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Macro Reversals

Client Talking Points

UST 2YR

After 6 tries in 6 months, the UST 2YR Yield ripped through 0.75% resistance to 0.82% - what does it mean? Moreover, what did it mean when it ripped to this same level in OCT 2011, before crashing to 0.16%? Looked like a big asset allocation move to us – German and Swiss 10s at their 1 month highs as well – we’re keeping exposure low into this very event risk Fed day; reacting at extremes has not worked.

VOLATILITY

Ironically, nothing in equity volatility space really changed on the latest U.S. stock market rip. Our immediate-term risk range for VIX is still implying 21-29 and intermediate-term it’s 18-41. The rates move wasn’t driven by good economic data – and if a Fed Hike was leaked, why is Oil +1.7% this morning (and Oil & Gas stocks +1.8% yesterday)?

BETA

The most unnerving part about the equity/commodity move is that A) it still had a lot of Dovish Fed expectations embedded in it and B) it came on very slow volume (Total U.S. Equity Market Volume -8% vs. the 1 month average); bearishness (net SHORT position in SPX Index futures/options contracts) alone could have explained the pop – but there’s a lot going on here, so we’re going to wait/watch.

 

**Tune into a special Housing edition of The Macro Show with Housing analysts Josh Steiner and Christian Drake - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 73% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 6%
FIXED INCOME 21% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

MCD is one of Sector Head Howard Penney's favorite names. He thinks McDonald's is finally emerging from the doldrums and is doing everything they need to do to fix the company domestically.

 

Penney believes there is not only a huge inflection point coming for the profitability of the company, but also for their sales. He thinks this means Wendy’s, Jack In the Box, Sonic will suffer a bit as MCD begins to take its market share back.

PENN

Bottom Line here? September regional gaming revenue growth should accelerate meaningfully from August and provide a catalyst for the stock. Our bull thesis on PENN appears very much intact.

TLT

In a higher volatility, growth-slowing environment, you want low-beta exposure (stocks that move less than the market) and a larger allocation to long-term Treasuries.

 

In the recent Macro Overlay video series exclusively for Investing Ideas subscribers, Keith rank-orders our top investing ideas positions from a fundamental macro and style factor perspective (low-beta, big cap liquidity, slower growth):

 

  1. Treasuries (TLT)
  2.  “Something that looks like Treasuries” (EDV)
  3. Gold (GLD)
  4. Low-Beta, Big-Cap liquidity: McDonalds
  5. Low-Beta, Big Cap Liquidity: General Mills

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

NEW VIDEO (1:30 min)

The Death of U.S. Exceptionalism https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/46355-mccullough-the-death-of-u-s-exceptionalism… via @KeithMcCullough

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Concentration is the secret of strengths in politics, in war, in trade, in short in all management of human affairs.

Ralph Waldo Emerson

STAT OF THE DAY

Total U.S. Equity Market Volume yesterday was down -8% and -11% vs. the 1-month and 1-year averages.


UNFI | LOVE THE LONG THESIS

United Natural Foods (UNFI) is on our Hedgeye Consumer Staples Best Ideas list as a LONG.

 

We recently presented a Black Book on our UNFI LONG thesis (click HERE for replay). We believe in the strong growth prospects that this company has and that the risks to the business have been overblown.

 

UNFI | LOVE THE LONG THESIS  - CHART 1

 

FOURTH QUARTER 2015 RESULTS & 2016 OUTLOOK

There were no surprises in this announcement as everything came in in-line with the numbers that were preannounced a few weeks ago. Although, notably there was a CFO change, as Mark Shamber will be leaving the company, to be replaced by Mike Zechmeister General Mills’ Yoplait Division Finance Officer. Revenue for the quarter was $2.06bn matching consensus estimates of $2.06bn. UNFI reported 4Q15 EPS of $0.72 also matching consensus estimates of $0.72.

 

Notably, gross margin for 4Q15 was down 109bps YoY to 15.3%. The decrease was primarily attributable to the dilution from Tony’s, the declining value of the Canadian dollar, lower fuel surcharges and a shift in mix of sales. The company will be lapping the effect of the Canadian dollar during 2Q16 around the November or December timeframe.

 

We are looking at fiscal 2015 as a rebuilding year for UNFI, as they invested in growing their infrastructure, fully integrated the Tony’s business and lost a big contract with Albertsons. We believe that their newly built capacity in shelf-stable and perishable, will afford them the ability to go out and obtain large accounts across the country.

 

The outlook for 2016 is just confirmation of the previously announced guidance, estimated sales in the range of $8.51 to $8.67, an increase of about 4% to 6%. Adjusted earnings per diluted share for fiscal year 2016 are expected to be in the range of $2.86 to $2.98, an increase of 0.4% to 4.6%.

 

GROWTH ― ORGANIC AND M&A

UNFI saw strong organic growth in 4Q15, Supernatural (Whole Foods Market) organic sales increased by 10%, Supermarket organic sales grew 2.6%, Independent channel grew 3.6% organically, lastly, Foodservice sales were up 23.7% organically, showing that this small business could prove as a strong growth opportunity for the company.

 

Management spoke to their robust distribution system that they have invested in over the last five years. They are prepared to fill this capacity with new customers, and to grow relationships with current customers.

 

The success of this company is dependent on organic growth but equally as important is growth through M&A. This is a hot topic on calls, analysts often asking: What are you looking at? How are valuations looking? UNFI management talks more openly about M&A than most companies. When asked about the size of a potential M&A deal and a playbook for success, on this call Steve Spinner (CEO) responded simply with “go large.” The larger companies have infrastructure and processes already in place making them much easier to acquire than smaller companies.

 

From the way Steve was talking about current M&A discussions they are having, we get the feeling that they are weeks away from announcing something. We know given their history that they are very smart with their cash and will stay within their guidelines when acquiring a company. And potential sellers know this because they have been so firm in the past, if owners want to sell, UNFI is the only game in town to sell to.

 

MANAGEMENT CHANGE

Whether Mark Shamber’s exit was a forced one or a personal decision doesn’t really matter to us. Mike Zechmeister is a great choice to fill in this role and a big win for UNFI. His resume from General Mills speaks for itself, working across the company in all major roles over the last 25 years, from Sales, Treasury, VP Finance Pillsbury and most recently the VP Finance in the Yoplait Division. Finance has a big voice at the table at General Mills and he led the charge to return the Yoplait division back to growth.  

 

I (Shayne Laidlaw) worked with Mike personally during my first year at General Mills and I can’t say enough about what a great leader he is. He is one of the smartest people you will find in not only finance but at the entire company, he leads with a no nonsense mindset which drove strong results at GIS. Mike will be able to bring his widespread experience from GIS and arguably a higher level of experience to the CFO role at UNFI.

 

Besides the obvious on his resume, Mike brings the process knowledge that General Mills instills in all its leadership. He has strong experience in refrigerated production and distribution, as well as experience with Holistic Margin Management (HMM), GIS’s cost savings initiative, which he can help bring to UNFI.

 

From a personal decision stand point I have not spoken with Mike yet but he is not a person that would take a role with a sinking company. He obviously sees potential in the business going forward, and I would definitely trust his judgement.

 

HEDGEYE OPINION

This story is still unfolding but everything seems to be headed down the right path. We strongly believe in UNFI’s ability to grow sales organically, and M&A will supplement this growth along the way. We believe current valuations are a generational opportunity to buy this stock, as risks to the business have been far overblown.

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 


The Macro Show Replay | September 16, 2015

 


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September 16, 2015

September 16, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

September 16, 2015 - Slide2

September 16, 2015 - Slide3

September 16, 2015 - Slide4

 

BEARISH TRENDS

September 16, 2015 - Slide5

September 16, 2015 - Slide6 

September 16, 2015 - Slide7

September 16, 2015 - Slide8

September 16, 2015 - Slide9

September 16, 2015 - Slide10

September 16, 2015 - Slide11


August Restaurant Sales and Employment Trends

Black Box Sales, Traffic

Black Box released same-restaurant sales and traffic estimates for the month of August that showed slight improvement sequentially, although still down YoY. Same-restaurant sales grew to +1.7% up 10bps sequentially, but down 40bps YoY and same-restaurant traffic decreased -1.1%, a 10bps sequential improvement, and down 60 bps YoY.

August Restaurant Sales and Employment Trends - CHART 1

August Restaurant Sales and Employment Trends - CHART 2

 

Restaurant price increases are continuing to taper off, after the nearly 12-months of increases. Not surprisingly, after the last three months of flat to down pricing, traffic is continuing to accelerate month over month.  As you can see from the chart below, the divergence between the operators taking price and a decline in traffic is reversing and it looks like they are headed to cross again. In August there was a continuation of the uptick in traffic we saw in July, although slightly less of a sequential improvement.

August Restaurant Sales and Employment Trends - CHART 3

 

Knapp August Sales Trends

Knapp reported that comparable restaurant sales in August 2015 were +0.9% for same-store sales and -1.0% for guest counts.  August comparable restaurant sales represent a sequential acceleration of +50bps, additionally traffic sequentially is up 30bps for the month.  On a 2-year basis, sales accelerated to +0.8% and traffic decelerated at a slower pace, down -1.5%. 

 

Employment Growth Slowing

In the month of August we saw a marked improvement in the employment trend, driven by growth within the 20-24 YOA cohort. The downward trend that we were concerned about seems to have reversed; continued growth among younger workers is encouraging for the quick service segment. The losses among the 45-54 YOA cohort continued in this month, down -0.43% YoY and -24bps sequentially.

 

August Employment Growth Data:

  • 20-24 YOA +3.1% YoY; +245.2 bps sequentially
  • 25-34 YOA +2.35% YoY; +4.3 bps sequentially
  • 35-44 YOA +1.26% YoY; -3.6 bps sequentially
  • 45-54 YOA -0.43% YoY; -23.9bps sequentially
  • 55-64 YOA +1.57% YoY; -95.1bps sequentially

 

August Restaurant Sales and Employment Trends - CHART 4

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 


Cartoon of the Day: Disappearing Spanish Bulls

Cartoon of the Day: Disappearing Spanish Bulls - z xx

The Spanish stock market is down over -10% in the last month as its negative divergence in Europe continues.


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