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McCullough: 1987 Redux?

 

On The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses what he calls the “Central Planning War Gone Wild” and advises against waiting for a singular catalyst to usher in the “Big Thing.” According to McCullough, in rate of change terms, there's reason to believe that it's already happening. He adds that there’s no reason why anyone should be surprised if U.S. stocks fell 10-20% from here.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

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3 (Very) Important Charts On Global Growth Slowing

Takeaway: If you don't do macro, rest assured that macro will do you.

3 (Very) Important Charts On Global Growth Slowing - Growth cartoon 06.10.2015

 

Check out the chart below. What you're looking at is one of the most important #GrowthSlowing charts in Global Macro for the next three years. (If you don't get demographics, you don't get the "Slower-For-Longer" theme)

*  *  *

3 (Very) Important Charts On Global Growth Slowing - z z macro 1

 

Here's another reality check. Baby Boomers are past peak in spending. 


3 (Very) Important Charts On Global Growth Slowing - z z macro 2

 

Finally, here's China and its contribution to Global GDP. It matters a lot more than Old Wall is presently pitching.


3 (Very) Important Charts On Global Growth Slowing - zz macro 3

 

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Must Have More #Cowbell

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

#Pattern: economic data disappoints = promise of more “stimulus” --> Nikkei +7.7% overnight in its best day since OCT 2008. Never mind what the OCT 08’ bear market bounce signaled, of the Top 6 moves (ever) in Nikkei 3 of them came in 1990 as the U.S. was entering recession and 1 was in 1987 where everything bounced, after the crash.

COPPER

Classic Bear Market bounce in Copper (+5% yesterday, but still -10% in the last 3 months) after signaling oversold. Everything from KOSPI to the Dr. Copper looks the same “off the lows” – bear market bounces generally bounce higher than bull market rally days do.

UST 2YR

Can you spot the noise within the consensus expectation? This is the 6th time in 6 months that the short-end of the curve has bounced to 0.75% - will it be 6 for 6 on failing here? If no (and the Fed Hikes into both a slowdown and Fed Fund Futures not expecting it), we think SPX can retest 1902, no problem.

Asset Allocation

CASH 68% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 4%
FIXED INCOME 28% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

The franchisees voted YES on the proposal to launch All Day Breakfast nationwide at all 14,318 U.S. locations. This is a very important, monumental move by CEO Steve Easterbrook. It will define his legacy as the CEO that changed McDonald's (and the rest of the industry) for many years to come. In 2016, if MCD (with all day breakfast and an improved value message) can drive same-store sales up by 5%, the system will generate $1.9bn in incremental system-wide sales. 

 

As noted in our survey we released on July 27th, it is evident that All Day Breakfast (ADB) will be a game changer for the company. Breakfast is the single most requested item by McDonald’s customers. Listening to the customer is a tried and true way to succeed.

PENN

Following our recent visit to Plainridge and meetings with senior management, we reiterate our positive Penn National Gaming thesis.  Stability in regional markets provides good earnings visibility while expected strong contributions from Plainridge and Jamul next year should provide a nice 2 year growth story.

 

Regional gaming likely cooled off in August following a strong July.  While that could provide some consternation as the states begin releasing August gaming revenues later this week, the YoY slowdown is more related to quantitative factors rather than the health of the regional gaming customer.  September should quickly provide evidence of that.

TLT

The labor market peaks late cycle and the trend in key employment data suggest things are going from great to good (marginal changes matter). The ADP employment report showed a sequential acceleration, printing +190K vs. +185K in July. But to be clear, this series peaked at over +200K additions in the first couple of months of 2015. Initial jobless claims bottomed about six weeks ago. The trend in that series is moving back to the all-important 300K level. While the headline NFP number was a bomb on Friday, printing +173K for Aug. vs. estimates for +215K, the trend is also turning. This series also peaked back in February on a YoY rate-of-change basis.

 

Why do we point to all of this growth-slowing data? Because it’s meaningful.

  • As we have mentioned repeatedly Central Banks take a reactionary policy response to the data. The market is becoming more efficient at getting in front of policy the longer we venture into this modern-day central policy experiment
  • When forward-looking growth expectations are taken down, the back end of the Treasury curve flattens (this is good for TLT and EDV)
  • In reaction to more dovish policy monetary policy measures, the market likes gold over dollars coming out of central policy events

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

[NEW VIDEO]

To Be Clear, The #Markets Don’t Care What You “Feel” https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/46234-mccullough-to-be-clear-the-market-doesn-t-care-what-you-feel… via @KeithMcCullough

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Success is on the far side of failure.

 Thomas Watson Sr.

STAT OF THE DAY

42% of the domestic tablet market is controlled by Samsung and Apple, with Amazon’s tablets accounting for less than 1%. Amazon will be challenging Samsung and Apple by selling a 6-inch tablet for $50.


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Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda)

Takeaway: Mortgage activity was uneventful this past week, but Housing is quietly setting the stage for a major bull market run.

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume.

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - Compendium 090915

 

Purchase Apps: Soldiering into September | Purchase demand declined -0.9% WoW but held near the best levels QTD at 205 on the index.  On a QoQ basis, 3Q is currently tracking -1.0% sequentially while, on a year-over-year basis, activity accelerated to +27% YoY against easing comps. 

 

In short, purchase demand has seen a modest upswing to start September, remains “good” on an absolute basis and reported year-over-year growth should remain solid against easy 2H comps.  However, as we’ve highlighted, the large-scale positive reversal in 1H15 which was characterized by remarkable YoY and QoQ growth is now rearview and organic strength will need to take the hand-off from easy compares to drive ongoing improvement.  For now, Housing’s transit from Great --> Good remains a relative winner against the transit from Good --> Bad across the preponderance of global macro.    

 

 

Refi & Rates: Rates ↓, Volatility & Affordability ↑ |  Refinance activity dropped -10% in the latest week after ramping +16.8% the prior week ahead of back-to-school  and alongside the expedited retreat in treasury yields.  Rates on the 30Y FRM contract, meanwhile, rose +2bps WoW to 4.10% but remain well off the YTD highs recorded in late July.  At current interest rates, affordability remains +4.4% better than the 2014 average and sits as a modest tailwind for HPI.   

 

 

Big Picture | The big picture is that a potent factor cocktail alignment is occurring for housing on the long side as the confluence of seasonally strong 4Q/1Q trends (aka "the hope trade") converge with election year tailwinds (2016) (See our Note from earlier this morning: Election Cycle Analysis ==> Will Housing Trump the Market?. Meanwhile, HPI is accelerating (July +6.9% Y/Y vs June +5.6% Y/Y), and we've shown that HPI is a strong corollary to housing equity price performance. We'll delve into these topics and more in greater detail in our upcoming 4Q15 Housing Quarterly Themes call. 

 

 

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - Purchase index   YoY Qtrly

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - Purchase YoY

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - Purchase 2014v15v16

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - Purchase   Refi YoY

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - Purchase LT

 

Purchase Apps | Rates Ebb, Volume Flows (kinda) - 30Y FRM

 

 

 

About MBA Mortgage Applications:

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s mortgage applications index covers more than 75% of mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. It does not include loans delivered through wholesale broker and correspondent channels. The MBA mortgage purchase applications index is considered a leading indicator of single-family home sales and construction. Moreover, it is the only housing index that is released on a weekly basis. 

 

Frequency:

The MBA Purchase Apps index is released every Wednesday morning at 7 am EST.

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Rattled? How About Short-Duration Treasuries?

Editor's Note: The following chart and excerpt are from this morning's Early Look which was written by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones. Click here if you would like to learn more about how you can subscribe.

 

...Speaking of "rattled," the short-duration Treasury market is completely rattled as it relates to digesting the Fed's intentions.  In the Chart of the Day below, we show a chart of the 2-year Treasury yield, which emphasizes the inability of the 2-year to break through the 0.74% yield level.  Certainly, it has made attempts to breakout, but alas, it continues to fail as the likelihood of the Fed increasing rates gets pushed out further and further.

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Rattled? How About Short-Duration Treasuries? - z chart of day 09.09.15 chart


Rattled

“The breath of an aristocrat is the death rattle of freedom.”

-Goerg Buchner

 

While the 2016 Presidential election is still over a year away, it's fair to say the Republican and Democratic establishments are rattled right now. Completely rattled.   The candidates responsible for the rattling are none other than Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders.  While we have misgivings about both candidates, frankly, shaking up the disfunctional two party system with its embedded interests is a very good thing for America.

 

On the left, we have Vermont's self-avowed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders. Technically speaking, he is an independent who caucuses with Democrats.  He is also probably the poorest candidate in the race.  In fact, last year Hillary Clinton made more than the Sanders’ entire household net worth.

 

So, how is Sanders actually doing?  Overall, he has gained massive ground on Hillary, but according to poll aggregates he still trails her by almost 28 points for the Democratic nomination.   Interestingly, though, in New Hampshire primary polls Sanders is up more than 9 points on Hillary.  So, while he remains a true long shot, Sanders is narrowing the gap every day.

 

On the right, of course, is the omni-present Donald Trump.  At times, Trump has identified himself as a Democrat, but recently pledged that he would support the Republican nominee. For all practical purposes he represents the "Party of Trump."  Or, as David Brooks accurately wrote in the New York Times this morning, “He is a lone individual whose main cause and argument is Himself.”

 

Regardless of his intentions, so far The Donald is polling very well in the race for the Republican nomination.   This is highlighted in the attached graphic.  Since early July he has been the clear leader and is now more than 14 points ahead of second place Ben Carson.   Trump’s poll chart looks eerily similar to a chart of the Chinese stock market from earlier this year.

 

 Rattled - z middle chart

 

If the history of recent elections is any guide, it's unlikely that Trump or Sanders will prevail.  But the current state of affairs is certainly a valuable lesson for both parties. The electorate is signaling they are tired of Washington insiders and petty partisan politics.   As a result, non-traditional candidates with limited party alignment are receiving serious consideration (even those with combovers!)

 

French historian Alexis de Tocqueville summed up the challenges with the two party system more than 180 years ago when he wrote:

 

“There are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of principle.”

 

Indeed.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind...

 

On a related market and political note, our housing research team is currently doing work analyzing housing stock returns in and around an election year.  They’ve found that the general cycle, not surprisingly, goes something like this:

  • Year 4 (Election year) -> candidates promise the world / stocks price in great expectations
  • Year 1 (New President) -> honeymoon / talk of big ideas / do no harm
  • Year 2 -> Unleash hell
  • Year 3 -> Comping the comp
  • Rinse and repeat

Our team looked at housing stock returns going back to 1991. Their overwhelming conclusion was that election years are the most favorable for housing stock returns. In fact, the median return for housing stocks in an election year was an incredible 30% (with the average just a hair behind at 29%.)  If you’d like to view their research in its entirety or discuss the results of the analysis, please ping our sales team at .

 

Supporting this idea that housing stocks have the potential to outperform in the coming year is the reality that the Fed is likely to push out raising rates longer than most expect.   We penned a piece for Fortune recently highlighting five key reasons why the Fed might push the date for interest rate increases.  Not the least of which is inflation expectations, which have become downright deflationary.

 

Speaking of "rattled," the short-duration Treasury market is completely rattled as it relates to digesting the Fed's intentions.  In the Chart of the Day below, we show a chart of the 2-year Treasury yield, which emphasizes the inability of the 2-year to break through the 0.74% yield level.  Certainly, it has made attempts to breakout, but alas, it continues to fail as the likelihood of the Fed increasing rates gets pushed out further and further.

 

As you may have heard, The World Bank has offically joined the chorus of global prognosticators urging the Fed to delay a hike.  According to the World Bank’s Chief Economist:

 

“I don’t think the Fed lift-off itself is going to create a major crisis but it will cause some immediate turbulence. It is the compounding effect of the last two weeks of bad news with that China devaluation. The world economy is looking so troubled that if the US goes in for a very quick move in the middle of this I feel it is going to affect countries quite badly.”

 

Less than a week ago, the IMF also urged the Fed to delay any rate hike.  So to the extent the Fed does decide to raise rates during its Sept. 16th and Sept 17th policy meetings, it would do so against the advice of both the IMF and World Bank . . . the two institutions that were created at Bretton Woods to manage global financial stability.

 

Bottom line? If Chair Yellen and her Fed colleagues ultimately decide to raise rates in mid-September, we will all be rattled.  As will equity markets across the globe.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges (with our intermediate-term TREND call in brackets) are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.10-2.24% (bearish)

RUT 1120-1176 (bearish)

VIX 21.60-32.63 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 39.66-49.45 (bearish)

Gold 1115-1145 (bullish)

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

 Rattled - z chart of day 09.09.15 chart


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