Asian Stagflation...

On 5/28 I wrote a note titled "If Emerging Asian currencies crash, does it matter?". It was a rhetorical question with an implied conclusion related to global markets.

Now that Q2 is winding down, and Asian currency weakness is pervasive in daily trading (ex the Chinese Yuan which continues to make new ytd highs), we can look back on what was a forward looking indicator of Asian economic weakness to come.

Across Asian currencies, the Philippine Peso was weakest in Q2, losing close to 7% of its value. The South Korean Won was next, losing -5.3% of its value. Negative "Trend" lines in Asian currency trading are beginning to correlate to the downside.

In considering the "its global this time" bullish narrative, the continued fallout in the Vietnamese Dong, the Thailand Baht, and the Indian Rupee must be concerning investors who are levered long the region.

Asian economic growth is clearly slowing, as inflation continues to accelerate.

KM

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