prev

Asian Stagflation...

On 5/28 I wrote a note titled "If Emerging Asian currencies crash, does it matter?". It was a rhetorical question with an implied conclusion related to global markets.

Now that Q2 is winding down, and Asian currency weakness is pervasive in daily trading (ex the Chinese Yuan which continues to make new ytd highs), we can look back on what was a forward looking indicator of Asian economic weakness to come.

Across Asian currencies, the Philippine Peso was weakest in Q2, losing close to 7% of its value. The South Korean Won was next, losing -5.3% of its value. Negative "Trend" lines in Asian currency trading are beginning to correlate to the downside.

In considering the "its global this time" bullish narrative, the continued fallout in the Vietnamese Dong, the Thailand Baht, and the Indian Rupee must be concerning investors who are levered long the region.

Asian economic growth is clearly slowing, as inflation continues to accelerate.

KM

Euro Zone Inflation Up again In June...

European stock markets are generally weak today partly because ECB chief, Jean-Claude Trichet, is being vindicated by the facts. Euro zone inflation bumped higher again in June to +4% year over year, up from May's +3.7%.

Trichet's commentary was as hawkish as usual. He is focused on inflation, and with a Euro priced at 1.58, he is looking much more like the proverbial king of the currency hill than those "King Dollar" fans of yesteryear would like to admit.

KM

Inflation? Huh? ... Sometimes Pictures Make People Accountable

Since I left Wall Street at the end of October, I have had a lot of people tell me I was out to lunch with my inflation call. Finally, inflation is a consensus concept. Now, I'm looking for signals that may time the process of a top.

For the sake of accountability, I have attached a chart of the CRB Commodities Index since that snapshot in time. From October of 2007 to last week's all time high of 464, this index of 19 commodities is up +45%.

Facts can be stubborn things, indeed.
KM

(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Spanish Bears...

Despite Torres locking down the Euro Cup yesterday, the poor Spanish centric investor had to wake up to more selling this morning. Spain's IBEX Index is down another -1% today, taking the stock market to -25% from its October 07' highs.

If there was such a thing as "CNBC Spain", the commentators wouldn't be debating whether or not their stock market is a "Bear". This is just plain ugly.

As a consolation prize for losing yesterday, German's DAX index is also down close to -1% on the day, taking the decline in German stocks to -21% since their 2007 highs.

It is global this time, indeed.
KM

India' Sensex Index down another -2.5% overnight...

India woke up to an alarm clock of more selling this morning, and ended the trading day down another -2.5%, taking the Sensex Index down -36% from the its global this time" peak.

I highly doubt the government will intervene here and impose downside market limits like they did in Pakistan last week. Even if you are a country pretending to be a capitalist, that kind of government intervention is over the top.

Look for another interest rate hike in India in the coming weeks. Chinese central bank head, Zhou, made comments overnight that he certainly is not ruling out further rate hikes either.

Global Cost of Capital is going higher. Global Access to Capital is tightening. This is another reason why everything "Ch-India" is crashing.

KM

(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Asia's Slowdown Continues to Broaden...

Stocks in Thailand lost another -1% overnight, as the reaching effects of Asian Stagflation continue to get more appropriately priced into Asian equities.

There was an interesting article this morning in the Bangkok Post citing the slowdown in Phuket tourism industry. "The hotel occupancy rate in May and June, the trough of the low season, was only 10-15% compared with 50% in the same period last year. The low rate was attributed mainly to high oil prices and the resulting surge in airfares."

The US Dollar's pervasive weakness, and Wall Street's downturn altogether, have misunderstood and broadening effects on consumer discretionary spending, globally.

It is global this time, indeed.
KM

(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

next