Please note that we are adding Wayfair (W) to the SHORT SIDE today.
Our Retail team led by veteran Sector Head Brian McGough will send subscribers a full research note next week explaining our bearish thesis on the stock.
On today's Macro Overlay, Keith ranks all of the names currently on the Investing Ideas list in the face of Friday's (expectedly) disappointing jobs report.
Takeaway: We are removing Foot Locker from Investing Ideas today.
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
Takeaway: Wishful thinking does not trump precedent set by the prior CRJs.
P and SX are worlds apart in their proposals, but the big difference is that SX is looking for a steady increase off the Web III rates, while P is asking for a massive reset. We can all exchange jabs on who has the better benchmark, but unless P is the clear winner, it will likely be the loser since its proposal is the one that deviates most from prior rates set by the CRB (see the below quote for context). In short, P was playing from behind before the game even started.
“the rates in these negotiated agreements serve as a caution to us not to depart radically from past rates where we cannot be confident, based on the quality of the benchmark evidence in the record, that the magnitude of such a departure is fully supported in the target market.”
- Web III Copyright Royalty Judges
As we mentioned during our call last week (P: Webcaster IV = Powder Keg), the benchmarks matter most, and this is where P has the weakest argument of all the players involved. Below we discuss each of the major benchmarks, with supporting slides from our deck.
Below are the slides from our call last week specifically discussing the Web IV benchmarks. Let us know if you would us to send over the the full deck and replay.
So, Hurricane Joaquin looks like a "no-show" this weekend along the East Coast of the United States. The U.S. jobs market? Well that there is another story...Talk about a stink bomb of a jobs report today. Just awful.
As anyone who subscribes to our research products knows, we've been the non-consensus financial research firm out front-and-center making the contrarian call on slower-for-longer (economy) and lower-for-longer (Fed rates).
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In this brief excerpt from a recent edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye Restaurants Sector Head Howard Penney discusses the unintended consequences of raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to $15 an hour. According to Penney, the industry can’t afford it, people will get fired and stores will close.
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BONUS! Is 'Mobile Order & Pay' the Holy Grail for Starbucks?
If you missed it...Check out Penney's review of the new Starbucks Mobile Order & Pay app and how it plays into his long-term view on the company.
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