Ominous

Client Talking Points

EURO

So far, the Eurocrats have not delivered enough #cowbell at Jackson Hole and the EUR/USD has stopped going down on that +0.3% – ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure’s comments were half baked and ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is there to speak for Mario Draghi – market expectations matter here… Constancio is not Draghi!

DAX

When we say ominous, we’re saying what our model sees, which is -7% of immediate-term downside in an index as what we call the “probable range.” European data this morning continues to be what it’s been, slowing – Spain’s CPI back in the red at -0.4% from +0.1% #Deflation.

S&P 500

First time we made SPY SHORT one of our Top 3 Macro Themes was July of this year (we were bullish on it in 2013) and the volatility signal here makes us actually feel like we don’t want to be right – there’s -8% of immediate-term downside in our probable range to 1822.

 

**Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 70% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 2%
FIXED INCOME 28% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

One of the ways that McDonald's is going to take market share back is through one of the most popular items on its menu—the Egg McMuffin. "I honestly believe that if there is a silver bullet, it’s all day breakfast for McDonald’s," says Restaurants Sector Head Howard Penney. "And I do believe they’re going down that road and they will do it."

 

Penney adds that we’ll probably know more about that at the November analyst meeting and what the breakfast potential will be. There’s obviously a lot of things that go around MCD doing breakfast (e.g. shrinking other parts of the menu, etc).

PENN

"We continue to like Penn National Gaming here due to stable regional gaming trends, better than expected quarterly and annual earnings, and the Plainridge and Jamul contribution to PENN’s two-year growth story," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan. 

TLT

It was a very good week for those sitting behind the long-bond coming out of the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday. During a tumultuous 5-day stretch in which the S&P 500 fell over -5%, subscribers who followed our recommendation on TLT were sheltered from the market storm and gained almost +2%. Moreover, during the past month, TLT has gained +5.7% versus a -6.8% loss for the S&P 500 (a 1,200 basis point difference). In other words, it has paid handsomely to buck the consensus tide.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Process (4min VIDEO): How We Do Asset Allocation https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/46053-process-how-we-do-asset-allocation… via @hedgeye

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

-Desiderius Erasmus Roterodamus

STAT OF THE DAY

The percentage of recent college graduates in jobs that don’t require their degree rose from 34% in 2001 to 44% in 2012.


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