Excerpt from a Real-Time Alert signal issued last week by Keith McCullough:
...The problem with making a call on POLICY (from here into the Fed meeting next week) is that I have no idea what the Fed is going to do. My confusion on POLICY risk should not to be confused with:
A) What they should have done - started raising rates in SEP 2013, so that they'd have room to cut, eventually and/or
B) What they should do now - nothing as tightening into a slowdown isn't modern day monetary policy rules
What scares the hell out of me is that they still don't know what they want to do - and they have to decide within a week.
Will that decision be based on what the US Equity Futures do in the next 3 hours or 3 days of trading? Or will it be based on "proving they can" despite Fund Fund Futures saying they shouldn't? Consensus Macro may not, but we know growth (globally and locally) is slowing. We don't know what Janet Yellen is going to do with that. So I'd rather take down some Treasury Bond market exposure to an open-the-envelope event, then revisit on the event.