Post Labor Day Mashup

Post Labor Day Mashup - CHART 1

 

RECENT NOTES

9/04/15 GIS | Sends the Jolly Green Giant Packing

9/02/15 HSY | THE CURRENT SET UP IS LEANING LONG

8/31/15 HAIN | LOW QUALITY & INCREASED BUSINESS RISK

8/28/15 GIS | Time to Close this Deal

8/21/15 WWAV | DON’T PANIC, BUY MORE…HAIN | PANIC, SHORT MORE

 

RECENT NEWS FLOW

Thursday, September 3

GIS / BGS | B&G Foods agrees to acquire Green Giant from General Mills for $765mm (click here for Hedgeye note)

 

Wednesday, September 2

MDLZ | Opened a new $30mm manufacturing line in Poland, in an effort to take advantage of the growth opportunity in European snacking (click here for article)

GIS | Upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley, the firm sees improved visibility from the company’s increased efforts to manage costs

 

Monday, August 31

BETR | Initiated neutral at Goldman Sachs, price target is $18, current price is $12.27, GS ran the IPO for BETR

 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Food and organic stocks that we follow outperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was down -2.4% last week, the top performer on a relative basis from our list was B&G Foods (BGS) posting an increase of +20.9%, after their acquisition of the Green Giant assets from General Mills. Worst performing company on a relative basis on our list was Hain Celestial (HAIN), which was down -4.0%.

Post Labor Day Mashup - CHART 2

 

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is bearish on a TRADE and TREND duration.

Post Labor Day Mashup - CHART 3

 

Food and Organic Companies

Post Labor Day Mashup - CHART 4

Post Labor Day Mashup - CHART 5

Post Labor Day Mashup - CHART 6

 

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

Dovish Fed article out of @WSJ as another wanna be hawk (Williams) fades alongside stocks:

 

  1. VIX – does an explicitly more dovish Fed tone down short-term volatility here? My risk range model actually implies it could as the top-end of my range on front-month VIX no longer has a 4-handle in front of it (range still elevated, but 22-36)
  2. FX – Down Dollar = Up Yen = Nikkei Down (another -2.4% overnight), so not everyone is a winner; risk ranges are narrowing though as volatility across asset classes does this am (risk range for EUR/USD narrows to $1.10-1.14)
  3. RATES – UST 10yr dropped to 2.11% on the slowest rate of change in Non-Farm Payrolls since the Labor Cycle gains peaked in FEB, then back up this morning to 2.15% with Spanish 10yr +7bps approaching parity w/ UST at 2.14%

 

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr 2.07-2.19%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more