-sharing services such as Uber and Lyft. The ordinance passed in a 6-2 vote. The amended ordinance comes after Uber suspended its service in Broward County on July 31 after the county passed new requirements for ride-sharing drivers, including county background checks and a mandatory chauffeur's license.

ARTICLE HERE

INDUSTRY NEWS

Macau Airport Traffic - Macau International Airport handled over 120,000 passengers during the National Day golden week of holidays in the mainland this month, 6% more than in the corresponding period last year, the operator says. 

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: A positive and consistent with the visitation data. GGR growth is much more difficult to come by. 

 

Macau Tourist Price Index -  The Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) indicated that for the third quarter of 2015 the Tourist Price Index dropped by 2.72% YoY to 131.46, the first decline since the third quarter of 2002.  Notable decrease were observed in the price index of Accommodation (-10.88%) and Clothing & Footwear (-6.96%); meanwhile, price index of Food, Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco; Transport & Communications; and Entertainment & Cultural Activities increased by 5.87%, 3.94% and 3.14% respectively.

ARTICLE HERE

 

Macau Consumer Confidence - The Macau University of Science and Technology’s index of consumer confidence in the city fell by 5.09% to 81.57 in the third quarter of this year.  

ARTICLE HERE

 

China Macro - China's imports slumped by nearly 18% YoY to 924 billion yuan in September, while exports slipped by 1.1% YoY to 1.30 trillion yuan, Customs said. But that was an improvement on August's decline and better than the 6% drop forecast in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News.

ARTICLE HERE

  

REGIONAL REVENUES (SEPT): 

  • Iowa SS GGR:  +2.1% YoY
    • BYD: +9.1% YoY
  • Missouri SS GGR: +3.6% YoY
    • PENN: +9.2% YoY

Takeaway: As predicted, September looking much better in regional gaming than August. Earnings visibility for BYD and PENN looks good.


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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