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Fed Fades

“Space by itself, and time by itself, are doomed to fade away into the mere shadows, and only a kind of union of the two will preserve independent reality.”

-Albert Einstein

 

I like to use short quotes – because, in this day and age, people tend to have a short attention span. I’m one of those people. Most of us all are. It’s ok, really – to talk and write about our human issues. Most of us have them.

 

I’m using a longer-form quote this morning because, if you read it slowly, you’ll find the essence of our macro forecasting #process. Instead of time and space, substitute growth and inflation – and you’ll get the rate of change point on policy.

 

Rate of change with a dynamic/accurate forecast - that’s all we’re using to front-run the Fed. We don’t need inside information. It’s all there, in the data. Growth and inflation slowing. The Fed eventually sees this reality, but on a lag.

Fed Fades - No rate hike cartoon 09.17.205

NOTE: Join Keith LIVE this morning on The Macro Show. Joining him will be a special guest ... maverick Energy/MLP analyst Kevin Kaiser. Click here for access.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I watched the Fed presser from my wife’s room in the hospital. That was a first. The perspective of the moment gave me tremendous pause. After being incredibly blessed with the gift of our 4th child (Reese McCullough), I could actually think.

 

And I wasn’t thinking so much about why the Fed didn’t raise rates. Unless your investment process lives in a Newtonian framework (where time and space are constant), you get what we have been explaining (via the data) all year long:

 

  1. GROWTH: is #LateCycle and will be slower (again) in Q3 than it was in Q2
  2. INFLATION: misreported, yes – in the area code of the Fed’s 2% “target”, no

 

I was actually thinking about what I never would have thought a child born into a life in America would have to endure: un-elected-central-planners and bureaucrats determining not only the purchasing power of The People, but market direction.

 

While moneys may be “cheap”, these markets aren’t “free.” Are they politicized? Yes. But, much more importantly, they are hostage to the most un-American ideal of all – mediocrity.

 

Why, in a country where immigrants like me are pursuing the American dream, has one of the beacons of capitalism (the US stock market) been drowned by mediocre analysis and forecasting? What happened to the pursuit of excellence?

 

I digress…

 

I know the establishment doesn’t want me to inspire change or give them a speech. There’s no compensation scheme for them in that. Back to what most people want – what to do with this mess of market forecasts and expectations?

 

  1. GROWTH – the Fed is going to be wrong on 2H forecasts (again), but just cut their 2016 GDP to a range of 2.2-2.6%
  2. INFLATION – the Fed’s PCE forecast of 0.3-0.5% for 2015 implies no rate hike in DEC

 

No hike in DEC?

 

This isn’t that complicated. Get the forecast right, and you’ll get the Fed’s next move right. Not only is Yellen’s 2016 GDP estimate still way too high, but she said, point blank, that the Fed won’t raise until “inflation is at 2%.”

 

You realize that you’d need to see Oil reflate back to something > $75/barrel to get anywhere close to that PCE inflation number, right? Ed, is that the next bull market catalyst? Higher gas prices and higher-all-time-highs in US rents?

 

It’s a good thing that through Policies to Inflate asset prices via Down Dollar, that Yellen says the Fed has had no impact on inequality in America. What would the all-time highs in the #1 cost of living (shelter) have to do with it?

 

Markets re-priced those assets (rate sensitive ones)  in a hurry yesterday:

 

  1. Housing UP
  2. Utilities UP
  3. REITS UP

 

Bonds (and any stock that looks like a slow-growth Yield Chasing bond) straight up, as 2-year Treasury Yields crashed in a few hours of trading (dropping from 0.83% to 0.66%, in yield terms). Oh, and our new long Gold position? Up too!

 

I think the Fed calls that “price stability”, or was it “transitory”?

 

What’s also transitory is this thing called the economic cycle. And since US employment, wage growth, and consumer confidence, have all already put in their #LateCycle peaks, what’s next is trivial. More slowing, in rate of change terms.

 

So give this thing some time and space and ask yourself what the Federal Reserve is going to do in December when GDP, at best, has a 1% in front of it. It could easily have a 0% in front of it for Q3. That’s when the Fed will fade, again.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.12-2.24% (bearish)

SPX 1
USD 94.11-95.69

Gold 1099-1145

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Fed Fades - zz chart day 09.18.15 chart2


#GrowthSlowing

Client Talking Points

UST 2YR

The UST 2YR Yield completely jacked whoever was looking for the rate hike, dropping 20% (crashing) from 0.83% to 0.66%, in a day! This is exactly what happened in OCT of 2011 don’t forget – and as U.S. growth data slowed in Q4 of 2011, yields plummeted.

GOLD

Gold is one of the best assets to be long (and stay long, as opposed to U.S. Equity beta) into the Fed meeting showing +0.6% follow through this morning; as the Fed tries to devalue the Dollar + Rates fall, Gold loves that.

DAX

German stocks do not love Dollar Down, Euro Up (to $1.14 this morning, top-end of its current 1.12-1.14 risk range). Don’t forget our #EuropeSlowing Macro Theme as the DAX drops -1.9% this morning and moves into crash territory (-20% from the April peak).

Asset Allocation

CASH 73% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 6%
FIXED INCOME 21% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

MCD is one of Sector Head Howard Penney's favorite names. He thinks McDonald's is finally emerging from the doldrums and is doing everything they need to do to fix the company domestically.

 

Penney believes there is not only a huge inflection point coming for the profitability of the company, but also for their sales. He thinks this means Wendy’s, Jack In the Box, Sonic will suffer a bit as MCD begins to take its market share back.

PENN

Bottom Line here? September regional gaming revenue growth should accelerate meaningfully from August and provide a catalyst for the stock. Our bull thesis on PENN appears very much intact.

TLT

In a higher volatility, growth-slowing environment, you want low-beta exposure (stocks that move less than the market) and a larger allocation to long-term Treasuries.

 

In the recent Macro Overlay video series exclusively for Investing Ideas subscribers, Keith rank-orders our top investing ideas positions from a fundamental macro and style factor perspective (low-beta, big cap liquidity, slower growth):

 

  1. Treasuries (TLT)
  2.  “Something that looks like Treasuries” (EDV)
  3. Gold (GLD)
  4. Low-Beta, Big-Cap liquidity: McDonalds
  5. Low-Beta, Big Cap Liquidity: General Mills

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

We Made the Call (AGAIN) https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/46405-we-made-the-call-again … via @hedgeye

#Fed #Rates #markets

cc @KeithMcCullough @mablum

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Vision is the art of seeing the invisible.

Jonathan Swift

STAT OF THE DAY

86% of the time spent on mobile devices is behind apps.


The Macro Show Replay | September 18, 2015

 


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

September 18, 2015

September 18, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

September 18, 2015 - Slide2

September 18, 2015 - Slide3

September 18, 2015 - Slide4

 

BEARISH TRENDS

September 18, 2015 - Slide5

September 18, 2015 - Slide6 

September 18, 2015 - Slide7

September 18, 2015 - Slide8

September 18, 2015 - Slide9

September 18, 2015 - Slide10

September 18, 2015 - Slide11


We Made the Contrarian "Lower-For-Longer" Call

By now you've almost certainly read or heard the highly-anticipated Fed "news."

 

No rate hike.

 

With a global slowdown (which we called well before our competition and the Fed for that matter) and nervous financial markets staring them in the eyes, our omnipotent central-planners blinked and held its key federal funds rate unchanged. 

 

What you may not have know is that our subscribers were prepared. We have been on record for many months now (please see examples below) calling for precisely what the Fed said today:

 

Lower. For. Longer.

 

We Made the Contrarian "Lower-For-Longer" Call - Growth cartoon 06.03.2015

(Cartoon above originally published on June 3, 2015)

 

On a related note, here's a tweet Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote around the same time:

 

We Made the Contrarian "Lower-For-Longer" Call - z km 99

 

Fast-forward to earlier this afternoon, McCullough tweeted the following:

 

"Yellen is simply not as good at her forecasting job as Hedgeye is."


Now, some people may interpret that as braggadocio. We respectfully disagree. What's going on right now in the U.S. and around the globe is serious business affecting real people from all walks of life.

 

Our proactive macro team has been all over this non-consensus, "lower-for-longer" Fed rate hike and growth-slowing call. We were contrarian and we were correct.

 

Again.

 

Take a look at the video below from The Macro Show. It's callled "The Fed Is Going To Be Lower (Easier) For Longer" and was released this past spring. It shows what our contrarian macro team led by McCullough has been warning about for some time now.

 

 

We invite you to take a deeper look at our contrarian research. Click here to learn more about how you can begin getting a step or two ahead of the herd and protect your portfolio.

 

There's a better way. We promise.


Cartoon of the Day: No Rate Hike

Cartoon of the Day: No Rate Hike - No rate hike cartoon 09.17.205

 

Earlier this afternoon, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough tweeted the following:

 

"Yellen is simply not as good at her forecasting job as Hedgeye is." 

 

Some may interpret that as braggadocio. We respectfully beg to differ. What's going on right now around the globe is serious business affecting real people from all walks of life. Our proactive macro team has been absolutely all over this non-consensus, "lower-for-longer" Fed and growth-slowing call. We were correct.

 

Again. 

 

We invite you to take a deeper look at our contrarian research. Click here to learn more about how you can begin getting a step or two ahead of the herd and protect your portfolio. 


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