Editor's Note: The following chart and excerpt are from this morning's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. If you're looking for a dynamic way to to get ahead of anemic consensus groupthink each morning click here to learn more.
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...While we won’t be sure until we move out further in time, with every US Jobs Report we’re becoming more sure that the peak in the latest of #LateCycle US economic indicators peaked when the cycle did.
As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (with my doodles):
- The peak (year-over-year rate of change) in both non-farm and private payroll growth was in FEB 2015
- Non-farm (NFP) payrolls have slowed from 2.34% in FEB to a YTD low of 2.09% in AUG
- Private payroll growth has slowed from 2.71% in FEB to 2.37% in AUG