• Oct 8: Hedgeye Macau call 2:30pm


AWAY- HomeAway announced the acquisition of vacation rental startup Dwellable.  Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but CEO Kirby Winfield said it was a positive outcome for investors. Dwellable raised just $2 million in funding — a pittance compared to other heavily-funded competitors in the online vacation rental arena.   



CCL - Australia's P&O and Princess ships are set to be reshuffled to meet increased demand for local holidays at sea, Carnival Australia announced yesterday.  Princess Cruises' 2,000-passenger Dawn Princess will move to the P&O fleet in May 2017, while Golden Princess will remain in Australian waters throughout 2017 (instead of returning to Japan) alongside Sun Princess and Sea Princess.



NCLH -  Oceania Cruises will be offering 60 new itineraries across six continents for 2016/2017.  Never-before-sailed ports of call for the line include Burnie, Tasmania; Ensenada, Mexico; Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea; and Harvest Caye, Belize.  Sirena will debut in April and take on Mediterranean Itineraries before heading to the Caribbean and Pacific for the winter.



UBER - Uber is setting up shop in the Shanghai Experimental Free Trade Zone by incorporating a company called Shanghai Wubo Information Technology with registered capital of RMB2.1 billion (approx: $33 million).  The company also announced it would invest up to RMB6.3 billion (approx: $991 million) to maintain its long-term and sustained development in China and is now preparing to apply to become a fully-licensed car-hire platform. 



Golden Week Update- In the first six days of the National Day golden week of holidays in the mainland, Macau had 938,197 visitors, the Macau Government Tourist Office says.  The office says mainlanders made up 85.2% of the visitors. 

The total number of visitors was 8% higher than in the equivalent period last year and the number of mainlanders visiting was 6.3% higher.

LEISURE LETTER (10/8/2015) - AWAY, CCL, NCLH, UBER - GW10 8 2015 5 52 56 AM


Takeaway: Month to date GGR is still down YoY  but we think the numbers will look much better than trend when we get them next week.



  • Illinois SS GGR: -5.4% YoY
    • PENN SS GGR: +0.6% YoY
  • Ohio SS GGR: +5.3% YoY
    • PENN SS GGR: +10.0% YoY

Takeaway: IL was a bit of a disappointment but the other states have come in strong, as we expected. PENN crushed it in its most important state (Ohio) and held up better than most in IL. 

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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