The U.S. Federal Reserve has consistently indicated to investors their intentions to raise short-term interest rates this year. One of the more outspoken proponents of raising rates has clearly been Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. In a Wall Street Journal interview earlier this month, Lockhart indicated that he expected rates to increase in September. Then, just this past Monday in a speech in Berkeley, California, he once again reiterated the call for short-term rates to increase this year, even if not in September.
Right now, the consensus view of mainstream economists echoes the public statements of Lockhart and his Fed colleagues on rates. In fact, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Business Economics, 77% of economists surveyed indicated they believed the Fed would ultimately raise rates before the end of the year.
So, notwithstanding the strong consensus view that interest rates will increase this year, our firm is sticking with our long-held view that rates will remain both lower and near zero for longer than most people believe. From our analytical perch, there are five key reasons we believe this: